Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 714366 times)

Victoria Victrix

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #680 on: December 08, 2012, 12:47:31 AM »
Some people are buying, assuming that NCSoft has completely bottomed out and they are getting a bargain that will rise.

This might ALSO reflect Nexon buying NCSoft stock in an effort to get, not just a controlling, but a majority share.  They won't do it too fast though, because they won't want to make the price rise.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #681 on: December 08, 2012, 05:18:59 AM »
Some people are buying, assuming that NCSoft has completely bottomed out and they are getting a bargain that will rise.

This might ALSO reflect Nexon buying NCSoft stock in an effort to get, not just a controlling, but a majority share.  They won't do it too fast though, because they won't want to make the price rise.

this seems the most logical to me, and if it is the case, its looking more and more like ncsoft might get taken over by nexon in the next year

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #682 on: December 08, 2012, 05:36:43 AM »
this seems the most logical to me, and if it is the case, its looking more and more like ncsoft might get taken over by nexon in the next year
If so, then VV was probably right - NCSoft might not be our real foe here.  If they're just Nexon's puppet now, then it was probably Nexon that ordered the hit on CoH, even if NCSoft pulled the trigger.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #683 on: December 08, 2012, 05:43:59 AM »
That's something that a lot of people felt from the start, actually. And if true, our goal needs to be getting the IP from NCSoft before Nexon takes them.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #684 on: December 08, 2012, 06:30:14 AM »
Nexon doesn't have controlling ownership, they don't have majority ownership, they simply got 15% ownership.  They haven't put anyone onto the board of directors.  The only thing they can do with that much stock is to crash the price by dumping it onto the market all at once.  That's a great threat except they've already lost 40% of their money during it's crash.  How much more money are they willing to lose?

Again, every stock transaction has a buyer.  People are buying the stock because they either think the sell off is an overreaction or the stock is now at a price that's more reasonable in relation to the company's fundamentals, as in sales and profits.  Since the stock went up today people either thought the hit it took a couple a days ago was too much or it could simply be a case of "rising tide raises all boats".  Don't normally follow the Korean exchange too closely.

Here in the states, we have a slew of investment types who have declared the PC as dead, being replaced by smartphones and tablets.  Because of that hardware and software companies that specialize in PCs are also being poo-pooed.  Now I imagine this isn't a US trend, the PC is dead, but a world wide one and in Korea a online game company that's primary sources of income are from PC games are also on investor's naughty lists along with PC Bangs (PC gaming cafes) and hard drive companies.

Looking at Nexon's 3rd quarter numbers show that their Korean sales are down 20% year to year and 22% in North America.  For Nexon their biggest market is China and it's growing quickly.

Now if Nexon or NCSoft can come out with a popular MMO that's scalable on smartphones to tablets, I would imagine their stocks will shoot up again.
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Victoria Victrix

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #685 on: December 08, 2012, 10:08:28 AM »
We know Nexon bought 15% of NCSoft stock from Taek Jin Kim himself.

What we do not know is how much more they have bought through proxies since that time.

We also do not know what Taek Jin Kim's first wife--the one he had to give half of his (original 60%) stock share to in the divorce--has done with HER 30%.  No one seems to have tracked that.

As for PCs being dead, I say again, if you want to track how many PCs are operating, you don't track the number of new PC sales, you track the number of sales of high end video cards.  People are no longer buying new PCs every year or so, they are upgrading instead.  The PC is far from dead.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #686 on: December 08, 2012, 10:12:18 AM »
Nexon doesn't have controlling ownership, they don't have majority ownership, they simply got 15% ownership.  They haven't put anyone onto the board of directors.  The only thing they can do with that much stock is to crash the price by dumping it onto the market all at once.  That's a great threat except they've already lost 40% of their money during it's crash.  How much more money are they willing to lose?

Again, every stock transaction has a buyer.  People are buying the stock because they either think the sell off is an overreaction or the stock is now at a price that's more reasonable in relation to the company's fundamentals, as in sales and profits.  Since the stock went up today people either thought the hit it took a couple a days ago was too much or it could simply be a case of "rising tide raises all boats".  Don't normally follow the Korean exchange too closely.

Here in the states, we have a slew of investment types who have declared the PC as dead, being replaced by smartphones and tablets.  Because of that hardware and software companies that specialize in PCs are also being poo-pooed.  Now I imagine this isn't a US trend, the PC is dead, but a world wide one and in Korea a online game company that's primary sources of income are from PC games are also on investor's naughty lists along with PC Bangs (PC gaming cafes) and hard drive companies.

Looking at Nexon's 3rd quarter numbers show that their Korean sales are down 20% year to year and 22% in North America.  For Nexon their biggest market is China and it's growing quickly.

Now if Nexon or NCSoft can come out with a popular MMO that's scalable on smartphones to tablets, I would imagine their stocks will shoot up again.

In that case we should figure out if there is anything else we can reasonably do to get NCSoft to sell the IP.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #687 on: December 08, 2012, 04:33:04 PM »
As for PCs being dead, I say again, if you want to track how many PCs are operating, you don't track the number of new PC sales, you track the number of sales of high end video cards.  People are no longer buying new PCs every year or so, they are upgrading instead.  The PC is far from dead.

IMO tablets and mobile gaming are much more likely to steal market share from console games, not PC games.

PC gamers still play on PCs and not consoles for a reason. Mobile devices won't change that.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #688 on: December 08, 2012, 05:48:02 PM »
PC gamers still play on PCs and not consoles for a reason. Mobile devices won't change that.



Every couple of years, someone trots themselves out to go stand on some digital street-corner and loudly announces that the Death of PC gaming is nigh via some long-winded article. They always manage to get a few converts to sip that particular Kool-Aid and chime in, but most of us just look at them askance and say "Uh, yeah, whatever" and call it a day. They've been wrong every time in the past, and they will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future.
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TimtheEnchanter

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #689 on: December 08, 2012, 05:54:24 PM »
Every couple of years, someone trots themselves out to go stand on some digital street-corner and loudly announces that the Death of PC gaming is nigh via some long-winded article. They always manage to get a few converts to sip that particular Kool-Aid and chime in, but most of us just look at them askance and say "Uh, yeah, whatever" and call it a day. They've been wrong every time in the past, and they will continue to be wrong for the foreseeable future.

What I can never grasp is, why is there such an obsession with it in the first place? Nobody would keep saying things like this if they weren't hoping for it to be true.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #690 on: December 08, 2012, 06:00:53 PM »
Rivalry? There's a lot of conflict between proponents of various platforms so if one of them died out or faded into insignificance, it would make their claims that their own preferred platform is "best" slightly more credible.

TimtheEnchanter

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #691 on: December 08, 2012, 06:17:51 PM »
Rivalry? There's a lot of conflict between proponents of various platforms so if one of them died out or faded into insignificance, it would make their claims that their own preferred platform is "best" slightly more credible.

There's nothing stopping one of them from competing in the PC market though. Compatibility between platforms is easier now than it has been at any other time in gaming history.

Or is PC just not seen as being worth the trouble because a PC can't follow you around during your day and spam you with ads?

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #692 on: December 08, 2012, 06:39:05 PM »
Quote
People are no longer buying new PCs every year or so, they are upgrading instead.
Unless they skimped so long on upgrading critical parts that the machine can't really be upgraded.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #693 on: December 08, 2012, 06:47:48 PM »
Unless they skimped so long on upgrading critical parts that the machine can't really be upgraded.

True, but even so, if they have a habit of upgrading their PCs, odds are they're going to assemble one from individual parts too.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #694 on: December 08, 2012, 06:50:19 PM »
Or is PC just not seen as being worth the trouble because a PC can't follow you around during your day and spam you with ads?

That's pretty much the problem: God forbid we not be spammed with ads every minute of every day.

I have no desire to join the legions who spend 80% of every 24 hours with their noses glued to a smartphone screen, and then when they finally go to bed the phone is tucked under their pillows so that if someone texts them they'll know immedjutly!!!... so I guess I am just old and cranky.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #695 on: December 08, 2012, 07:01:59 PM »
What I can never grasp is, why is there such an obsession with it in the first place? Nobody would keep saying things like this if they weren't hoping for it to be true.

I think part of it is the desire to be right about something of importance that's forthcoming. There's this personality type that wants to be a doomsayer and be right about it. They are probably the types that like to say "I told you so."

Granted, that's not true in every case.

We often see similar declarations as well, like the death of the PC in general (to be brought about by tablets, smart-phones, cloud computing, etc), the desktop PC (the previous list, plus laptops as as a cause), and printed media (caused by computers, and now e-readers and other types of digital media).

It does get tiresome after a while.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #696 on: December 08, 2012, 07:07:18 PM »
I don't know of anyone who buys a PC every year.  Smartphones I can believe but I'm not one of those nut jobs either.  Tablets are still rapidly evolving and even though the iPad 4 has an impressive bit of hardware performance wise I'm not a fan of a closed ecosystem.

And the "PC's are Dead" mantra is talking about the consumer/home PC market.  Yes I've had computers since my Atari 800 in college with it's 300 baud modem, I'm the exception but most people only use their PCs for accessing the Internet (and a tablet it good enough for that) and for school children doing their written reports.   Most people game on a console not a PC.  So I can grok where stock analysts are coming from when they keep declaring that "PCs are dead".  They missed out on Dell and Compaq and Gateway in the 80s and 90s so they are just looking for the next big thing in the consumer marketplace.
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corvus1970

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #697 on: December 08, 2012, 07:10:50 PM »
Most people game on a console not a PC. 

Which has been the case for a good many years now. And yet there's still a market for PC gaming. Its not nearly as big as it used to be, but it survives.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #698 on: December 08, 2012, 07:22:52 PM »
What I can never grasp is, why is there such an obsession with it in the first place? Nobody would keep saying things like this if they weren't hoping for it to be true.

I think part of the obsession is one we know either first- or second-hand: the allure of the New Shiney.  Another piece is self-interest.  Fame, fortune, even religious cults may form around the person able to accurately predict that which has a direct bearing on the welfare of the group.  I'd guess this second piece is only slightly diminished in present times from what it was in antiquity, if at all.  Besides, look at how fun and useful small, portable computers are (whether called smartphones, androids, etc.)

You may have heard, as I once did, that initially no one could think of a use for a personal computer.  Why would one want one?  Until one engineer said he thought his mother would use one to store her recipes on.

There's nothing stopping one of them from competing in the PC market though. Compatibility between platforms is easier now than it has been at any other time in gaming history.

Or is PC just not seen as being worth the trouble because a PC can't follow you around during your day and spam you with ads?

I'll always be a fan of full sized keyboards and detest texting, but I'm an admitted old guy.  Do you have an ad-blocker installed on your PC, Tim?  Yeah, i thought so.  Me too.  BTW, I'm not trying to take away from what you're saying.  Humans do a lot of things that strictly speaking aren't rational but make sense anyway, such as falling in love.  (I'll leave it to others to find better examples.)
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #699 on: December 08, 2012, 07:40:30 PM »
Which has been the case for a good many years now. And yet there's still a market for PC gaming. Its not nearly as big as it used to be, but it survives.
Yes but from a PoV of a stock market analyst, they are looking for companies that cater to huge markets or supply materials to companies that cater to huge markets.  And right now they aren't seeing PCs as being a product that sells into a huge market (consumer/home) anymore.
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