I absolutely adore CoX and I was as heartbroken as anybody when it shutdown. I've also never given up hope that it might return in some form but I put more faith in Codewalker's efforts than I do anywhere else and here's why:
- People in this thread are constantly saying things like 'The CoX IP is basically worthless now so why don't NCSoft just either hand it over or sell it for a nominal fee...'
Unfortunately, the CoX IP is worth a fortune. With all the goodwill the game still has and all the players who played it and enjoyed it over the years, a sequel would make a LOT of money. If I was NCSoft I wouldn't sell it for anything less than $100 million. You have to remember that NCSoft has shareholders who can wipe billions off their share price if they hear what they 'perceive' to be bad news. A headline such as "Beloved, (i.e. highly valuable) IP sold for nominal fee to fans of the game" will make NCSoft look like morons. Now I'm not saying they won't do it but we're basically hoping that the person who signs on the dotted line hasn't figured this out. That's a slim hope considering they do know what they're doing and are highly successful at doing it. I suspect that when Cryptic and others asked to buy the IP shortly after the shutdown announcement, NCSoft asked for a fee that would cover potential future earnings of a sequel. If that's true then they're aware of how much it is worth even to this day. With the success of Guild Wars 2 and the expense and subsequent flop of WildStar I wouldn't rule out an NCSoft sequel to CoX.
- Building on the above point is that part of the negotiations involve the spiritual successors getting the IP for their games so that they can claim to be a bona fide sequel. This turns the above headline into one that is even worse because now it becomes "IP potentially worth millions given away to competitors." From the value of Nexon's shares (recently sold) we know that a 15% drop in share price even in the short term would equate to half a billion dollars. Shareholders can be fickle and ruthless and NCSoft have to factor that in to these negotiations because they are a major stakeholder in everything they do.
- The other thing that strikes me is that regardless of City of Titan's origins and genuine desires to help the CoX community they are now a business with people's livelihoods and a lot of investment at stake. Nate's last comment on the negotiations was this:
"That being said I've talked to a few people within NCSoft, and the general consensus is that we've avoided any trouble thanks to our approach (inspiration, not duplication). There is a group negotiating with them for the rights to the IP, but that has been slow going due to the ongoing Nexon drama I've been led to understand."
This quote was within the context of NCSoft letting them create a CoX inspired game. In that context I read it to mean that they are trying to get permission to call CoT a sequel or use NPCs from CoX such as the Freedom Phalanx, Recluse, etc. With all their time and investment in CoT it would be very brave of them to allow the resurrection of a game they are attempting to replace. Again, I'm not saying they won't do it but it goes against good business sense. At some point they have to draw the line and put their own staff/business first. That being said if they do bring back CoX I would happily pay lots of money to CoT as a thank you even if I never played their game and I'm sure others would too.
I don't want people to read this and think I'm a pessimist, especially with the anniversary yesterday. I just think it's important to appreciate that NCSoft aren't being unreasonable in all of this. If I was in their position I wouldn't sell the IP for a nominal fee, especially to a competitor.
So what would make business sense?
Negotiating with NCSoft to have one of the spiritual successors branded CoX2 with NCSoft backing, i.e. Missing World's Media becoming an NCSoft studio similar to Paragon Studios back in the day. MWM then get assured funding and NCSoft keep control of the IP. If they let CoT get to the alpha testing stage and see what the game looks like they can assess whether they think it looks like becoming a success and then help launch the game without funding any of the development costs up to that stage.
This is pure conjecture but as a businessman this makes sense to me. If I'm right, we won't hear anything until CoT and the other spiritual successors are much further along in their development and NCSoft can choose which to support.
What would happen to the original CoX then? There's a lot of goodwill for whoever is brave enough to bring back the original whilst launching a sequel and supporting both in terms of moderators and servers. Personally I'd risk it but I'd bring back the online shop with lots of worthwhile shinies for people to buy thus minimising any financial risk to the sequel.
Hopefully I haven't upset anyone with the above musings, they are just my opinion and I'd love to be proven wrong very soon! My torch is still lit and I'm here for the longhaul. In the meanwhile I'll be enjoying the ski chalet in Paragon Chat.