New efforts!

[Thunder Glove]

If the game were really that valuable, NCSoft wouldn't have shut it down in the first place (after all, it was still profitable at the end), and they certainly wouldn't have denied Paragon Studio's request to start work on a sequel.

Yes, there was going to be a CoH2, but NCSoft wouldn't allow it.

So even if you wouldn't sell it for $100 million and think a sequel would do great, NCSoft did not and does not feel the same way.  It's worth a fortune to us, not to them.

[Draxion]

If the game were really that valuable, NCSoft wouldn't have shut it down in the first place (after all, it was still profitable at the end)

As far as I know this has never been proven and a large figure has never been reliably reported as profit post Going Rogue.  As others have pointed out, small profits that are dwindling over time, especially when servers need updating and your product isn't compatible with upcoming versions of Windows force companies to declare a product to be not worth further investment.  If you're on a downward curve with big bills coming up you have to make hard decisions.  I assumed that the whole point of Architect Entertainment was that you could put the game in maintenance mode and players would create their own content.  If they didn't do that then there must have been a good monetary reason.  My whole point is that NCSoft are not idiots and they didn't shut the game down out of spite.

I'm sure I read somewhere, (citation needed) that it was a condition of NCSoft buying full rights from Cryptic that Paragon Studios produce a big update, (that eventually became Going Rogue) that was at least as successful as City of Villains had been.  It failed to do that and proved to NCSoft that its heyday had gone and they pulled out like they said they would.

Yes, there was going to be a CoH2, but NCSoft wouldn't allow it.
So even if you wouldn't sell it for $100 million and think a sequel would do great, NCSoft did not and does not feel the same way.  It's worth a fortune to us, not to them.

I got the impression that NCSoft had green lit the sequel and Paragon were working on it.  They referenced several times that they had a super secret project which I assumed was CoH2.  In developing a sequel, NCSoft was agreeing to keep Paragon Studios and CoX going for several years (5+ years?)whilst it was developed.  This has a massive cost that NCSoft were not willing to fund when they had Wildstar and Blade and Soul in development that they thought would be better prospects.  If NCSoft didn't like the Alpha version or thought it was taking too long or Paragon Studios weren't up to the task then pulling the plug makes business sense.

There are 3 spiritual successor MMOs in development as we speak.  At least one of which is negotiating for the IP.  That should be setting off alarm bells for NCSoft that the IP shouldn't be just given away.

Not sure how I've ended up defending NCSoft here as they broke my heart along with everyone else...

[Thunder Glove]

No, the former Paragon devs said in the various AMAs and other places that the secret project (one of them, anyway) was a MOBA (tentatively titled "Project Mercury"), and that CoH2 was explicitly shut down by NCSoft.

And none of the three successor projects are trying to get the IP for themselves.  Nate, the president of MWM (who are making City of Titans), is leading the negotiations, but MWM itself is not involved.  (This is in big bold underlined letters in the "And the mask comes off" thread)  If and when the purchase is successful, Nate will have no part of the company that will then owns the right.

[Draxion]

[Ohioknight]

"There is a group negotiating with them for the rights to the IP, but that has been slow going due to the ongoing Nexon drama I've been led to understand."

This makes it sound like he's not involved anymore and in context it sounds like 'the group' he refers to is MWM trying to get the rights for use with CoT. 

I believe you are inferring something that is not implied.  Nate has said on Facebook that there are only 3 people from MWM involved in any way with the "deal" and in that context as well as his bold post he's made it very clear that MWM is NOT the group negotiating for the rights.

Also, the original idea was that the spiritual successors could license the IP, but I believe only AP 1.5 has expressed interest.  I understand that CoT, Valience, and H&V have all said they've developed their own lore and aren't interested in licensing CoH IP.

[Joshex]

pessimism is just another form of hope, by expressing negative views about the deal people are able to express their worst fears concerning their inner unspoken hope. In the process their pessimism functions as reverse psychology, with a possible ability to prod/trick the negotiation teams into handing out some information about the deal or for completion of the deal in a shorter time-frame. or at least these are the effects pessimists hope for.

All you need to know about pessimists so they don't bother you is; the views they express at this time cannot be based on fact as the final outcome is uncertain (fact is relative to time, facts change as new information becomes available). their comments are typically of the Negative Dramatic variety and so according to the laws of probability they are outside the normalcy threshold so they have a lesser chance of happening. the game returning is not outside the normalcy threshold so it has a higher probability of happening. If/When the game returns the pessimists will be those silent players who either lie or don't talk about their views about the game returning, in their head; every time someone says "Ah I knew the game would return" they will hear it as "I told you so" in a negative tone directed from others towards themselves. And they brought that on themselves.

but we don't have to be male appendages about it and rub it in, we can chose to be humble and forgive and forget. "Meh!"

it's said and done and didn't hurt anything, so, whatever.

[Draxion]

Also, the original idea was that the spiritual successors could license the IP, but I believe only AP 1.5 has expressed interest.  I understand that CoT, Valience, and H&V have all said they've developed their own lore and aren't interested in licensing CoH IP.

Ok, fair enough, you and Thunder Glove have convinced me so I'll let it drop.

I think Joshex was talking about pessimists in general rather than me in particular but i just want to go on record as saying that I have faith in the guys trying to broker a deal and I'm not trying to undermine them in any way or get them to break NDA by replying to my views.  I was just simply trying to give a business perspective on NCSoft that moves them out of the role of villain and highlights that they have acted like any large corporation with shareholders would.  I hope that understanding a bit more about why they possibly closed the game and why they might be reluctant to sell it would make the waiting easier for anyone who is wondering why it is taking so long.  The negotiators are doing an amazing job keeping the discussions going for as long as they have and if they ultimately get a result I'll be the first to say how impressed I am.  At no point have I said it's impossible to get the game back, I just value the IP more than most people and think we might be climbing a big mountain, (not an impossible mountain just a big one).  These are my opinions not a rallying cry for people to give up hope.  I've been wrong before and I'm happy to be wrong about this.

I have always believed that anything is possible.  If you have enough experts+time+resources(funding) you can achieve anything.  Including creating new code to bring the game back or getting NCSoft to give/sell us the game.  I'd support any effort that seeks to bring CoX back to life and we should stay optimistic even if the talks fail as there are still other avenues to explore.

I believe the game WILL return, it's just a matter of when and in what form.

[Arcana]

All you need to know about pessimists so they don't bother you is; the views they express at this time cannot be based on fact as the final outcome is uncertain (fact is relative to time, facts change as new information becomes available). their comments are typically of the Negative Dramatic variety and so according to the laws of probability they are outside the normalcy threshold so they have a lesser chance of happening.

I guess that explains why pessimists bother so many people.

[Golden Aurora]

I'm just waiting for the day when someone with enough knowledge and black humor begins to translate the assets into something coh-like, but not quite coh.
Ex: Statesman into Statesfan. City of Heroes into City Of Zeros. Defenders into Pretenders. As long as the text is slightly different it's not infringement I assume.

Yay for parody based derivative works and Fair Use!

I mean when you think about it, all this has been happening for years with japanese to english translations of SNES games, animes, and the like.
You take some asset, apply a patch to it, and voila, it's something new.

I guess the real question is how long the charade will go on regarding negotiations. I hope and pray it succeeds, but as a betting person it seems more likely that that ship has sailed.

That's just my opinion and musings though, don't mind me.

[Vee]

All you need to know about pessimists so they don't bother you is; the views they express at this time cannot be based on fact as the final outcome is uncertain (fact is relative to time, facts change as new information becomes available). their comments are typically of the Negative Dramatic variety and so according to the laws of probability they are outside the normalcy threshold so they have a lesser chance of happening.

If the programming thing doesn't work out you have a bright future in corporate seminars.

[Golden Aurora]

Corporate Seminars aren't too heavy on required citations, so you could be right.

[Shibboleth]

Amelia Earhart disappeared 78 years ago. Her fate remains uncertain, so it is in fact possible she is alive somewhere given she would be 118--under the longest confirmed lifespan of a human at 122 years.

I am thinking that while it is pessimism to presume she is in fact dead that most people would not object with the viewpoint.

That someone having a negative view of the likelihood of the return of CoH at this point bothers you seems to me to say more about you than them (qualified by how the express their pessimism of course).

While I am not all that hopeful at this point, stranger things and longer waits for other properties have occurred. Master of Orion is being rebooted after a long time being dead as a franchise after the disastrous Master of Orion 3. But saying you don't belive CoH will return is a very different thing to saying it won't and likewise optimists can't say it will.

So perhaps a little less bashing of pessimists?

[GenericHero05]

Amelia Earhart disappeared 78 years ago. Her fate remains uncertain, so it is in fact possible she is alive somewhere given she would be 118--under the longest confirmed lifespan of a human at 122 years.

I am thinking that while it is pessimism to presume she is in fact dead that most people would not object with the viewpoint.

That someone having a negative view of the likelihood of the return of CoH at this point bothers you seems to me to say more about you than them (qualified by how the express their pessimism of course).

While I am not all that hopeful at this point, stranger things and longer waits for other properties have occurred. Master of Orion is being rebooted after a long time being dead as a franchise after the disastrous Master of Orion 3. But saying you don't belive CoH will return is a very different thing to saying it won't and likewise optimists can't say it will.

So perhaps a little less bashing of pessimists?

Well... after 78 years, I'll start believing that CoH might not come back.

[Shibboleth]

Well... after 78 years, I'll start believing that CoH might not come back.

Ye of little faith....

[GenericHero05]

Ye of little faith....

Hey... I said "might not"

[Arcana]

Amelia Earhart disappeared 78 years ago. Her fate remains uncertain, so it is in fact possible she is alive somewhere given she would be 118--under the longest confirmed lifespan of a human at 122 years.

I am thinking that while it is pessimism to presume she is in fact dead that most people would not object with the viewpoint.

That someone having a negative view of the likelihood of the return of CoH at this point bothers you seems to me to say more about you than them (qualified by how the express their pessimism of course).

While I am not all that hopeful at this point, stranger things and longer waits for other properties have occurred. Master of Orion is being rebooted after a long time being dead as a franchise after the disastrous Master of Orion 3. But saying you don't belive CoH will return is a very different thing to saying it won't and likewise optimists can't say it will.

So perhaps a little less bashing of pessimists?

In general, I haven't seen too much bashing of people saying they simply don't think its likely the game will return; at least, I see the bashing being relatively symmetric on that score.  However, its not pessimism when people start simply making stuff up to attempt to justify their pessimism, like making presumptive comments about what they believe they can conclude from the inherent lack of direct knowledge of the process.  People who *think* the game isn't coming back is making a guess like any other.  People who *know* the game isn't coming back because of their analysis of the (lack of) information is just plain wrong.

On the other hand, if you're specifically responding to what Joshex espoused about pessimism, what are you, nuts?

[srmalloy]

I was playing it before the shutdown, everyone in the game knew why it was being shut-down because a dev had leaked it, not enough players were buying stuff from the shop and it lacked a community based atmosphere (because it had no PVE only content or maps) which turned it into a snub-fest and caused too many complaints.

summary: not enough player purchases + snub-fest + complaints = shutdown.

And I have my suspicions that a similar condition contributed to CoH's shutdown; there just wasn't enough in the cash shop that someone would buy repeatedly to make the kind of money that NCsoft would have expected from an MMO, based on their experience with their Korean-style grindfest MMOs. You bought a costume set, it was a one-time unlock for the account; you didn't have to pay to buy it for each character you had, or pay to buy it and pay again to unlock it account-wide.

[Golden Aurora]

I think CoH just didn't meet the minimum Korean MMO grinding requirement.
I mean that problem would have been easily rectified.
Just sell everything above the DO enhancement level in an ingame cash shop.
That and make you run the shard tfs for a single SO when you hit max level.

Also, ICON was way too underpriced. Each costume slot should cost $20 with a single costume change costing $5.

That's what kills me about TERA, you know. The hair/face/body changes cost like close to $10.
It's a simple sql update statement.
The same statement you use to update your xp bar, you know.
Just well.. Yeah. Fleece the customer more.

[LaughingAlex]

I think CoH just didn't mean the minimum Korean MMO grinding requirement.
I mean that problem would have been easily rectified.
Just sell everything above the DO enhancement level in an ingame cash shop.
That and make you run the shard tfs for a single SO when you hit max level.

Also, ICON was way too underpriced. Each costume slot should cost $20 with a single costume change costing $5.

That's what kills me about TERA, you know. The hair/face/body changes cost like close to $10.
It's a simple sql update statement.
The same statement you use to update your xp bar, you know.
Just well.. Yeah. Fleece the customer more.

Well, there is a game everyone knows that makes me rage beyond recognition that does the same thing and we all know it doesn't make anything in America .  Or anywhere else.

[darkgob]

Well... after 78 years, I'll start believing that CoH might not come back.

But not 77?