NCSoft Stockwatch

[NecrotechMaster]

[Edit:] I still like to see their stock plummet, since NCsoft and Kim each own about 10% of the shares. The recent drops have cost that duo twice what the new baseball team did.

i think this is the main reason why poeple are monitoring the stock prices since ncsoft, nexon, and kim himself all have a pretty good amount of the total stock shares, they are the ones losing money on the stock dropping

yes stocks themselves dont determine how a company is doing, but when the owners of said company own 25-30% of the stock, they are the ones getting burned by the stock drops

[Colette]

A brief new low of 135, but I'm not liking the current uptick back to 140. I'm still hoping to see 'em fall back to their 2008 mark.

[JaguarX]

i think this is the main reason why poeple are monitoring the stock prices since ncsoft, nexon, and kim himself all have a pretty good amount of the total stock shares, they are the ones losing money on the stock dropping

yes stocks themselves dont determine how a company is doing, but when the owners of said company own 25-30% of the stock, they are the ones getting burned by the stock drops

But it also depends on when they bought. If they bought their shares prior to May 2009, then they are still ahead by a bit even now and even if they sold today, they will walk away with a profit. But I think Kim been around since the start and thus probably had his holdings since 2003 and prior when it was about 33,000. Even when he sold some of his shares, he raked in a large profit from what he invested. The stocks will have to drop signifcantly for him to even lose money from the stock drop, below the value he bought them for. Right now he is well in the black. Not sure about Nexon and new shareholders. They might be hurting especially the relatively recent ones tha twas looking to makea quick buck and get out. Long term people probably will either wait unti the price falls a little more or hold on to what they already have. The ones that had it prior to May 2009 may cash in for a profit at this point while some may just simply hold on.

They dont seem close to their 5 year low or anywhere near crashing. Thier chart looks comparable with ups and down with many coporations that are rated as doing well.

[TimtheEnchanter]

A bunch of stuff I wouldn't want to hear no matter what company it was

Disgusting. Must be nice to be able to make a million mistakes and still not fail.

[FatherXmas]

Before Aion blew up large, looking at the 3Q of 2008, NCsoft had a trailing twelve month P/E of 29.6 meaning the price of the stock was 29.6 times the amount of earnings over the last twelve months.  Nothing new had come out recently.  Earnings had been down every quarter over that period.  Aion was a big unknown.  Stock price at the time Daewoo issued their report on NCsoft, the stock was at 44,000 with a twelve month target price of 60,000.

In 3Q of 2011, just before the peak the stock reached, NCsoft had a TTM P/E of 52.5, which is why I was saying the stock was insanely overpriced.  At the time of this Daewoo report, the stock price was 347,000 with a target price of 600,000 (?!?!).  Can we say irrational exuberance.  Knew you could.

Now using those two P/E numbers to bound the stock price using the current TTM would put the price between 102,800 and 182,200.  So not a surprise the stock is meandering about right in the middle.  It's not the best of times, it's not the worse of times. 

And considering how dismal 4Q was last year it's likely that those two numbers will go up by 40-50% at a minimum.  So unless their costs spiraled out of control or sales collapsed since 3Q, I'm expecting the stock to rebound back up to around 200,000 (149,000-264,000).  It may not be all at once but for those who are living vicariously through every NCsoft stock price drop, brace yourselves.

And if for some reason Daewoo is actually right about the fourth quarter, expect the stock to break 250,000 again.

[Kosmos]

Disgusting. Must be nice to be able to make a million mistakes and still not fail.

Get in first on an emerging market so that what few competitors you have are playing catch up and you too can get away with closing profitable ventures (CoH) while starting up unprofitable ones (the NC Dinos - that's their baseball team, which technically has been around 2 years as a "futures" team but joined the "major" Korean league for 2013).

[Kistulot]

Thanks for keeping things in perspective, FatherXmas.

It makes me wanna whine when I see one of your insightful posts that says "none of this is really special" but its better than feeling like a dip means something if it doesn't.

[Kosmos]

In 3Q of 2011, just before the peak the stock reached, NCsoft had a TTM P/E of 52.5, which is why I was saying the stock was insanely overpriced.  At the time of this Daewoo report, the stock price was 347,000 with a target price of 600,000 (?!?!).  Can we say irrational exuberance.  Knew you could.

And you chided me for saying Daewoo's projections were so insane I'd begun to doubt their honesty.

And considering how dismal 4Q was last year it's likely that those two numbers will go up by 40-50% at a minimum.  So unless their costs spiraled out of control or sales collapsed since 3Q, I'm expecting the stock to rebound back up to around 200,000 (149,000-264,000).  It may not be all at once but for those who are living vicariously through every NCsoft stock price drop, brace yourselves.

This is fairly close to what I expect. A bump after the 4Q report - which will be objectively good but still disappoint those who believed the nutty fanboi analysts - followed by a steady but minor erosion until 3Q B&S China numbers come in causing a jump up near 200k as the year comes to a close.

Let's hope the Korean government really does decide to go nuts with their tax and regulate agenda for the Korean gaming industry. Heck, who knows, if the Korean Progressives get their way maybe NCsoft will start thinking their new building should be in Austin! They can certainly get a better baseball team in the Texas League than they can in the Korean Baseball Championship.

[FatherXmas]

Nevermind, misunderstood your comment Kosmos.

[TimtheEnchanter]

Get in first on an emerging market

Isn't there a prerequisite for that? Such as, already having lots of power? 

[NecrotechMaster]

i guess the korean goverment issuing some strict laws on gaming is what we should have hope for and just take pride in falling stock when it happens lol

[FatherXmas]

Well back to 137,500, where it closed 2 trading days ago.  Now how the 4Q/annual numbers impact the price won't be reflected, likely, until Tuesday night/Wednesday early morning trading (from our POV in NA).  Traditionally the numbers aren't released until after the end of trading to give the market the maximum amount of time to digest the numbers before recklessly, I mean thoughtfully acting upon them. 

[General Idiot]

Wait, that's out now? I'd be interested to see it, if it is.

[Quinch]

Same! Nothing on the quarterlies page yet.

[Colette]

The slow dive continues. You'd think anyone who had money in this stock would have bailed long ago. The stock's been a consistent loser since November.

But of course, we'll see if the quarterlies changes things.

[FatherXmas]

Wait, that's out now? I'd be interested to see it, if it is.

Same! Nothing on the quarterlies page yet.

No.  The numbers should be released early Tuesday morning NA time (2-3a EST) after the close of Korea's market Tuesday Korea time.  So tomorrow.  Which way the stock goes, we won't know until their market opens Wednesday or our Tuesday evening.  Remember we are on opposite sides of the international date line.

The slow dive continues. You'd think anyone who had money in this stock would have bailed long ago. The stock's been a consistent loser since November.

But of course, we'll see if the quarterlies changes things.

Yes but there has to be a buyer for every seller.  All of the "technical" indicators has the stock "oversold", price too low.  The various "technical" methods to define the price range all have the stock at the bottom of those ranges.  Those two things combined will mean to some that the stock is being unfairly hammered on and therefore "on sale".  Now who can resist a sale.

When the numbers come out tomorrow, and they will be used to credit or discredit some analysts' predictions for the rest of the year, will determine if investors panic some more or go nuts and buy in because a corner has been turned.  Note there should also be some mention about the reorg of the western subsidiaries and what that means for the future.  The west is important again because of the spike in sales in NA and EU because of GW2.  And of course expect a lot of China China China ra ra ra talk.

[FatherXmas]

Okay, so they release there before the start of trading.  My bad.

And the analysts actually came in low.  It boggles the mind.

For the year game sales up 24.8%, profits up 30.6%.

For the quarter.

B&S down 17.6%
Lineage  up 69.3%
Lineage II  up 23.7%
Aion down 7%
GW2 up 159.6% (yes that's right)

GW2 had higher quarterly sales than Lineage I, II and Aion COMBINED!!11!

Combined NA and EU game sales exceeded Korea's for the quarter.

The bad news is that the parent company, excluding all their overseas subsidiaries, is now "Be in the red" (that's the way it appears in their presentation).

So overall company doing alright, except at home (egg on face).  I can see the stock climbing back up to 180,000 on fundamentals.

Edit: Actually the news that the parent was in the red 4th quarter with declining B&S sales and GW2 sales diminishing post holiday will likely put a damper on any rally.

[DarkCurrent]

There's no way Lineage is doing those kinds of numbers.

[Colette]

So, Boobs and Shame is a loser? No surprise. Given NCSoft's rep as The Game-Killer, it'll maybe last until the end of the year.

No rally, huh? Good. We'll know by the end of the week, but it looks like they're still on course for a sloooow stagnant decline. Honestly, this stock's been a loser since October 2011. They're now back where they were at their big uptick in early 2009.

What're the chances of an investor panic sending this all the way back down to 50,000?

[DarkCurrent]

It'll go down, but not sure that far.  Right now they have seen the best GW2 is ever going to do.  BS is tanking.  Wildstar is nowhere to be found.  Would you buy their stock based on that?