Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 722921 times)

Aggelakis

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1300 on: January 13, 2013, 03:07:44 AM »
China has recently had a change of policy concerning MMO's. They are now stricter on allowable female imaging.  This may not matter on GW2 but from what i've heard about B&S, it might not be allowed in China without a major overhaul. However, i don't know the specifics on China's new MMO policies and i haven't seen B&S yet, except for the underwhelming images on their US website.
B&S has already been overhauled for China. Much more tame.
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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1301 on: January 13, 2013, 03:31:51 AM »
China has recently had a change of policy concerning MMO's. They are now stricter on allowable female imaging.  This may not matter on GW2 but from what i've heard about B&S, it might not be allowed in China without a major overhaul. However, i don't know the specifics on China's new MMO policies and i haven't seen B&S yet, except for the underwhelming images on their US website.

B&S has already been overhauled for China. Much more tame.

They are in their 2nd 40 day test phase in China (close to finishing) and it appears that they've toned down the blood spray, eliminated the jiggle physics and covered up 90% of the exposed flesh in their costumes (well gave most of the outfits that were material impaired a full spandex unitard from neck to ankle).  Just before it started the black market price for an beta key into this test was in the $240 to $320 USD range.  That's a lot of money in China.
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Little Green Frog

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1302 on: January 13, 2013, 04:06:29 AM »
I do understand and know this, but my question was more in reference to what the X-mas was saying. My point was that stocks do have a purpose and importance. (I'd guess even moreso than you and X-mas are insinuating.) I was hoping for him to explain his point of view as to where they fall in importance compared to his ratio and if they are as low of importance as he suggested, then why are they treated so important.

Stock does have importance, however, as stated, it represents something that is perceived, while cap/book is about the real condition of a company. Stock price is prone to caprice and knee-jerk reactions from investors and may severely overestimate or underestimate company's ability to grow. Books, unless cooked, will tell you how things really are. That's why they are better than stock when it comes to making assumptions about company's health. There's no emotion there, just pure data.

Quinch

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1303 on: January 13, 2013, 04:17:41 AM »
I've always considered stock price to be an indicator of how well a company is expected to do, rather than how it's doing now. Investors looking to make a profit from the dividends, to be specific, would likely jump at low stock prices if they expected the company to do well, driving the price back up. This is apparently not happening, indicating that the overall confidence in growth is... lacking, possibly given NCsoft's track record in inability to meaningfully expand.

srmalloy

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1304 on: January 14, 2013, 04:41:43 AM »
My redside disgruntlement is that the people who made these boneheaded decisions will leap from the crashing plane with golden parachutes.  My blueside disgruntlement is that the employees are going to get royally shafted.

Although you do have to wonder what "CEO of NCSoft during its nose-dive into the ground" would do to your face, and hence your employability, within the mores of Korean culture... Unless this is some carefully-orchestrated move to make NCSoft auger in with the goal of being able to grab its IPs at bargain-basement prices without assuming any of its debts, and whoever is responsible for pushing the stick forward already has their exit to whichever corp picks up the pieces laid in place...

Codewalker

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1305 on: January 14, 2013, 05:25:15 AM »
Although you do have to wonder what "CEO of NCSoft during its nose-dive into the ground" would do to your face, and hence your employability, within the mores of Korean culture...

At least within US business culture, it's rare for those kinds of things to have a negative impact. CEO types tend to all be buddy buddy with each other. I've seen several leap from company to company after they collapse and are hired on without anyone batting an eye, sometimes even given bonuses for leaving their previous failing company before running it completely into the ground.

JaguarX

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1306 on: January 14, 2013, 07:26:47 AM »
At least within US business culture, it's rare for those kinds of things to have a negative impact. CEO types tend to all be buddy buddy with each other. I've seen several leap from company to company after they collapse and are hired on without anyone batting an eye, sometimes even given bonuses for leaving their previous failing company before running it completely into the ground.

yep happens all the time here.

Mister Bison

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1307 on: January 14, 2013, 07:38:55 AM »
At least within US business culture, it's rare for those kinds of things to have a negative impact. CEO types tend to all be buddy buddy with each other. I've seen several leap from company to company after they collapse and are hired on without anyone batting an eye, sometimes even given bonuses for leaving their previous failing company before running it completely into the ground.
Conversation between two CEOs:
"Hey buddy, how have you been ? How is your wife ?
- well well, and yours ?
- too. How's is your company going ?
- Oh we've killed a game and some. And you ?
- well I'm working on my next big coup. It'll be difficult after what I did to Goldman Sachs !
- Yeah that one really put you on top ! You're such a genius."
(no character was sarcastic)
Yeeessss....

srmalloy

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1308 on: January 14, 2013, 05:15:14 PM »
At least within US business culture, it's rare for those kinds of things to have a negative impact. CEO types tend to all be buddy buddy with each other. I've seen several leap from company to company after they collapse and are hired on without anyone batting an eye, sometimes even given bonuses for leaving their previous failing company before running it completely into the ground.

That's why I specified 'within the mores of Korean culture'; I don't know how much the cultural precepts extend into the 'all us upper-management' group -- whether the group elitism overshadows culture or vice versa. There are too many unknowns to be able to project, although it would be poetic justice for Kim to ride NCSoft into the ground and then find himself unemployable because he's a failure. We can dream.

NecrotechMaster

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1309 on: January 17, 2013, 08:09:33 AM »
the ncsoft stock seems like it is remaining steady atm, but solidly lower than it was a month ago

General Idiot

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1310 on: January 17, 2013, 01:49:22 PM »
Out of curiosity, what happened in or around October 2011 that was relevent to NCSoft? Cause looking at the really far back data (Admittedly with only my highly untrained eye) it seems like they've been in an overall downward trend ever since then.

NecrotechMaster

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1311 on: January 17, 2013, 05:43:07 PM »
if you look a bit further back, the significant downward trend has been continuing since the first unity rally, they have had minimal upswings since (iirc that was around sept 7)

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1312 on: January 17, 2013, 09:38:30 PM »
if you look a bit further back, the significant downward trend has been continuing since the first unity rally, they have had minimal upswings since (iirc that was around sept 7)

Which IMO is simply coincidence.  I can't be sure but I think that was around the time nearly everyone of the bullish analysts started to reduce their earnings estimates and target prices.  Compared to the previous two steep sell offs followed by rallies in mid April and early July, the early September sell off was both longer and more gradual.

The Sept pull back IMO is due to investors accepting that in the short term the stock price wasn't going to recover to it's 350,000 all time high, as each previous rallies ended up with a lower high than the one before, and decided to take some of their profits now.  The price went down to around 200,000-220,000 which was it's "support" level,  it's low during the previous two sell offs, until the 3Q numbers came out in early November.   The 3Q numbers were disappointing partially due to all the build up and then because it showed 1) B&S not getting Aion level sales in it's first full quarter (compared to Aion's first full quarter in 2009) and 2) the appearance that B&S's sales (it's only in Korea) came at the expense of their other three big NCsoft titles.  That pushed the stock off the ledge.  Not even the influx of GW2 sales helped.

So now it's at around 140,000.  It's my contention that the stock should have never reached 350,000 in the first place.  Talk about irrational exuberance with 100% price growth for nearly 3 years with little correlation in actual sales beyond Aion's first year.  The price now is close to where the company's sales and profits would justify it.  Maybe another 10-15% pull back because I don't think 4Q is going to be close to many analyst's predictions on GW2 sales.  ArenaNet just announced they hit 3 million units sold in total which is a little bit short compared to what some analysts predicted (pi million in sales).
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NecrotechMaster

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1313 on: January 17, 2013, 10:08:06 PM »
i do agree that it is unlikely that only our actions could have caused the stock to tumble that much, but it definitely was a wakeup call to ncsoft that they were shutting down a still active community and possibly some of their investors

because ncsoft did what they did in shutting the game down and pretty much consistently lying to everyone why they did it, it pleases me when i see anything negative about ncsoft

TimtheEnchanter

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1314 on: January 17, 2013, 10:18:43 PM »
i do agree that it is unlikely that only our actions could have caused the stock to tumble that much, but it definitely was a wakeup call to ncsoft that they were shutting down a still active community and possibly some of their investors

because ncsoft did what they did in shutting the game down and pretty much consistently lying to everyone why they did it, it pleases me when i see anything negative about ncsoft

Considering the amount of fear this has put into the MMO communities, I think they've done far more than just hurt themselves. Confidence in the MMO genre must be taking a horrid nosedive. People are starting to realize that they're being asked for commitment by businesses who may just be looking for a one night stand.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1315 on: January 17, 2013, 10:26:30 PM »
many mmos want customer retention though so that they get that continual sub fee

its the f2p ones that seem to want that "one night stand" type of thing

the hybrid ones like coh and CO i think did it best (especially coh) because it gives more power to subscribers but still caters to the poeple who play for free

as was mentioned in that one article where the insider source said the retention rate for coh was 95-98%, most other games companies would kill to have that much, cause just looking up some basic statistics on other games show they are only in the 75-85% range.  if coh had some actual advertising and wasnt trying to be strangled by ncsoft constantly it would prolly be much higher playerbase

i think that would be a key factor to actually getting someone interested in buying it, is the very high customer retention rate


i agree that when ncosft finally rung coh's neck and killed it, that definitely put fear out there, cause when a company is willing to kill a game with that high of a retention rate, who knows what other companies might do

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1316 on: January 17, 2013, 11:08:36 PM »
many mmos want customer retention though so that they get that continual sub fee

its the f2p ones that seem to want that "one night stand" type of thing

the hybrid ones like coh and CO i think did it best (especially coh) because it gives more power to subscribers but still caters to the poeple who play for free

as was mentioned in that one article where the insider source said the retention rate for coh was 95-98%, most other games companies would kill to have that much, cause just looking up some basic statistics on other games show they are only in the 75-85% range.  if coh had some actual advertising and wasnt trying to be strangled by ncsoft constantly it would prolly be much higher playerbase

i think that would be a key factor to actually getting someone interested in buying it, is the very high customer retention rate


i agree that when ncosft finally rung coh's neck and killed it, that definitely put fear out there, cause when a company is willing to kill a game with that high of a retention rate, who knows what other companies might do

At the end it was 95+%.  Obviously a game whose annual sales went from $35 million to $11 in 8 years doesn't have a 95% retention rate.  However looking at the last two years sales were flat to a slight decline so 95% sounds right, at the end.

And going back to your first comment, I hadn't seen them change their story about why.  "Changing focus" can encompass a lot of actual specific reasons.  When push came to shove they said it was because Paragon Studio wasn't profitable.  Choosing not to support a small development group in the red anymore certainly falls under "changing focus" just as much as "we don't get superheroes" or "we only want to invest in games that will also do well in Korea and Asia, our primary markets".

Let's say they publicly declared the last reason in a PR, would you be happier with a concrete reason.  Of course not the game would still be shutting down.  But you would have a reason to hang your hat on.  You may not like it but it would be a legitimate reason.

My first year in college, 1980, we had a Jack in the Box in town.  It closed and not just in town but in all the adjacent towns and cities as well as all the adjacent states.  I thought they went out of business nationwide but they simply pulled back to the southwest.  Focusing on your primary markets is an acceptable reason.

I use to go to TGI Friday's just for their Peperoni Pizzadilla appetizer, a quesadilla made with peperoni, cheese and pizza sauce.  At some point they simply dropped it and all their other alternative quesadillas.  Likely it wasn't selling well so they chose to drop them.  Ticked me off since I found the rest of their fair rather generic but I can understand it.  I'm willing to bet the item itself was profitable, just wasn't in high enough demand to warrant keeping it.

Both of these are rather mediocre analogies but they are examples of legitimate corporate decisions to improve the overall profits of their company which is the whole goal.  I haven't been to Friday's since and I haven't had a Jack in the Box burger in over 30 years but the loss of me haven't impacted either company in the long term.
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WildFire15

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1317 on: January 17, 2013, 11:18:22 PM »
At the end it was 95+%.  Obviously a game whose annual sales went from $35 million to $11 in 8 years doesn't have a 95% retention rate.  However looking at the last two years sales were flat to a slight decline so 95% sounds right, at the end.

And going back to your first comment, I hadn't seen them change their story about why.  "Changing focus" can encompass a lot of actual specific reasons.  When push came to shove they said it was because Paragon Studio wasn't profitable.  Choosing not to support a small development group in the red anymore certainly falls under "changing focus" just as much as "we don't get superheroes" or "we only want to invest in games that will also do well in Korea and Asia, our primary markets".

Let's say they publicly declared the last reason in a PR, would you be happier with a concrete reason.  Of course not the game would still be shutting down.  But you would have a reason to hang your hat on.  You may not like it but it would be a legitimate reason.

My first year in college, 1980, we had a Jack in the Box in town.  It closed and not just in town but in all the adjacent towns and cities as well as all the adjacent states.  I thought they went out of business nationwide but they simply pulled back to the southwest.  Focusing on your primary markets is an acceptable reason.

I use to go to TGI Friday's just for their Peperoni Pizzadilla appetizer, a quesadilla made with peperoni, cheese and pizza sauce.  At some point they simply dropped it and all their other alternative quesadillas.  Likely it wasn't selling well so they chose to drop them.  Ticked me off since I found the rest of their fair rather generic but I can understand it.  I'm willing to bet the item itself was profitable, just wasn't in high enough demand to warrant keeping it.

Both of these are rather mediocre analogies but they are examples of legitimate corporate decisions to improve the overall profits of their company which is the whole goal.  I haven't been to Friday's since and I haven't had a Jack in the Box burger in over 30 years but the loss of me haven't impacted either company in the long term.

So why do you think they wouldn't be willing to sell it? Does it give them more stock options or something?

Segev

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1318 on: January 17, 2013, 11:22:18 PM »
Aside from allowing them to sit on it and see if they ever want to use it again, I think there is a bit of pride involved. It's theirs. Not in a "their baby" sort of way, but in a miserly sort of way. It's theirs, and you can't have it. No, especially because you want to try to make it succeed. We said it couldn't; therefore, it obviously can't. Shut up.

I think there is a lot of personal ego at the top of NCSoft involved in this whole thing, and they may well be simply trying to spite certain people. I can think of a few guesses, but since this whole malice-before-business thought of mine is mostly guesswork, I will leave that to others to imagine.

I will note that they may not be seeing it as malice nor spite, but simply as protecting their image. Which is why the first word I chose to describe this is "pride."

WildFire15

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1319 on: January 17, 2013, 11:27:17 PM »
Aside from allowing them to sit on it and see if they ever want to use it again, I think there is a bit of pride involved. It's theirs. Not in a "their baby" sort of way, but in a miserly sort of way. It's theirs, and you can't have it. No, especially because you want to try to make it succeed. We said it couldn't; therefore, it obviously can't. Shut up.

I think there is a lot of personal ego at the top of NCSoft involved in this whole thing, and they may well be simply trying to spite certain people. I can think of a few guesses, but since this whole malice-before-business thought of mine is mostly guesswork, I will leave that to others to imagine.

I will note that they may not be seeing it as malice nor spite, but simply as protecting their image. Which is why the first word I chose to describe this is "pride."

Wouldn't be surprised. EA probably feels extra special that they own Dungeon Keeper and the Theme series in as much the same way as Microsoft feel special that they own Rare but then again, Microsoft did release Asheron's Call to Turbine so it seems some companies aren't as concerned as others.