Author Topic: And the mask comes off.  (Read 1748715 times)

hurple

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4960 on: February 10, 2015, 10:08:31 PM »
I've forgotten, because I never built a mission around one, but could you use the outdoor mission maps for AE?

Aggelakis

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4961 on: February 10, 2015, 10:10:18 PM »
I've forgotten, because I never built a mission around one, but could you use the outdoor mission maps for AE?
http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Mission_Architect_Unique_Maps
Lots of outdoor maps. (List is not even complete!)
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hurple

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4962 on: February 10, 2015, 10:22:43 PM »
http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Mission_Architect_Unique_Maps
Lots of outdoor maps. (List is not even complete!)

Ah!  I need AE, I just came up with a new idea for an arc while looking through all those.

So, who played through Bill Willingham's AE arc?  Did and other celebrities write arcs that I missed?

MWRuger

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4963 on: February 10, 2015, 11:07:21 PM »
Mercedes Lackey wrote one if I recall.

Bill Willingham's was awesome. He ref'ed V&V for me back in the day. Great GM.
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Prism Almidu

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4964 on: February 10, 2015, 11:39:11 PM »
I know Jim Butcher wrote one, always meant to play that, never got around to it.

Ironwolf

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4965 on: February 11, 2015, 01:16:32 AM »
I was fun, based on zombies in the sewer. I teamed with him once and he asked me to play it and try it.

Prism Almidu

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4966 on: February 11, 2015, 12:41:40 PM »
Lucky you. He's one of my top 5 favorite authors. I seem to recall reading somewhere, maybe on these boards, that he kept having issues with the moderators telling him he couldn't use Harry Dresden as a character name. They weren't able to understand that he owned the copyright or something?

Ohioknight

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4967 on: February 11, 2015, 01:17:45 PM »
Lucky you. He's one of my top 5 favorite authors. I seem to recall reading somewhere, maybe on these boards, that he kept having issues with the moderators telling him he couldn't use Harry Dresden as a character name. They weren't able to understand that he owned the copyright or something?

I could see the mods having real trouble with that... Is he the real Jim Butcher? What is the state of his ownership of the character?  What licensing/contract deals have been made through his agents and publishers that we might be violating if he plays this character in our game? etc, etc.

That's a lot for a mod to have to know to make it OK
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mrultimate

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4968 on: February 11, 2015, 02:34:28 PM »
Troy Hickman wrote a great AE arc as well.

Ironwolf

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4969 on: February 11, 2015, 02:41:53 PM »
Lucky you. He's one of my top 5 favorite authors. I seem to recall reading somewhere, maybe on these boards, that he kept having issues with the moderators telling him he couldn't use Harry Dresden as a character name. They weren't able to understand that he owned the copyright or something?

Yes, he had to out himself. They were going to generic his Harry Dresden and he had to come out and say -  uh, I own Harry and I can play him if I want to!

Felderburg

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4970 on: February 11, 2015, 05:27:25 PM »
There were other ludicrous sequences as well, upgrading SOs on levelling, a mix of 75% and 80% chances, 24 straight successes followed by 6 straight failures.

Is that ludicrous? 24 / 30 = 80%
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Harpospoke

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4971 on: February 12, 2015, 12:06:16 AM »
The Wyatt Earp effect is the effect of thinking something extremely unlikely - in this case Wyatt Earp surviving all of his gunfights - must be due to something other than chance.  The problem in this case is that enough people got into gunfights back then that the odds of *one* of them coming out of many gunfights alive is a lot higher than the odds that Wyatt Earp specifically would have done so.  We only talk about Wyatt Earp because he happened to be the one that did.  The odds of winning the lottery are very slim, but someone always does.  That doesn't mean Wyatt Earp wasn't a good gunfighter, it just means we have to be extremely careful about what we attribute to chance, and what is postscript selection that has nothing to do with chance.

To be statistically blunt, the odds of Wyatt Earp surviving all his gunfights is 100%, because we already witnessed it.  We cannot calculate what it "would have been" we can only calculate what the odds of another random person surviving all of those gunfights might have been, and that is a subtle but significantly different thing.
It's even crazier with Wyatt Earp.  Not only did he survive every encounter he was ever in....he never was wounded by a bullet!

And this was a guy who was known to walk up to people who were shooting at him and whack them over the head with his handgun.

What Wyatt knew...and another factor in the equation, is that guns back then were not very accurate.

Sinistar

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4972 on: February 12, 2015, 12:18:14 AM »
What Wyatt knew...and another factor in the equation, is that guns back then were not very accurate.

Indeed, it is one thing to be the fastest gun in the West,......but how is your accuracy?  Can you really draw your gun and lock onto the target fast enough to fire accurately?
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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4973 on: February 12, 2015, 01:02:48 AM »
Yes, he had to out himself. They were going to generic his Harry Dresden and he had to come out and say -  uh, I own Harry and I can play him if I want to!
I had heard that he was a CoH player, but I could never get someone to confirm his class and powersets (I'm curious how he built Harry).

mrultimate

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4974 on: February 12, 2015, 02:30:40 AM »
Gail Simone also played CoH.

Minotaur

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4975 on: February 12, 2015, 02:41:40 AM »
Is that ludicrous? 24 / 30 = 80%

The overall total is fair, it's that you got 24 successes in a row (c 1 in 500) followed by 6 failures in a row (c 1/7000) so the chance of this happening (all the successes together and all the failures together) is less than one in a million.

Felderburg

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4976 on: February 12, 2015, 03:57:48 AM »
The overall total is fair, it's that you got 24 successes in a row (c 1 in 500) followed by 6 failures in a row (c 1/7000) so the chance of this happening (all the successes together and all the failures together) is less than one in a million.

Yeah, I was thinking as I typed it "that is not sound mathematics..." But whatever.
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Codewalker

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4977 on: February 12, 2015, 04:51:59 AM »
The overall total is fair, it's that you got 24 successes in a row (c 1 in 500) followed by 6 failures in a row (c 1/7000) so the chance of this happening (all the successes together and all the failures together) is less than one in a million.

The probability of that happening is the exact same as the probability of any other random sequence of hits and misses that average 80% and is well within the norm.

Long streaks that fall far outside the standard deviation are an aberration (and the odds of such an aberration occurring can be calculated), but that doesn't apply to your example.

What you're saying is the equivalent of saying that picking 1-2-3-4-5-6 as your lottery numbers is foolish because it has less of a chance of coming up due to being 'special'. In truth, that sequence has the same (infinitesimal) odds as any other combination of numbers, and is no less likely simply because the human brain sees a pattern in it.

As Arcana was saying earlier, the odds of a random number generator producing something that humans recognize as a pattern are surprisingly high due to how good we are at pattern recognition. Compare the example you gave to instead getting 6 failures in a row followed by 24 successes, or 12-6-12, or a failure every 6th time exactly (and there are at least 5 distinct sequences that do that with different phasing), and so on.

Remaugen

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4978 on: February 12, 2015, 05:07:47 AM »
What Wyatt knew...and another factor in the equation, is that guns back then were not very accurate.


They (Firearms in general) were nearly as accurate then as they are today, it is the shooting technique that has changed and improved the shooters accuracy more than anything else. Although the "Blaze Away" mentality still exists today, the higher capacity handguns improve the odds somewhat, throw enough lead downrange and eventually you are bound to hit something.

"Speed is fine, but accuracy is final". . . (Old gunfighters quote.)
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Kriiden

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Re: And the mask comes off.
« Reply #4979 on: February 12, 2015, 05:56:29 AM »
Yes, he had to out himself. They were going to generic his Harry Dresden and he had to come out and say -  uh, I own Harry and I can play him if I want to!

I also had heard rumors. Nothing concrete. It's awesome he created a story arc.  I hope someone can bring it back along with CoH. I'd like to play it. He is by far my all time favorite author.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2015, 08:41:35 AM by Kriiden »