NCSoft Stockwatch

[dwturducken]

Obviously, you're not familiar with the "depths" of variety available in said reference material. (No, I'm not linking!)

[Atlantea]

Obviously, you're not familiar with the "depths" of variety available in said reference material. (No, I'm not linking!)

"Clearly you've never been to Singapore."

[dwturducken]

Summer, '97. I won't say, here, where our "lady friends" drew the line.  8)

[Lily Barclay]

So I see the stock took a dive again today.  Think there's a reason for it, or is it just going back down to where it should be?  ;)

[WildFire15]

It seems to be steady-ish around about that 145k to 158k area at the moment. Must be some sort of discussion going on behind closed doors

[houtex]

People who can buy it can likely also read the latest... misdirection, let's call it... that NCSoft tried to pull... and so down they go...

/At least, that's what I would feverently hope.  I'm probably wrong.

[Quinch]

Well, it depends on whether they're willing to take Davis' statement at face value. If they check the comments and/or facts themselves, it would more likely backfire.

Personally, I'm really hoping Joe picks up the story as well.

[FatherXmas]

Well nothing obvious as to why the sudden sell off.  Nothing off of the Korean news feeds.  Nothing about NCsoft or the gaming industry in general.  Scuttlebutt that 4Q isn't as good as some analysts suggested?  We're about 4 weeks away from the official 4Q/2012 annual numbers.

[Quinch]

I certainly wouldn't mind another cliff jump the kind of that last quarter report preceded, but I don't want to jinx it either.

[Victoria Victrix]

Scuttlebutt that 4Q isn't as good as some analysts suggested? 

From your mouth to the deity of your choice's ear.

Or it might be because, despite sinking stock numbers, disappointment with GW2's retention rate (it's not good, if what I am hearing is true), panic downsizing of NCSoft's staffing, they are still building a bigger HQ in Seoul. 

None of these things would make me want to buy their stock.

[ukaserex]

The thing about stock analysts is that we can never be sure that they aren't biased for or against. Perhaps they are fans of NCSoft's baseball team? And, even if they are credible, certainly most people that invest in the market buy a stock and just leave it. Investing is typically a long term deal.

However, given the cheaper prices for trades, the long term may not be as viable as it once was. I tend to view stock analysts like I do reporters. Sure, they report facts, but they all place their own spin on them.

[FatherXmas]

From your mouth to the deity of your choice's ear.

Or it might be because, despite sinking stock numbers, disappointment with GW2's retention rate (it's not good, if what I am hearing is true), panic downsizing of NCSoft's staffing, they are still building a bigger HQ in Seoul. 

None of these things would make me want to buy their stock.

They started to ball rolling on the new HQ in 2010.  New exclusive high tech oriented industrial park emphasis on park, lots of green space, lots of big name neighbors.

I've not seen any news on GW2 retention rate problems, other than their periodic bans.  Latest was another exploit that let you on average double a very rare and high price crafting ingredient.

[Victoria Victrix]

They started to ball rolling on the new HQ in 2010.  New exclusive high tech oriented industrial park emphasis on park, lots of green space, lots of big name neighbors.

I've not seen any news on GW2 retention rate problems, other than their periodic bans.  Latest was another exploit that let you on average double a very rare and high price crafting ingredient.

My information on GW2's retention rate is all anecdotal, but friends of mine who USED to play stopped playing because everyone burned through the content in about 2 months, leaving only end-game mass PvP battles, mass events, and other things that most of us would call "grindy."  And while many of them would keep playing, all of their friends left because they had burned through the content in 2-3 months, and there was nothing new to explore.

I will grant you, that is a common problem with a new game.  However, boxes no longer seem to be flying out the door, and since it's F2P and there are lots of other anecdotal problems (handicapped being banned for using kb helps, getting reinstated, only to be banned again, lather rinse repeat; mass banning because of using an exploit that cropped up due to bad coding, poor customer service) not retaining your base could prove very problematic.  Another friend, Owen K.C. Stevens (yes THAT Owen Stevens) told me the other day that friends of his who work at ArenaNet told him the bans are due to a zero tolerance edict handed down by NCSoft that permits no exclusions.  Yes, I know that is 3rd hand, but I think the sources are reliable.  Read into that what you will.

[Little Green Frog]

The thing about stock analysts is that we can never be sure that they aren't biased for or against. Perhaps they are fans of NCSoft's baseball team?

Yes, there appears to be much truth to what you said. I've heard someone say condescendingly that if you as an economist are too incompetent to hold a job in a financial institution or academia, you go working as an analyst. Publicly available analysis is often based on outdated or inaccurate data. And analysts seldom have in-depth perspective of what is really going on with companies that are under their scrutiny.

And, even if they are credible, certainly most people that invest in the market buy a stock and just leave it. Investing is typically a long term deal.

For individuals yes, this is often true. But individuals do not shape the market. Big players like banks, funds or speculators do. They may opt for short them stock acquisition, then sell it quickly just as the price goes up a few points. And by short term I mean really short. Situations when someone buys, then sells large quantities of stock in a matter of minutes are pretty normal.

It's a wonderfully complicated and chaotic system.

[NecrotechMaster]

VV, to me its still continuing to sound like ncsoft is the main problem, and their poor business sense may end up killing arenanet as well

[Quinch]

In happier news, looks like the stock dipped below 150K again. They're just a little bit short of their three-year worst.

[JaguarX]

In happier news, looks like the stock dipped below 150K again. They're just a little bit short of their three-year worst.

watching very closely waiting for the time to strike.

[Tubbius]

Up and down and up and down go the stock reports?

[DarkCurrent]

watching very closely waiting for the time to strike.

Ooh... someone has a nefarious plan in the works.

[eabrace]

Up and down and up and down go the stock reports?

Stock is sitting at 141.5k at the moment, but apparently dropped as low as 139.0 earlier (52-week low.)