Problems for NCSoft

[Culach]

Was browsing the web and ran across this gem today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/markets-korea-stocks-idUSL4N0AE2UK20130109

The Pertinent Part:

"Online game developer NCsoft slid 4.5 percent to 147,500 won, after Morgan Stanley slashed its price target for the stock to 130,000 won from 375,000 won.

"We advise cutting losses on NCsoft - we see continued cannibalization of existing games and at best moderate success for new games in China," Morgan Stanley analyst Sam Min wrote in a research note on Wednesday."

Poor NCSoft...seems since they decided to cut out CoX they have been in a downward spiral...

[Arachnion]

Serves them right in my opinion.

:P

[Culach]

no argument here

[Starsman]

And canibalization will continue as long as they keep doing ONLY fantasy themed games.

[Little Green Frog]

And canibalization will continue as long as they keep doing ONLY fantasy themed games.

Well, they have Wildstar Online in the making, which appears to be space-opera flavored.

[Starsman]

Well, they have Wildstar Online in the making, which appears to be space-opera flavored.

They also had Secret Project and it was canceled. Until it sees beta, I am skeptic about their commitment to Wildstar (not to mention allgameplay footage made it look like a WoW-like game, something that didnt work for Tabula Rasa.)

[Little Green Frog]

They also had Secret Project and it was canceled. Until it sees beta, I am skeptic about their commitment to Wildstar (not to mention allgameplay footage made it look like a WoW-like game, something that didnt work for Tabula Rasa.)

It's no surprise it appears as a WoW-like game, since Carbine Studios is founded by former Blizzard employees. Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what will come out of it.

[Starsman]

Anyway, we'll have to wait and see if it will come out.

Modified that last line a bit.  ;D

[Little Green Frog]

D'oh!  :P

[The Fifth Horseman]

Anyone want fries to go with this serving of delicious schadenfreude?  ;)

[Heroette]

I know this is off subject but I just watched the trailer to Wildstar Online and it looks like it will be lots of fun.  It's not taking itself too seriously.

[FatherXmas]

Anyone want fries to go with this serving of delicious schadenfreude?  ;)

Well that explains today's dip.

It's still 24 of 39 analysts listed at Reuters have the stock as outperform, 13 buy, 1 sell and now 1 underperform.  Is MS just being contrarian or did they hear something?  The China income from B&S isn't suppose to arrive until 3Q and that quarterly report is all the way till next November.  And depending when if there is a big kick in income, it may not show up fully in a report until a year from now.

Now the question is what will the other analysts do?  They tend to have a flock mentality.  Is MS just some crazy foreign analyst that don't get online gaming or are they just the first ones to take a step back and reevaluate the signs?

[TonyV]

I know this is off subject but I just watched the trailer to Wildstar Online and it looks like it will be lots of fun.  It's not taking itself too seriously.

I may eat these words, but I am extremely skeptical that Wildstar will ever actually launch.  And it won't be because of Carbine's lack of will or ability to do so.  I'm not being mean here, because I sincerely hope for the sake of the people who are employed by Carbine that I'm wrong, but I expect any time to read that that studio has been axed and Wildstar canceled.  It has crossed my mind more than once that if we're successful in freeing the City of Heroes IP, we could be doing them a favor by allowing them to acquire the Wildstar IP before NCsoft puts it on the chopping block never to see the light of day.

In other news, it looks like more investment analysts are catching on to what we already knew.

[Atlantea]

I posted the following on NCSoft's facebook page:

(A link to the news site in question, and then the following:)

"We advise cutting losses on NCsoft - we see continued cannibalization of existing games and at best moderate success for new games in China," Morgan Stanley analyst Sam Min wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

So - about that new direction you were so hot for that you killed the best Superhero MMO of all time?

How's that working out for ya?

(And BTW - is it just me, or does anyone else get horrendous, damn near lock your machine up lag when you visit their facebook page? It's REALLY bad!)

[FatherXmas]

I may eat these words, but I am extremely skeptical that Wildstar will ever actually launch.  And it won't be because of Carbine's lack of will or ability to do so.  I'm not being mean here, because I sincerely hope for the sake of the people who are employed by Carbine that I'm wrong, but I expect any time to read that that studio has been axed and Wildstar canceled.  It has crossed my mind more than once that if we're successful in freeing the City of Heroes IP, we could be doing them a favor by allowing them to acquire the Wildstar IP before NCsoft puts it on the chopping block never to see the light of day.

In other news, it looks like more investment analysts are catching on to what we already knew.

Problem now is the hype machine already has kicking in and Wildstar has appeared on a number of "Most Anticipated MMO for 2013" lists in the west.  NCSoft has spent too much money not to try to get some of that back.  If the "anime" look of the characters allows it to be even a moderate hit in Asia, all the better.  You don't fund a studio for five years, show off your work in progress at all the major US game cons just to get gun shy at the very end.

[Ampithere]

Problem now is the hype machine already has kicking in and Wildstar has appeared on a number of "Most Anticipated MMO for 2013" lists in the west.  NCSoft has spent too much money not to try to get some of that back.  If the "anime" look of the characters allows it to be even a moderate hit in Asia, all the better.  You don't fund a studio for five years, show off your work in progress at all the major US game cons just to get gun shy at the very end.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that almost exactly what they did with Tabula Rasa? I briefly played that game only to be disappointed when it was closed down.

[beveri8469]

always wanted to try TR just never got a chance to because was playing coh all the time.

[Arachnion]

Speaking of NC Soft games.... I'm probably one of the few who played/stuck with Auto Assault for a bit, though I wasn't a pro.

I was there, right up to the shutdown of that game.

By then, it was a complete ghost town though....

:-\

[Little Green Frog]

always wanted to try TR just never got a chance to because was playing coh all the time.

It got released and that makes all the difference in the world. Post release you have access to data such as subscription rates or player retention. From that you can extrapolate how successful the game will be in foreseeable future.

Before launch it is always a great mystery what happens and no amount of analytics and experience can help you predict with certainty whether your title will be successful or not.

[FatherXmas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that almost exactly what they did with Tabula Rasa? I briefly played that game only to be disappointed when it was closed down.

Yes but TR was released.  Released too soon but released.  Tony is suggesting that Wildstar will die on the vine.