NCSoft Stockwatch

[UruzSix]

I'm not sure if UruzSix's graph was his own or lifted from somewhere else but it simply didn't include CoH or the original Guild Wars series, I assume because they weren't broken out in the last quarter.  They simply decided only to list the top X number of games based on sales and if you aren't one of those you get shoved into "Other".  This included games like Exteel, Dungeon Runners, Auto Assault, small games that are only available in Asia and games they decided to no longer list separately, like Tabula Rasa in it's closing quarters.

Mea culpa, I yoinked it from MMO Fallout's post on NCSoft's third quarter report. CoH and GW weren't listed independently in the report, so they didn't make the chart.

[Colette]

Down 4000 in two days. I hope FatherXmas is wrong, and this isn't profit-taking.

They haven't reversed their massive loss in Novenber, and appear to be sinking very, very slowly. Does anyone know if they have some other cool game in the pipe to buoy them?

[Aggelakis]

As for Guild Wars, I thought it would be above the 25000 line more regularly and occasionally challenging Lineage. Hell, I thought it would have been more consistent rather then jumping up and down as it did before settling only slightly above and then dropping under CoH. They have just sunk masses into it's sequel, after all, so I did think it had been more of a run away success then CoH was.

Guild Wars didn't have a subscription, so there was nothing to sustain them other than their extremely-meager cash shop and late-buyers between expansions. The bumps basically coincide with new boxes. Nothing surprising in there. Guild Wars sold more than six million copies of the game (plus an unverifiable amount of cash shop sales). Six million boxes times twenty to sixty per box (depending on the box). That is more money than City brought in over its whole life. And GW still has boxes out there and their cash shop is still present.

[WildFire15]

Guild Wars didn't have a subscription, so there was nothing to sustain them other than their extremely-meager cash shop and late-buyers between expansions. The bumps basically coincide with new boxes. Nothing surprising in there. Guild Wars sold more than six million copies of the game (plus an unverifiable amount of cash shop sales). Six million boxes times twenty to sixty per box (depending on the box). That is more money than City brought in over its whole life. And GW still has boxes out there and their cash shop is still present.

I know Guild Wars didn't have a subscription... where did all these numbers come from again?

[FatherXmas]

Ah, didn't realize they only acquired Ntreev in 2011. When I noticed it on the wikipedia article with such a similar name, I thought they'd held it for a lot longer. So yes, it makes more sense now, even if it does enforce the Korean gamer stereotype (anything with anime girls in and they're all over it)

As for Guild Wars, I thought it would be above the 25000 line more regularly and occasionally challenging Lineage. Hell, I thought it would have been more consistent rather then jumping up and down as it did before settling only slightly above and then dropping under CoH. They have just sunk masses into it's sequel, after all, so I did think it had been more of a run away success then CoH was.

I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing if Guild Wars didn't have 3 expansions in fairly quick succession (2 in 2006 and a third in 2007 and a forth in 2010), then it would have dropped under CoH and likely stayed there. Except for City of Villians release, CoH has remained surprisingly consistent. Hell, it shows how much NCsoft  is focused on the short term (something it shares with all major publishers these days) as they put a huge amount into Guild Wars 2 after it's successor boasted at least over a million accounts at one stage (that was in 2006, haven't been able to find any real numbers yet) yet never significantly outperformed CoH for long, an under advertised niche game with a subscription model and fewer players.

That's just my observations of it and they may be wrong. Time will tell if GW2 follows a similar pattern, but being a pay then free game, it's probably to be expected.

Well that is GW's income model.  Sell the game and expansions, like any standard non MMO video game and add an item shop.  They also came out with combo box sets (game + one or more expansions) once the sales of each expansion died down.  This kept at least a version of the game on store shelves for much longer than CoH did plus the non-subscription nature of it, long before the move to hybrid/F2P, eliminated a barrier that may have stopped some people from purchasing it on a whim to try it out.

Nexon claims for a F2P game to be successful, they are looking at only 10% of the players to use the cash shop at least once a month.

I know Guild Wars didn't have a subscription... where did all these numbers come from again?

NCsoft's quarterly reports.

[FatherXmas]

Down 4000 in two days. I hope FatherXmas is wrong, and this isn't profit-taking.

They haven't reversed their massive loss in Novenber, and appear to be sinking very, very slowly. Does anyone know if they have some other cool game in the pipe to buoy them?

Yes, that's why November's drop, moving the support level from around 200 to 140 is generally called a correction.  The 3Q numbers weren't as pretty as predicted/promised/"fool me once shame on you, fool me a dozen times shame on me" and those waiting for the stock to move upward after the drop in September bailed, until the price hit around 140.

So the big question is will the 4Q and annual numbers in a week be expected, significantly higher or lower?  If they break 200,000 million won in sales for the quarter I think the stock's support level will go up since it makes the analysts (who have been collectively lowering their 2013 numbers over the last few weeks) will look like they know what they are talking about (remember all but 2 of 39 are rating NCsoft as a Buy or Outperform the market).

[Kosmos]

Guild Wars didn't have a subscription, so there was nothing to sustain them other than their extremely-meager cash shop and late-buyers between expansions. The bumps basically coincide with new boxes. Nothing surprising in there. Guild Wars sold more than six million copies of the game (plus an unverifiable amount of cash shop sales). Six million boxes times twenty to sixty per box (depending on the box). That is more money than City brought in over its whole life. And GW still has boxes out there and their cash shop is still present.

$20-60 was the retail price, NCsoft only got whatever they sold the box to the reseller for (no more than about $20 even for the initial release in relatively small quantities for a no-clout retailer). I believe the lifetime revenues for CoH and GW were actually fairly similar through CoH's closure.

[FatherXmas]

$20-60 was the retail price, NCsoft only got whatever they sold the box to the reseller for (no more than about $20 even for the initial release in relatively small quantities for a no-clout retailer). I believe the lifetime revenues for CoH and GW were actually fairly similar through CoH's closure.

Yes and no.  GW still made lifetime around $15 million USD more than CoH but in a year's less time ($198 million Vs $183 million).  However a lot of that money came over a much shorter length of time.  It took GW only 3 years to reach $150 million in sales.  It took CoH almost twice as long to reach that mark (12 versus 23 quarters).

[kierthos]

Ladies and Gents, NCSoft stock is at a new 52-week low (or it was a few minutes ago). They are currently down 6000 from the previous day's trading start.

[NecrotechMaster]

Ladies and Gents, NCSoft stock is at a new 52-week low (or it was a few minutes ago). They are currently down 6000 from the previous day's trading start.

how much longer you think before they will be under 130k won? lol

[eabrace]

Ladies and Gents, NCSoft stock is at a new 52-week low (or it was a few minutes ago). They are currently down 6000 from the previous day's trading start.

[Xieveral]

how much longer you think before they will be under 130k won? lol

Considering there hasn't been much good business news for them and the upcoming Q1 report, I'd bet all my inf on a steep plunge in February. I think they might scrape the 130k mark then yo-yo between 130-145 for the next quarter (unless they pull a miracle out of their butts).

[FatherXmas]

Hmm.  I wonder if the report is leaking early?  Several of the analysts reduced their 2013 earning and sales estimates yet again.  However they are sticking with their Buy/Outperform call.

I'm betting that GW2 didn't come near some of the insane numbers that some of the analysts predicted while the "power 4" remain relatively flat.

[Tubbius]

Why does their stock graph remind me of my grades both times I had to take Calculus, in high school and in college?

(Hint: I'm an English major twice over, B.A. and M.A., and I teach English for a living.)

[mikoroshi]

Why does their stock graph remind me of my grades both times I had to take Calculus, in high school and in college?

(Hint: I'm an English major twice over, B.A. and M.A., and I teach English for a living.)

Based on this I can only assume your students get passing grades all the time.  Because, you know, inability to mark 'em down?  I tease.

[Tubbius]

They get the grades they deserve!

[mikoroshi]

This class gets the grades they deserve, not the grades they need?

[Joshex]

as I just noted in another thread, it seems NCSoft has a touch of Internetcancer. people form all walks of the internet and business are reeling from them lest they too possibly get contaminated with this form of cancer.

may it consume them well!

we can always pickthrough thier remains and slavage what we need at a government auditor's auction.

[FatherXmas]

[Colette]

I appreciate you're ensuring we don't get our hopes up prematurely, FatherXmas. It's wise. There appears to be heavy trading. Interesting.

I'm not buying my party supplies just yet. But looking at the long-range graph, they have never been able to regain their peak share price of late 2011. Unless they have some ace up their sleeve, their current trajectory leads to buyout by mid-2014.

If NCSoft goes belly-up, how much would we need to ensure we can buy CoH at the liquidation auction? We'd need to rent or buy a server too....

"It seems NCSoft has a touch of Internetcancer."

Hmm... should I get back to making meme images?