Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 714670 times)

chasearcanum

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #580 on: December 05, 2012, 09:21:02 PM »
Ok, I'm not really a stock-person, so maybe some people can enlighten me:

Some people here have pointed to the big stack of money NCSoft is sitting on to suggest that their market capitalization decline doesn't matter much.  To me, that would indicate a even bigger problem.

Gross simplification here, but it seems like Market capitalization is the perceived 'worth' of a company.  That includes the value of all currently held assets plus the value of potential future earnings.  If you're sitting on a pile of assets and you're declining in value, then people are losing confidence in your ability to bring in future earnings.

To me, the "hitting rock bottom" isn't a stock value hitting "0" in this case, but somewhere around  ~53,000w.  Around that point, the market valuation would be close to parity with the assets I've heard it said that they're sitting on.  If it dipped below that, it'd be more profitable to cut up the company and sell off its assets.  You know its worth at least that much, after all.

So, if you went from a 52-week high of 328,500 and now sit at 141,000, then you've lost close to 2/3 of the value that's attributed to future potential...

Am I missing something here?

(rough numbers on the back of a napkin and never invested anything here, so please help if I'm missing something here..



mikoroshi

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #581 on: December 05, 2012, 09:43:08 PM »
I believe someone pointed out that the numbers you're seeing don't mean much until you multiply them by the number of stocks that exist in NCSoft.  Overall, since around the time they announced the shuttering of Paragon and CoH, investors lost a total of ~$232,000,000  (I am terrible at math, someone please correct me).

If this happened to an American company, people would be buying new underwear.
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chasearcanum

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #582 on: December 05, 2012, 09:54:32 PM »
I believe someone pointed out that the numbers you're seeing don't mean much until you multiply them by the number of stocks that exist in NCSoft.  Overall, since around the time they announced the shuttering of Paragon and CoH, investors lost a total of ~$232,000,000  (I am terrible at math, someone please correct me).

If this happened to an American company, people would be buying new underwear.

I know- tried to account for that.

my estimate of 53,000 won for the "bottom" share value  was taken by taking the won value of the assets they're sitting on that people were reporting and dividing by the total number of available shares out there.   Essentially a "if we shut down, cashed out everything and just paid the shareholders, what would each share be worth?"


dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #583 on: December 05, 2012, 09:59:28 PM »
While I can understand the Machiavellian appeal of buying up NCSoftcore stock at a low point, I cannot in good conscience contribute to this. Whatever the motivation, whatever the intended outcome, we would be investing in NCSoftcore, however temporarily. In fact, my future purchase of anything with their name attached to it is fully dependent on, not their sale of the CoH IP and related pieces, but how they handle it. I can't really even tell you specifically what I would have to see from them that would assuage the bad feelings they have created in their handling of the situation, so far.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

NecrotechMaster

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #584 on: December 05, 2012, 10:03:56 PM »
While I can understand the Machiavellian appeal of buying up NCSoftcore stock at a low point, I cannot in good conscience contribute to this. Whatever the motivation, whatever the intended outcome, we would be investing in NCSoftcore, however temporarily. In fact, my future purchase of anything with their name attached to it is fully dependent on, not their sale of the CoH IP and related pieces, but how they handle it. I can't really even tell you specifically what I would have to see from them that would assuage the bad feelings they have created in their handling of the situation, so far.

agreed with this

the amount needed to buy up a large enough amount of stock in ncsoft to force them to sell the IP would be too much for crowdsourcing

what we need is for them to actually sell the IP and then we can crowdsource to help buy it out of ncsofts hands then we will wash our hands of ncsoft for good

Codewalker

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #585 on: December 05, 2012, 10:21:23 PM »
While I can understand the Machiavellian appeal of buying up NCSoftcore stock at a low point, I cannot in good conscience contribute to this. Whatever the motivation, whatever the intended outcome, we would be investing in NCSoftcore, however temporarily. In fact, my future purchase of anything with their name attached to it is fully dependent on, not their sale of the CoH IP and related pieces, but how they handle it. I can't really even tell you specifically what I would have to see from them that would assuage the bad feelings they have created in their handling of the situation, so far.

Which assets are you looking at, just fixed, or are you counting cash equivalents and the like?

The reason I ask is that their last yearly report indicated that a substantial chunk of their short term assets was their own stock. I know they've sold some it it since then in order to fund some acquisitions, so it's less than it was, but still might account for part if it -- the value of which would now be lower of course.

dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #586 on: December 05, 2012, 10:31:54 PM »
Which assets are you looking at, just fixed, or are you counting cash equivalents and the like?

The reason I ask is that their last yearly report indicated that a substantial chunk of their short term assets was their own stock. I know they've sold some it it since then in order to fund some acquisitions, so it's less than it was, but still might account for part if it -- the value of which would now be lower of course.

I'm not sure what you mean, here, but my knowledge of any of that stuff is pretty limited. I was just addressing the idea (that seems to pop up on about ever other page of this thread) that we, either as a crowdfund or as individuals, buy up a bunch of their stock.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Kosmos

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #587 on: December 05, 2012, 10:42:38 PM »
I believe someone pointed out that the numbers you're seeing don't mean much until you multiply them by the number of stocks that exist in NCSoft.  Overall, since around the time they announced the shuttering of Paragon and CoH, investors lost a total of ~$232,000,000  (I am terrible at math, someone please correct me).

I see NCsoftcore stock cratered again today, down more than 7% due to an all out free-fall in morning trading. So just this morning alone NCsoftcore investors lost an aggregate $220M. And the market cap of the company has now dropped under $3B. Let's just do this quickly with estimates (I'm not looking up the exact ecxhange rates, stock prices and market shares, but just going off easily acquired summary data)...

Mkt Cap on Sept 1 ~= 21.9 million shares outstanding * 0.28M Won/share * $881/million Won = $5.4B
Mkt Cap on Dec 5 ~= 21.9 million shares outstanding * 0.147M Won/share * $924/million Won = $3.0B

So, the investors have been losing an average of about $25M/day since Sept 1. Good thing for Mr. Kim that he sold most of his stake to Nexon for $685M. I wonder how much of that was in Nexon stock though. They haven't been doing well either; having dropped about 45% since early August (most of that drop was in mid Aug).
« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 02:42:40 AM by Kosmos »

Colette

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #588 on: December 06, 2012, 12:14:53 AM »
"...would any of those memes or images even exist, had NCsoft not given them reason to?"

Just so, Kaiser. I believe we are taking the right actions, but let us also follow the good example of Nafaustu and Perfidus, and be mindful of the consequences of those actions.

Is that "red shirt" guy who doesn't believe in periods for real? I'm kinda smellin' horned horse.

Opilion

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #589 on: December 06, 2012, 12:35:13 AM »
A bit of a rally thus far.  I suspect shares will climb back up to around the 151,000 won mark today (+/- 1000).......  still below their previous 52 week low.

NOTE:  I am not an analyst.  Don't go out and buy shares based on my prediction.  :P

« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 12:46:55 AM by Opilion »

DrakeGrimm

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #590 on: December 06, 2012, 01:55:28 AM »
The nose diving has begun! As of this posting, down -2500 won and still free falling.

That loud whistling "ERRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWW" sound you hear is their stock prices--and investor faith--plummeting to terra firma.
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JWBullfrog

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #591 on: December 06, 2012, 01:56:20 AM »
I am reminded of a certain famous coyote...
As long as somebody keeps making up stories for it, the City isn't gone.

Vasarto

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #592 on: December 06, 2012, 04:14:09 AM »
seems like it fell below another $100,000 from yesterday. I am not sure if I read the review right but could this daily decline be a indication of what is happening to them through coincidence or through all of us?

Perfidus

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #593 on: December 06, 2012, 04:17:07 AM »
I don't want to say we're solely responsible but I bet we're at least partly so.

General Idiot

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #594 on: December 06, 2012, 06:13:29 AM »
One more straw on the back of that camel, at least. I highly doubt we're the one that broke it, but we're still there.

Kaiser Tarantula

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #595 on: December 06, 2012, 07:07:38 AM »
I am reminded of a certain famous coyote...
Coincidentally, I am too.

emu265

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #596 on: December 06, 2012, 07:15:13 AM »
I don't want to say we're solely responsible but I bet we're at least partly so.
It'd be egotistical to assume full responsibility.  But it'd be ignorant to assume we've got nothing to do with it ;)

Perfidus

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #597 on: December 06, 2012, 07:23:00 AM »
Hence my tempered response! I like to think I'm a balanced individual. I hope.

emu265

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #598 on: December 06, 2012, 07:29:54 AM »
Hence my tempered response! I like to think I'm a balanced individual. I hope.
Of course. I just had to say something because I'm procrastinating.  And apparently stalking you today.

Perfidus

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #599 on: December 06, 2012, 07:32:14 AM »
There are worse fates than being stalked by an emu. I'm flattered, even though I know it's happenstance. <3