More changes with NCSoft

[FatherXmas]

I don't think they're doing so great on home turf. Their customers may still love them, but the investors are losing faith.

Even if they have countless loyal fans in Korea, they won't bring in as much money as investors. If they lose investors, they lose the funds to produce games, content and events. If they have nothing to offer their customers, they will lose them. If investors see they are losing customers, they will continue to sell off their shares and leave as well.

Well the stock market in general is just a huge voting machine that shows which companies people have confidence in.  Some of their decisions are based on simple fundamentals; sales, earnings, balance sheet and the various values calculated from it such as book value, price to earnings, price to sales, price to book and earnings per share.   Some use those ratios as guide to when a stock is over or under value.

Then you toss in market segment analysis, how well they are doing relative to their competitors; overall economic concerns; ancillary news stories (such as The Koren Times piece that came out a day or so ago).  Various investment firms then advise their customers if they think a stock is over or undervalued and what they should do if it was them.

In 2009 NCSoft had a huge boost in earnings and sales due to Aion.  We are talking sales growth of 83% and earnings growth of 623% (2008 wasn't a great year for earnings).   It was during 2009 that their stock first started it's climb. 

2010 was a flat year in sales and earnings but they kept talking up industry growth, talking about their future games, hinting they could repeat what happened with Aion. 

In 2011 both sales and earnings were down a fair amount and it seems that during 2011 someone woke up and decided that NCSoft was way overvalued and it's stock slide started. 

In 2012 it didn't look good when the company's CEO and 25% owner decides to sell off 60% of his stock to a rival company on the grounds that it's part of a cooperative arrangement on new games.  Then the 3rd quarter numbers came out at the start of November, the first full quarter of Blade & Soul, and it wasn't a repeat of Aion.  It did well enough but their other big three titles lost as much in sales as B&S brought in.  If it wasn't for Guild Wars 2, a game not created by NCSoft's Korean studios,  the numbers could have been just as bad as the 2nd quarter, where they lost money for the first time in years.  Again BOOM, big drop.  A lot of stock exchanged hands the first day and NCSoft is still being traded at a higher volume than it's 3-month average.

Now yesterday or the day before was the article about Ms Lackey calling them out over the closure and that may have something to do with perception which may have started another price adjustment downward.  Yes it's still about a property that wasn't known well if at all in Korea but news of closing a game that was still bringing in some money doesn't sound too good.  As of this point it's down another 2%, around 33% since the Q3 numbers came out and down 61% since it's peak in early October 2011.

Again, stock value isn't really a number that accurately reflects the actual strength or weakness of a company but the perceived strength or weakness.

(yes I know that there's a separate thread about the stock price)

[Samuel Tow]

Given how NCsoft has handled its Western properties, I get the feeling their upper management just have no idea how to handle a Western market. If the company's losing money, then I would not be in the slightest surprised to see them retreat from the Western market entirely. Frankly, given the nature of their "Eastern" games, that's probably best for everybody.

[Illusionss]

Here's the thing though: if they do retract to Asia-only stuff, why would Asians want to game with a company that has closed five(?) MMOs? After all, people in Asia pay subscriptions and spend time leveling up and buying stuff in the market, just like the rest of us do. Of course they have farmers and RMT idiots, but what game doesn't? Most people in Asia probably play just like we do. Why would they want to lose the characters they have spent time and money creating? We didn't like it: why would Asian people like it? Asians are not exactly stupid people, far from it.

It would be really delicious if EVERYONE all around the globe decided, "Hey this company sucks. Look at the crap they are doing! Let's go over to Blizzard, at least they dont close a game every six months."

In other news, I own GW2. Yes, I hang my head in shame. But honestly, that game is so damn boring. Mission: I go to an outdoor dinner party and talk to some guy posing as a friend, and he follows me around trying to take credit for what I do. Its a thrill a minute, let me tell you. SNOOOoooOOOOoooOOOOOOZE-FEST.

[CG]

Here's the thing though: if they do retract to Asia-only stuff, why would Asians want to game with a company that has closed five(?) MMOs? After all, people in Asia pay subscriptions and spend time leveling up and buying stuff in the market, just like the rest of us do.

I wonder if there's a fundamental difference between western and eastern customers?  I wonder if they aren't as attached to their characters?  Or they just keep remaking them from game to game. 

What is the track record for other companies operating in the Eastern MMO space closing MMOs?

[Valjean]

I wonder if there's a fundamental difference between western and eastern customers?  I wonder if they aren't as attached to their characters?  Or they just keep remaking them from game to game. 

What is the track record for other companies operating in the Eastern MMO space closing MMOs?

There are behavioral differences.

Eastern MMO players in general tend to value PvP, grinding, group play, while Western MMO players tend to value PvE, fast leveling, solo play. Those are just two of the differences. Aion's probably a good example of what happens when you try to launch an Eastern MMO in the West without any gameplay adjustments.

[FatherXmas]

Here's the thing though: if they do retract to Asia-only stuff, why would Asians want to game with a company that has closed five(?) MMOs?

Well Auto Assault, Tabla Rosa and CoH were virtually unknown in Korea.  Do you care if an American (or whatever country you may be in) company axes some product that isn't sold here?  Very likely you aren't even aware of that product to begin with.

[Starsman]

Well Auto Assault, Tabla Rosa and CoH were virtually unknown in Korea.  Do you care if an American (or whatever country you may be in) company axes some product that isn't sold here?  Very likely you aren't even aware of that product to begin with.

I have always felt sympathy for the players of every MMO that I have ever heard of being canceled, even the ones I honestly think "sucked". At the end of the day, there is likely at LEAST a thousand people out there that have been playing the game, enjoying the world and building relationships together.

It can be devastating for any community to have an MMO shut down.

I would not feel the same way I feel about City of Heroes, same way I would cry more for the death of a family member than the death of a stranger. Does not mean I don't feel bad about the family of that dead person. I just feel stronger about my personal loss.

But I am derailing... truth be told, I doubt Koreans have to worry too much. NCSoft seems to really care for their Asian market and the MMOs they host there. They just don't care about the western stuff. Everything here is just a disposable experiment.