NCSoft Stockwatch

[NecrotechMaster]

Let's see, they had two million boxes of GW2 sold within a week or two of launch, didn't get their third million until the holidays...

to top that off, they were expecting 6 million copies at launch lol

just to twist the knife in their wound lol

[FatherXmas]

to top that off, they were expecting 6 million copies at launch lol

just to twist the knife in their wound lol

No they weren't.  The original game only sold 7 million copies in 7 years, counting expansions.  No sane person would expect or suggest 6 million at launch was possible.  However like many things, repetition of this misconception makes it impossible to kill off this rumor.

[TimtheEnchanter]

If we can just get control of the device that made that popcorn, our NCsoft problems will be solved. 

[Atlantea]

Let's see, they had two million boxes of GW2 sold within a week or two of launch, didn't get their third million until the holidays...

"This? This is ice. This is what happens to water when it gets too cold. This? This is Taek Kim Jin. This is what happens to people when they get too sexually frustrated."

[UruzSix]

Honestly, though, what I want to keep an eye most on is this chart:



Does Lineage and Aion rebound? Does GW2 and B&S hold steady or even trend up?

[Quinch]

Good question. So far, the drop in Lineage and Aion coincides with B&S and GW2's release - I suspect a fair chunk of their subscribers are simply cannibalization from their other games.

[NecrotechMaster]

thats something i expect we will find out when the 4Q numbers are released

i agree that it does look like ncsofts newer games just cannibalized subs from older games

it would be nice if they did list coh and gw1 for a comparison

[WildFire15]

well I can't see that slight raise in the 'Other' line between Q1 2012 and Q3 2012 having anything to do with Guild Wars and I think we all know what that line's decline is about.

I reckon GW2 and B&S will have an increase, they are new after all, while Lineage and Aion likely will continue going down, but probably not as much as they did between Q1 and Q3. Time will tell.

[Colette]

They're dropping again. Down about 9000, scraping a new low of 141.

[srmalloy]

Good question. So far, the drop in Lineage and Aion coincides with B&S and GW2's release - I suspect a fair chunk of their subscribers are simply cannibalization from their other games.

It looks to me as if Aion has been sliding since about Q4 2009, after the shiny wore off and people started seeing how abusive the grind was -- and the more precipitous drop starting Q1/Q2 2012 precedes the GW2/B&S releases, so unless it's people blowing off Aion to wait for GW2/B&S, Aion's got more problems than just the two new shinies. But there isn't enough data on either of the new games to judge by yet; I'm hoping we'll see the same kind of 'early peak and slide' that Aion showed.

[FatherXmas]

Honestly, though, what I want to keep an eye most on is this chart:



Does Lineage and Aion rebound? Does GW2 and B&S hold steady or even trend up?

Duplicated the chart with CoH, GW and TR.

[Mistress Urd]

They're dropping again. Down about 9000, scraping a new low of 141.

Always good for the stock to trend in the correct direction.

[DarkCurrent]

Odd thing with that graph is that 'other' is supposed to include CoH (?), but is lower than the numbers Xmas is showing for CoH alone.

As for GW2 and BS, I would be shocked if those two show increased sales.  Maybe slight, but based on the history of other games, the initial spike of sales is quickly followed by drops or plateaus.

BS hasn't gone beyond Korea, correct?  If not, I don't see sales going anywhere but down.  GW2 probably had a bump with that Time article, but there's been some bad press as well about it, so could be a wash.  What else is NCSoft selling that would affect their Q4 numbers positively?

[Ironwolf]

CoH IP.

[saipaman]

I doubt it's a COH IP sale.  At this point, it couldn't be worth much compared to capitalization of NCSoft.

[FatherXmas]

Odd thing with that graph is that 'other' is supposed to include CoH (?), but is lower than the numbers Xmas is showing for CoH alone.

As for GW2 and BS, I would be shocked if those two show increased sales.  Maybe slight, but based on the history of other games, the initial spike of sales is quickly followed by drops or plateaus.

BS hasn't gone beyond Korea, correct?  If not, I don't see sales going anywhere but down.  GW2 probably had a bump with that Time article, but there's been some bad press as well about it, so could be a wash.  What else is NCSoft selling that would affect their Q4 numbers positively?

I'm not sure if UruzSix's graph was his own or lifted from somewhere else but it simply didn't include CoH or the original Guild Wars series, I assume because they weren't broken out in the last quarter.  They simply decided only to list the top X number of games based on sales and if you aren't one of those you get shoved into "Other".  This included games like Exteel, Dungeon Runners, Auto Assault, small games that are only available in Asia and games they decided to no longer list separately, like Tabula Rasa in it's closing quarters.

[FatherXmas]

They're dropping again. Down about 9000, scraping a new low of 141.

Yep, it's called profit taking.  Stock went up 6% last week, let's pocket some of that money.  Now it's back up to 145.5 as I'm writing this.

[WildFire15]

Duplicated the chart with CoH, GW and TR.

Hmm, I was under the impression the first Guild Wars was more successful then that. Also, I can't see how games like Trickster Online and PangYa could contribute massively towards that pretty big bump in the 'other' line, unless I'm underestimating the power of F2P games like that

[FatherXmas]

Hmm, I was under the impression the first Guild Wars was more successful then that. Also, I can't see how games like Trickster Online and PangYa could contribute massively towards that pretty big bump in the 'other' line, unless I'm underestimating the power of F2P games like that

In what way?  It had significantly higher sales than CoH until third quarter 2008.  In some quarters nearly 3x the sales.

As for the "Other" line they did acquire Ntreev for a reason.  You tend not to buy a company that doesn't have a good cash flow.  As for those games, after checking out screen shots, I starting to see a pattern with them and B&S.  Very anime fantasy loli girl character design.

Edit: you can't see how successful a cash item shop with numerous P2W options in a golf/rpg game?

[WildFire15]

In what way?  It had significantly higher sales than CoH until third quarter 2008.  In some quarters nearly 3x the sales.

As for the "Other" line they did acquire Ntreev for a reason.  You tend not to buy a company that doesn't have a good cash flow.  As for those games, after checking out screen shots, I starting to see a pattern with them and B&S.  Very anime fantasy loli girl character design.

Edit: you can't see how successful a cash item shop with numerous P2W options in a golf/rpg game?

Ah, didn't realize they only acquired Ntreev in 2011. When I noticed it on the wikipedia article with such a similar name, I thought they'd held it for a lot longer. So yes, it makes more sense now, even if it does enforce the Korean gamer stereotype (anything with anime girls in and they're all over it)

As for Guild Wars, I thought it would be above the 25000 line more regularly and occasionally challenging Lineage. Hell, I thought it would have been more consistent rather then jumping up and down as it did before settling only slightly above and then dropping under CoH. They have just sunk masses into it's sequel, after all, so I did think it had been more of a run away success then CoH was.

I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing if Guild Wars didn't have 3 expansions in fairly quick succession (2 in 2006 and a third in 2007 and a forth in 2010), then it would have dropped under CoH and likely stayed there. Except for City of Villians release, CoH has remained surprisingly consistent. Hell, it shows how much NCsoft  is focused on the short term (something it shares with all major publishers these days) as they put a huge amount into Guild Wars 2 after it's successor boasted at least over a million accounts at one stage (that was in 2006, haven't been able to find any real numbers yet) yet never significantly outperformed CoH for long, an under advertised niche game with a subscription model and fewer players.

That's just my observations of it and they may be wrong. Time will tell if GW2 follows a similar pattern, but being a pay then free game, it's probably to be expected.