NCSoft Stockwatch

[srmalloy]

Its called a puuuuun  :'(

There it goes, all my funniness is used up. Time to go on youtube and start making comedy videos, or start pitching my jokes to square enix for their localizations.  :gonk:

Wall, shoot... If'n Ah'd thought you was funnin' me, Ah'd of dug out mah stiletto-heel hobnail boots to dance all over yer humor, steada' jest kickin' it into a corner...

[Illusionss]

So... it looks like last week's boost was just a rock they hit on the way down.

SWEET!

[FatherXmas]

If the company's finances are structurally unsound the price will "tank" that is drop and stay relatively low for the long term. [ie Facebook]

Everything else is short-term fluctuation.

While I agree that their stock is overvalued (I think 90,000-100,000 is a good price) they are far from having their finances structurally unsound.  However as long as most of the firms following NCSoft keep saying it's a buy opportunity and that the price will go to 300,000 within the year the 150,000-160,000 price seems to be it's new support level.

They just had a record profit for a quarter.  They have about $100 million in cash in the bank and another $300 million in short term investments.  Perhaps you could indicate what about their finances you find structurally unsound or did you think that just sounded good?

[Atlantea]

I always said we weren't going to hurt them immediately. And what with their shady juggling of finances and stocks and "creative accounting Enron style" they'll look good for even longer.

I thought the same thing about Bioware at the beginning of the year when the Mass Effect 3 ending fiasco happened. SO MANY people had pre-ordered that there was no way they were going to take ANY financial damage in the short run. By any "pure numbers" standings, Mass Effect 3 was a runaway smash hit.

But between the Ending controversy and the flop of SW:TOR (partially fueled, I believe, by many gamers abandoning both titles in disgust) I figured the place to look and see whether Bioware (and by extension, EA) would be hurt would be to see how good the pre-orders would be for their NEXT title. Let's see what happens when Dragon Age 3 comes out.

Similarly, NCSoft MADE their main profits on GW2 before the announcement of the closing of COH because of pre-orders and almost a weeks worth of sales beforehand.

We can't affect their actual profits right now. By any pure numbers standings, despite their stock tanking, they are in a good position.

By any pure numbers standards.

But what about reputation? What about intangibles? And how will that affect their NEXT game release? Will we have an affect on Boobs and Shame?

And what about NCSoft and Arenanet's bone-headed move as of the Lost Shores patch of completely doing a 180 and going back on their word that there would never be a gear grind in GW2? (Mind you - you can still play the game in totally casual mode while leveling up. But the end game now has gear grind.) I've been looking around on the review sites and holy CRAP there are a lot of pissed off Guild Wars fans! Generally the line being used most often is that GW2 was supposed to be different from other MMOs in it's genre, but now it's no different at all.

That's going to affect the future as well, I think.

And the steady posting of FACTS about NCSoft everywhere we can reach I believe will have an effect.

Just don't get discouraged because NCSoft is rolling in the dough NOW. It's all short term gain and they are STILL doing stupid things to jeopardize their bottom line.

[FatherXmas]

And what with their shady juggling of finances and stocks and "creative accounting Enron style" they'll look good for even longer.

Any proof of that statement, at all.  I doubt it.

And it doesn't matter if their reputation in the west has suffered because the bulk of their sales and their growth in in Asia, China specifically.  GW2 still has quite the positive spin here in the west and I suspect their sales will still be going strong when NCSoft reports their 4Q numbers in February.

Do I think Blade & Soul will falter here and in Europe.  Yes, but not because of any fallout caused by CoH's closure but from it being yet another PvP/Korean grind fest style of an MMO that simply don't do well over here.  Period.  There may be an initial surge among teenage boys due to the character creator.  They may not actually play their female characters but I'm sure they'll have a collection of "hot babes" to ogle over without the worry that their parents will find the porn sites they've been frequenting.  But in the long term it will burn out even quicker than Aion did over here.

[Samuraiko]

When I went to see THE HOBBIT, it had not one... not two... but FIVE separate game ads before it.

Bioshock Infinite
GW 2
WoW: Kung Fu Panda
Something console-based
And an FPS, I think (both were Sony games)

Oh, *AND* an ad for Emerald City Comic-Con (because I live near Seattle).

Michelle
aka
Samuraiko/Dark_Respite

[NecrotechMaster]

when i went to movie theater last (to see wreck it ralph) i didnt see any game previews, only movie previews lol

if i had seen any for GW2 i sure as heck would have booed it

[DrakeGrimm]

If COH had gotten any of the ad elements GW2 has enjoyed, it would have positively FLOURISHED.

* DrakeGrimm grumbles.

[eabrace]

Oddly enough, I don't recall seeing any game ads before the Hobbit when I went to see it on Friday afternoon.

I definitely would have remembered seeing a GW2 ad.

[Blondeshell]

A GW2 ad played before the 3D showing at the NCG theater I went to.

[HarvesterOfEyes]

While I agree that their stock is overvalued (I think 90,000-100,000 is a good price) they are far from having their finances structurally unsound.  However as long as most of the firms following NCSoft keep saying it's a buy opportunity and that the price will go to 300,000 within the year the 150,000-160,000 price seems to be it's new support level.

They just had a record profit for a quarter.  They have about $100 million in cash in the bank and another $300 million in short term investments.  Perhaps you could indicate what about their finances you find structurally unsound or did you think that just sounded good?

Key word is "if". I make no such assessment.

Down one session versus up the previous session is not "tanking".

I want to see NCSoft feel pain that makes them re-think their "strategy" as much as the next person here. My goal in this thread is to persuade people to disbelieve that day-to-day fluctuations indicate any such thing.

[corvus1970]

Stock-prices are like butterflies: they fly kind of crooked ;)

[FatherXmas]

Key word is "if". I make no such assessment.

Down one session versus up the previous session is not "tanking".

I want to see NCSoft feel pain that makes them re-think their "strategy" as much as the next person here. My goal in this thread is to persuade people to disbelieve that day-to-day fluctuations indicate any such thing.

Except a plummeting stock price doesn't hurt them.  Not one bit. 

Stock prices are simply a reflection of what others think a company is worth, not what it's actually worth.

[Kitsudragon]

The ugly part is when they spin off NCSoft West to make the division into its own company.

Currently, NCSoft West is a department inside the NCSoft machine. After they pull off this restructuring they're talking about, NCSW will be a separate company, but wholly owned by NCSoft.

The company is trumpeting to anyone who'll listen that this move will allow them to "sell" about 78 billion Korean Won in related assets, which sounds really good on paper. The company sells a massive amount of unneeded infrastructure to another company, and makes a ton of profit doing it.

But since NCSW is going to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of the parent company, all they're really doing is restructuring one of their departments, and transferring assets around within the company. No money actually changes hands, except on paper. All the assets and money actually stay within the overall NCSoft corporation. But it looks good on the balance sheet.

So I expect the stock price will shoot up when they make that announcement, even though it doesn't actually *mean* anything...

[FatherXmas]

The ugly part is when they spin off NCSoft West to make the division into its own company.

Currently, NCSoft West is a department inside the NCSoft machine. After they pull off this restructuring they're talking about, NCSW will be a separate company, but wholly owned by NCSoft.

The company is trumpeting to anyone who'll listen that this move will allow them to "sell" about 78 billion Korean Won in related assets, which sounds really good on paper. The company sells a massive amount of unneeded infrastructure to another company, and makes a ton of profit doing it.

But since NCSW is going to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of the parent company, all they're really doing is restructuring one of their departments, and transferring assets around within the company. No money actually changes hands, except on paper. All the assets and money actually stay within the overall NCSoft corporation. But it looks good on the balance sheet.

So I expect the stock price will shoot up when they make that announcement, even though it doesn't actually *mean* anything...

Yes but the 78 billion KrW being paid for those assets, plus the 50 billion in initial start up money, is coming from somewhere and that's the stock this new subsidiary is selling to NCSoft proper so it will show up on the balance sheet still and the result is a wash.

[HarvesterOfEyes]

Except a plummeting stock price doesn't hurt them.  Not one bit. 

Stock prices are simply a reflection of what others think a company is worth, not what it's actually worth.

Again, addressing a claim I don't make.

[TonyV]

While I agree that their stock is overvalued (I think 90,000-100,000 is a good price) they are far from having their finances structurally unsound.

I don't necessarily agree with you; I think that at some point we're going to hear about some dirty laundry coming out about NCsoft.  But nevertheless, I'm glad you're here keeping the conversation honest.  Is that weird?

[Victoria Victrix]

While I agree that their stock is overvalued (I think 90,000-100,000 is a good price) they are far from having their finances structurally unsound.  However as long as most of the firms following NCSoft keep saying it's a buy opportunity and that the price will go to 300,000 within the year the 150,000-160,000 price seems to be it's new support level.

"Joe," the Korean Times reporter, told me that the suspicion around the paper is that the three firms following NCSoft are being bribed to inflate the value of the stock, but that there is not as yet any proof.

[NecrotechMaster]

"Joe," the Korean Times reporter, told me that the suspicion around the paper is that the three firms following NCSoft are being bribed to inflate the value of the stock, but that there is not as yet any proof.

interesting, hopefully that reporter will continue to investigate, if they find something scandelous happening this could tank ncsoft faster than them constantly shooting themselves in the foot

[JanessaVR]

I don't necessarily agree with you; I think that at some point we're going to hear about some dirty laundry coming out about NCsoft.  But nevertheless, I'm glad you're here keeping the conversation honest.  Is that weird?

Nope.  This is war, and we should always try to be honest with ourselves how well it's going.  Keeping it real - a good thing.