NCSoft Stockwatch

[Luna Eclypse]

Their free-falling stocks make me giddy with delight. We cannot afford to let up on the pressure.

[eabrace]

Whether or not we're in any way responsible for contributing to the continued decline of NCsoft stock, we can at least be certain that we're not helping to slow it down.

[Ironwolf]

Here is the thing - we keep holding the carrot out all the time we are beating the snot out of them.

We can make this stop - sell the game - it is that easy.

[Xieveral]

This was just posted up on the Save CoH facebook group. An estimate of where NCSoft's stocks might be had they not closed the game. The poster does say the graph may be off since the figures don't start from zero.

https://images.weserv.nl/?url=www.lukasmattsson.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F10%2FNcSoft-stocks.png

[Segev]

On what do they base their estimates? How do they determine what fall is due to CoH's cancellation?

[TimtheEnchanter]

This was just posted up on the Save CoH facebook group. An estimate of where NCSoft's stocks might be had they not closed the game. The poster does say the graph may be off since the figures don't start from zero.

https://images.weserv.nl/?url=www.lukasmattsson.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F10%2FNcSoft-stocks.png

Who did this? Is it based on any professional trader speculation, or is it 'just for fun?'

[zybron]

Looks like they simply copied the graph from prior to the cancellation and tacked it onto the point where the announcement was made.

[Xieveral]

I believe they put the graph together for "fun" to show what NCSoft may have lost with the closure . The figures are based on the pattern prior to closing (a copy/paste like Zybron said)

[TimtheEnchanter]

Anyone think it might be possible to get an 'official' speculation on this? Or is NC too remote for any Wallstreet news firm to give a darn?

And also, on the topic of whether or not we actually caused this... it's really not that hard to imagine. These trends tend to work like avalanches, and it all it takes is a little gust of wind to start an avalanche.

Similar to how gas prices were during the gulf war. All it took to alter gas prices, was for an Iraqi to fart in the general direction of a soldier from a U.N. nation.

In this case, assuming it was us, here's what I'd say happened. There's all different kinds of investors. Some are fiercely loyal and will give stocks a long-term chance. Others trade by the nano-second... constantly. Some of the latter are as timid as deer, and will flee into the forest the moment they hear a twig snap. No doubt the rally scared those guys off pretty quick. But they're also not the major investors so not much harm done. In the grand scheme of things, the damage probably isn't so bad thus far. But, I think the minor panic might've been enough to incite a slightly larger one. Other investors saw the lowbies panicking, (through the stock value) and on top of that saw the bad press. And there you have your snowballing effect (maybe).

[ohms]

The graph has no bearing on reality. For example, the mid-September drop was most likely due to the loss of personal data of 5 million Japanese customers which the graph completely ignores.

[Atlantea]

The graph has no bearing on reality. For example, the mid-September drop was most likely due to the loss of personal data of 5 million Japanese customers which the graph completely ignores.

Whoa... 5 Million??? I hadn't heard about this! Where's this info come from?

[ohms]

Whoa... 5 Million??? I hadn't heard about this! Where's this info come from?

MY apologies, I misread the article. It doesn't say how many users had information leaked, only that NCSoft Japan has 5 million registered users. It wasn't widely reported so I have no idea how true it is.

http://www.mmoculture.com/2012/09/ncsoft-internal-error-led-to-latest-account-information-leak/
http://www.gameblogs.co.uk/posts/2012/09/ncsoft-internal-error-led-to-latest-account-information-leak/

[Rotten Luck]

Internal Error huh.... Yup no connection to any Internal choice to turn off CoH.

Think someone might have Hacked the system?

[Atlantea]

I don't know... I don't see any correlation (real or inferred) between the brief exposure of the customer data in Japan and the downward slide of their stock. Nothing seems to have happened to either bump their stock higher or send it going lower at a faster pace on Sept. 15th.

On the other hand, the graph is almost PERFECTLY in line with the date of the first Unity Rally! In fact I think it's off by only one day because of the fact that the rally happened on a weekend when the stock market wasn't open. As soon as it opened on the following Monday, it went into the SCREAMING DIVE that it's currently in and with only brief upticks, is still in!

[Colette]

Well NCSoftcore, if you're reading this... you know how to make the pain stop. Just uncancel our little game, and put it up for sale to responsible caretakers. This can all go away. You don't hafta be the pariah of the gaming world. It won't cost you a lot, and you might even be able to make yourselves look like good guys again.

And we promise we won't be yelling "in your face!" or anything. This has been a nightmare for us as well, and we want it to go away too.

[The White Rager]

Actually, if and when they do give us what we want, we should probably turn around and counter the bad press we started for a bit. No singing praises through cyberspace, just a little unraveling, some counter comments, a nice article or two on the same lines as what VV is sending out. To show NCSoft what happens when they do cooperate with us. 'We are a force for your own good OR your own destruction, and you choose which', is the lesson we ultimately want them to come away with.

[TimtheEnchanter]

Heheh, we are but a syringe. Only they can choose what to load us with. A healing potion, or a deadly poison.

[srmalloy]

This is exactly what "Maple Story", which is what Nexxon's big win, is.  It's a 2D MMORPG integrated with social networking.  Maybe we ought to be working on Nexxon.

Particularly because this article, four days before NCSoft's bomb, announces Daniel Kim's replacement by Min Kim (Nexon's SVP of live games) as the CEO of Nexon America, and presents an interesting statement from Min Kim:

Min Kim said he sees a big opportunity lying ahead in the traditional games space, where people play games for years at a time and for long stretches every month.

This would appear to describe City of Heroes to a 'T', and Nexon -- as a major shareholder of NCSoft -- should be concerned that NCSoft has thrown away a prize opportunity to spearhead City of Heroes as a shining example of creating a game that has built up exactly such a dedicated playerbase.

[Victoria Victrix]

Well can we get the address for Min Kim of Nexon America and start sending him letters?

[Turjan]

There's one of the things that puzzles me - the whole Min Kim, Nexon US thing. If you read his interview that appeared in Forbes on October 5th -

Nexon America CEO Min Kim Explains Why Free-To-Play Is The Future Of Gaming

- you can't help but think that keeping City of Heroes alive in its current form would've made the most sense from Nexon's point of view, especially if a sequel was planned using the IP (whether on pc of a different platform), just as with Guild Wars remaining open because GW2 was in development.

Given the image of MMO-centred business plans Min Kim is trying to put over in that article, I find it hard to believe that NCsoft kept Nexon out of the loop about the impending closure of City of Heroes, so once again one has to start wondering what the motivations behind the scenes were.


It's a puzzle - one for which, I'm afraid, we are missing several pieces - pieces that are in corporate hands, beyond our reach.