New efforts!

[MM3squints]

1)  It was 1st and goal from the 2 with 1 time out left and about a minute left on the clock.
2)  You don't want to give the Patriots much time left on the clock, should you score.
3)  Wilson got lucky with the passing.  Through much of the first half, he was without a completion.  That pass to the 6 yard line (? doing this from memory) was a miracle catch.

So my thoughts are these:

The clock was ticking.  If you complete the catch for a TD, it's good.  You have to hope the D can hold Brady and company. 

If the pass was incomplete, it was essentially a spike and the clock stops without wasting the timeout.  At that point, you pound Lynch up the middle the next play, call timeout, and have two quick chances left to cross the goal line.

The INT was, let's be honest, a fluke, much like the miracle catch a few plays before.

The problem was that the secondary was manhandling the Seahawks recievers all game.  I would have thought it would be slightly smarter to throw to the outside of the line than right over the center...

Now, were it me, I would have given the ball to Marshawn.  But I get the thought process of WHY they went for the pass.

You should be a NFL Analysis. I hear the NFL Network has a spot open :P

[Arcana]

1)  It was 1st and goal from the 2 with 1 time out left and about a minute left on the clock.
2)  You don't want to give the Patriots much time left on the clock, should you score.
3)  Wilson got lucky with the passing.  Through much of the first half, he was without a completion.  That pass to the 6 yard line (? doing this from memory) was a miracle catch.

So my thoughts are these:

The clock was ticking.  If you complete the catch for a TD, it's good.  You have to hope the D can hold Brady and company. 

If the pass was incomplete, it was essentially a spike and the clock stops without wasting the timeout.  At that point, you pound Lynch up the middle the next play, call timeout, and have two quick chances left to cross the goal line.

The INT was, let's be honest, a fluke, much like the miracle catch a few plays before.

The problem was that the secondary was manhandling the Seahawks recievers all game.  I would have thought it would be slightly smarter to throw to the outside of the line than right over the center...

Now, were it me, I would have given the ball to Marshawn.  But I get the thought process of WHY they went for the pass.

It was even tighter than that.  When Wilson snaps the ball there's actually only about 25 seconds on the clock.  They deliberately burned the clock down to under 30 then snapped.  At that moment Seattle has one timeout.  If they run Lynch and he doesn't get in, they will have to call their final timeout on third down.  *Now* with only about 20 seconds to go and out of timeouts they would be in a situation where if they run again and don't make it in, even though it would be fourth down and they would theoretically have one more play, the clock could have run out before they could run it.  They did not have enough time and timeouts to actually have a guaranteed four shots at it unless they ran hurry up instead of burned that time, which could have given the Patriots the ball back with almost a minute to go.  Instead, Carroll decides to run a quick pass that he figures will either be a touchdown or an incomplete, which would give then third down, with a timeout, clock stopped, and he could *still* run Lynch on third down because the timeout would give him one more play.

Even more crazy than that, when Wilson decides to throw the ball the receiver is actually open and the defender is actually out of position to make the play.  Watch the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DIkP_tnqCg and at 25 seconds on the clock notice that Seattle is running a pick with Kearse picking for Lockette.  Butler sees the pick and decides to immediately charge the receiver.  If Wilson throws directly to the receiver that's a touchdown, but instead he leads the receiver and Butler actually gets to the spot before Lockette to make the interception.  This only happens because Butler charges the spot *instantly* when the play starts.  Half a second later and he's late and that's a touchdown.

I still think it was the wrong call because you take the points and force the opponent to do something, rather than be tricky and potentially give the game away, but it was not as stupid a call as some people suggest because there was a rational reason for doing it.  It was just, in my opinion, not the best option.

But here's the thing no one seems to be talking about, and I was practically screaming at the TV.  Butler makes a *horrible* mistake.  He runs out of the endzone and gets tackled at the two (the celebration penalty then backs them up to the one, but that's not relevant to this discussion).  That's critical because if he goes down in the endzone that's touchback and the game is over.  But because he gets tackled just outside the endzeone, the game is not over.  It seems the only person on the field that realizes this is Tom Brady, because he lines up to take a knee and then calls timeout.  I think its because he realized what I realized: the mathematics of the game create a problem.  The Patriots are up by four and Brady is about to take a knee and take a safety.  That will make the score 28 to 26, and they will have to free kick with about 20 seconds on the clock.  Seattle could call for a free catch, they'd have the ball somewhere in the middle of the field, with a timeout, and they would only need maybe thirty or forty yards to get to extreme field goal range.  A field goal would then make it 29 to 28 and Seattle could win on a long range field goal.

I think Brady goes to the sidelines and tells Belichick we need to try to draw them offsides so we can get out of the endzone, which they then proceed to do.  Seattle I think thought their only way to win was to induce a fumble, which made them easy to draw.  If they had just stood there and chased Brady around (he would have probably scrambled in the end zone to burn time) they could have gotten the safety and the ball with maybe 15 seconds and a field goal to win which would have been a long shot, but not ludicrously so.

Of course then they start throwing punches and the game really over.  But I believe Seattle didn't think that through to the end, and gave up their last chance to win.

[mrultimate]

It was even tighter than that.  When Wilson snaps the ball there's actually only about 25 seconds on the clock.  They deliberately burned the clock down to under 30 then snapped.  At that moment Seattle has one timeout.  If they run Lynch and he doesn't get in, they will have to call their final timeout on third down.  *Now* with only about 20 seconds to go and out of timeouts they would be in a situation where if they run again and don't make it in, even though it would be fourth down and they would theoretically have one more play, the clock could have run out before they could run it.  They did not have enough time and timeouts to actually have a guaranteed four shots at it unless they ran hurry up instead of burned that time, which could have given the Patriots the ball back with almost a minute to go.  Instead, Carroll decides to run a quick pass that he figures will either be a touchdown or an incomplete, which would give then third down, with a timeout, clock stopped, and he could *still* run Lynch on third down because the timeout would give him one more play.

Even more crazy than that, when Wilson decides to throw the ball the receiver is actually open and the defender is actually out of position to make the play.  Watch the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DIkP_tnqCg and at 25 seconds on the clock notice that Seattle is running a pick with Kearse picking for Lockette.  Butler sees the pick and decides to immediately charge the receiver.  If Wilson throws directly to the receiver that's a touchdown, but instead he leads the receiver and Butler actually gets to the spot before Lockette to make the interception.  This only happens because Butler charges the spot *instantly* when the play starts.  Half a second later and he's late and that's a touchdown.

I still think it was the wrong call because you take the points and force the opponent to do something, rather than be tricky and potentially give the game away, but it was not as stupid a call as some people suggest because there was a rational reason for doing it.  It was just, in my opinion, not the best option.

But here's the thing no one seems to be talking about, and I was practically screaming at the TV.  Butler makes a *horrible* mistake.  He runs out of the endzone and gets tackled at the two (the celebration penalty then backs them up to the one, but that's not relevant to this discussion).  That's critical because if he goes down in the endzone that's touchback and the game is over.  But because he gets tackled just outside the endzeone, the game is not over.  It seems the only person on the field that realizes this is Tom Brady, because he lines up to take a knee and then calls timeout.  I think its because he realized what I realized: the mathematics of the game create a problem.  The Patriots are up by four and Brady is about to take a knee and take a safety.  That will make the score 28 to 26, and they will have to free kick with about 20 seconds on the clock.  Seattle could call for a free catch, they'd have the ball somewhere in the middle of the field, with a timeout, and they would only need maybe thirty or forty yards to get to extreme field goal range.  A field goal would then make it 29 to 28 and Seattle could win on a long range field goal.

I think Brady goes to the sidelines and tells Belichick we need to try to draw them offsides so we can get out of the endzone, which they then proceed to do.  Seattle I think thought their only way to win was to induce a fumble, which made them easy to draw.  If they had just stood there and chased Brady around (he would have probably scrambled in the end zone to burn time) they could have gotten the safety and the ball with maybe 15 seconds and a field goal to win which would have been a long shot, but not ludicrously so.

Of course then they start throwing punches and the game really over.  But I believe Seattle didn't think that through to the end, and gave up their last chance to win.

BEST. POST. EVER.

[Minotaur]

It was even tighter than that.  When Wilson snaps the ball there's actually only about 25 seconds on the clock.  They deliberately burned the clock down to under 30 then snapped.  At that moment Seattle has one timeout.  If they run Lynch and he doesn't get in, they will have to call their final timeout on third down.  *Now* with only about 20 seconds to go and out of timeouts they would be in a situation where if they run again and don't make it in, even though it would be fourth down and they would theoretically have one more play, the clock could have run out before they could run it.  They did not have enough time and timeouts to actually have a guaranteed four shots at it unless they ran hurry up instead of burned that time, which could have given the Patriots the ball back with almost a minute to go.  Instead, Carroll decides to run a quick pass that he figures will either be a touchdown or an incomplete, which would give then third down, with a timeout, clock stopped, and he could *still* run Lynch on third down because the timeout would give him one more play.

Even more crazy than that, when Wilson decides to throw the ball the receiver is actually open and the defender is actually out of position to make the play.  Watch the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DIkP_tnqCg and at 25 seconds on the clock notice that Seattle is running a pick with Kearse picking for Lockette.  Butler sees the pick and decides to immediately charge the receiver.  If Wilson throws directly to the receiver that's a touchdown, but instead he leads the receiver and Butler actually gets to the spot before Lockette to make the interception.  This only happens because Butler charges the spot *instantly* when the play starts.  Half a second later and he's late and that's a touchdown.

I still think it was the wrong call because you take the points and force the opponent to do something, rather than be tricky and potentially give the game away, but it was not as stupid a call as some people suggest because there was a rational reason for doing it.  It was just, in my opinion, not the best option.

But here's the thing no one seems to be talking about, and I was practically screaming at the TV.  Butler makes a *horrible* mistake.  He runs out of the endzone and gets tackled at the two (the celebration penalty then backs them up to the one, but that's not relevant to this discussion).  That's critical because if he goes down in the endzone that's touchback and the game is over.  But because he gets tackled just outside the endzeone, the game is not over.  It seems the only person on the field that realizes this is Tom Brady, because he lines up to take a knee and then calls timeout.  I think its because he realized what I realized: the mathematics of the game create a problem.  The Patriots are up by four and Brady is about to take a knee and take a safety.  That will make the score 28 to 26, and they will have to free kick with about 20 seconds on the clock.  Seattle could call for a free catch, they'd have the ball somewhere in the middle of the field, with a timeout, and they would only need maybe thirty or forty yards to get to extreme field goal range.  A field goal would then make it 29 to 28 and Seattle could win on a long range field goal.

I think Brady goes to the sidelines and tells Belichick we need to try to draw them offsides so we can get out of the endzone, which they then proceed to do.  Seattle I think thought their only way to win was to induce a fumble, which made them easy to draw.  If they had just stood there and chased Brady around (he would have probably scrambled in the end zone to burn time) they could have gotten the safety and the ball with maybe 15 seconds and a field goal to win which would have been a long shot, but not ludicrously so.

Of course then they start throwing punches and the game really over.  But I believe Seattle didn't think that through to the end, and gave up their last chance to win.

I disagree with some of your analysis: (I was watching this as a neutral)

The throw was fine, the defender shoulder charges the receiver out of the way (contact is way before the ball arrives, contact is shoulder to shoulder from the side) and takes his place to catch the ball. It's within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, after the ball is thrown and I can't remember what exactly you're allowed to do in that situation.

I called the interception mistake at the time, TB = end of game.

Watch the offside play that followed again, the center head bobs, that should have been called on NE. I'm an ex nose tackle and I'd have been fuming if he'd got away with that against me.

The other call that really changed it was earlier in the 4th, Seattle receiver makes a great cut, DB falls over and as he heads to the ground, arm sweeps and ankle taps the receiver causing him to fall over before he akes the catch when he's otherwise off to the end zone from a long way out. They missed the interference call, I don't know how and NE got the ball back from a punt when it should have been a 25? yard PI penalty and a 1st down. 

[rebel 1812]

Just to be safe, I wouldn't even ask for a time line. If I remember correctly, last time Nate gave us details it almost derailed everything. To take your mind off CoX, I raise the question, why didn't they give Marshawn Lynch the ball?

You really have to wonder about who you are doing business with; if people on an internet forum have a tremendous impact on them.   Come to think about it, then these people should be responsive to internet polls.  And yet they didn't care about the internet poll to save CoX.

[Arcana]

I disagree with some of your analysis: (I was watching this as a neutral)

The throw was fine, the defender shoulder charges the receiver out of the way (contact is way before the ball arrives, contact is shoulder to shoulder from the side) and takes his place to catch the ball. It's within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, after the ball is thrown and I can't remember what exactly you're allowed to do in that situation.

I disagree the contact was "way before" the ball arrives: in fact I believe the video evidence shows the opposite.  If you watch the video right at 2:20 the ball is basically right there at the receiver: its so close its unclear if the ball touches the receiver's hand or not (the receiver's arm gets hit by the defender and his hand moves to the right of screen, its impossible to tell if he touches it or not from replay).  If it did, that would make the contact automatically legal by definition.  However, I think even if the receiver did not make contact with the ball, the contact was not defensive pass interference because contact was made by a defender playing the ball and was not made through the back of the receiver (contact was shoulder to shoulder as you mention).

You can also see the pass from (approximately) the QBs point of view at that point in the replay, and he's clearly leading the receiver thinking the receiver has space to move through the pass.  If he had thrown slightly right of that line the ball would have been at the numbers of the receiver and at most it would have been a dropped pass.  I think Wilson sees the defender covering the corner, thinks the pick is there, and doesn't realize the defender isn't waiting for the throw but trying to beat the receiver to the goal line almost immediately and just didn't account for him.

Not saying it was a bad pass per se: leading the receiver coming across is the normal thing to do.  But in this specific situation a direct pass to the receiver would have been the better throw.  The kind of throw Brady, or say Aaron Rogers would tend to throw in that situation would have been more of a bullet to the receiver which would not have been intercepted in that situation.  That was more of a Manning (either) throw, or maybe a Romo throw.  Also, if you're running a pick at the goal line the receiver should have stopped at that spot anyway and not continued across the field.  If the play called for the receiver to stop at the spot and for Wilson to throw a bullet immediately I'm pretty sure it would have been a touchdown.  But I don't think that was what was called.  I think the pick was called but the receiver was called to continue the route to give Wilson time to determine if he was going to be open or not.  It was a throw if open, throw away if not call.  Ironically, I think the safe call indirectly ended up causing the interception.

Watch the offside play that followed again, the center head bobs, that should have been called on NE. I'm an ex nose tackle and I'd have been fuming if he'd got away with that against me.

The first head bob is normal: I'm not sure what the explicit rule is, but that happens literally on every play and its never called.  The *second* head bob is questionable, but by then a Seattle lineman is also clearly not just in the neutral zone but actually into the NE line: at 4:55 on the video a Seattle player has (apparently) already made contact with a NE lineman - #63 jumps forward as the Seattle guy is over him, which is basically always called against the defense as inducement.

Center head bobs are one of those things that aren't called unless considered egregious, and officials just don't call it often.  Whether they should call it more often or not, it did not affect the actual Seattle lineman that actually made contact, and if they did call that then, after not calling it pretty much ever, neutral observers would have considered that highly questionable.

Moreover, it also wouldn't have changed much, because at that point the penalty would not have changed anything.  The officials would have moved the ball back a couple inches, and NE and Seattle would have been right back where they started, and I suspect Seattle would have still been drawn offsides, because they really seemed to think their only chance to win was to somehow cause a fumble.  A half the distance to the goal penalty would only matter if NE had any intention of trying to get out of the endzone with a real play.  I doubt they were going to try.  I think they thought the safety was inevitable unless they could get a defensive penalty and were not going to do something dumb that could cause a fumble in the endzone - the only thing that could have sunk NE immediately.

The other call that really changed it was earlier in the 4th, Seattle receiver makes a great cut, DB falls over and as he heads to the ground, arm sweeps and ankle taps the receiver causing him to fall over before he akes the catch when he's otherwise off to the end zone from a long way out. They missed the interference call, I don't know how and NE got the ball back from a punt when it should have been a 25? yard PI penalty and a 1st down.

That one was also pointed out during the broadcast, but that's a different discussion from the crazy ending.

[Takinalis]

What the heck does this have to do with the Hamidon raid?

[Twisted Toon]

What the heck does this have to do with the Hamidon raid?

It's all code for the new tactics used to take down The Hamidon.

[Arcana]

It's all code for the new tactics used to take down The Hamidon.

We had to come up with new tactics in Issue 9, when the devs decided Hamidon's mez protection was underinflated and changed the encounter.

[Jim Justice]

That reminds me of some PA teams from however long ago that was.
We had some good times up there ;)

[Ohioknight]

So with the team dark and no news, do folks think Agge should just lock the "Mask Comes Off" and put us all back on one thread?

Any announcement or tragedy would be it's own thread at this point, wouldn't it?

[darkgob]

So with the team dark and no news, do folks think Agge should just lock the "Mask Comes Off" and put us all back on one thread?

Any announcement or tragedy would be it's own thread at this point, wouldn't it?

second

[Surelle]

So with the team dark and no news, do folks think Agge should just lock the "Mask Comes Off" and put us all back on one thread?

Any announcement or tragedy would be it's own thread at this point, wouldn't it?

Not a bad idea. 

[Harpospoke]

I really does boggle the mind for that play call (and they had two time outs too.) Probably because Pete Carroll just wanted to put the icing on the cake for Wilson (though he denies changing the play.) Although I think it is pretty ironic that the Pats rallied in the 4th to win like the Seahawks rallied in the 4th against my Packers in the last moments of the Championship game.

If you think about it, the NFC teams all fell to heartbreaking losses.  (Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle)   In hindsight, there is a poetry to it...like destiny.

It was even tighter than that.  When Wilson snaps the ball there's actually only about 25 seconds on the clock.  They deliberately burned the clock down to under 30 then snapped.  At that moment Seattle has one timeout.  If they run Lynch and he doesn't get in, they will have to call their final timeout on third down.  *Now* with only about 20 seconds to go and out of timeouts they would be in a situation where if they run again and don't make it in, even though it would be fourth down and they would theoretically have one more play, the clock could have run out before they could run it.  They did not have enough time and timeouts to actually have a guaranteed four shots at it unless they ran hurry up instead of burned that time, which could have given the Patriots the ball back with almost a minute to go.  Instead, Carroll decides to run a quick pass that he figures will either be a touchdown or an incomplete, which would give then third down, with a timeout, clock stopped, and he could *still* run Lynch on third down because the timeout would give him one more play.

Even more crazy than that, when Wilson decides to throw the ball the receiver is actually open and the defender is actually out of position to make the play.  Watch the replay here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DIkP_tnqCg and at 25 seconds on the clock notice that Seattle is running a pick with Kearse picking for Lockette.  Butler sees the pick and decides to immediately charge the receiver.  If Wilson throws directly to the receiver that's a touchdown, but instead he leads the receiver and Butler actually gets to the spot before Lockette to make the interception.  This only happens because Butler charges the spot *instantly* when the play starts.  Half a second later and he's late and that's a touchdown.

I still think it was the wrong call because you take the points and force the opponent to do something, rather than be tricky and potentially give the game away, but it was not as stupid a call as some people suggest because there was a rational reason for doing it.  It was just, in my opinion, not the best option.

But here's the thing no one seems to be talking about, and I was practically screaming at the TV.  Butler makes a *horrible* mistake.  He runs out of the endzone and gets tackled at the two (the celebration penalty then backs them up to the one, but that's not relevant to this discussion).  That's critical because if he goes down in the endzone that's touchback and the game is over.  But because he gets tackled just outside the endzeone, the game is not over.  It seems the only person on the field that realizes this is Tom Brady, because he lines up to take a knee and then calls timeout.  I think its because he realized what I realized: the mathematics of the game create a problem.  The Patriots are up by four and Brady is about to take a knee and take a safety.  That will make the score 28 to 26, and they will have to free kick with about 20 seconds on the clock.  Seattle could call for a free catch, they'd have the ball somewhere in the middle of the field, with a timeout, and they would only need maybe thirty or forty yards to get to extreme field goal range.  A field goal would then make it 29 to 28 and Seattle could win on a long range field goal.

I think Brady goes to the sidelines and tells Belichick we need to try to draw them offsides so we can get out of the endzone, which they then proceed to do.  Seattle I think thought their only way to win was to induce a fumble, which made them easy to draw.  If they had just stood there and chased Brady around (he would have probably scrambled in the end zone to burn time) they could have gotten the safety and the ball with maybe 15 seconds and a field goal to win which would have been a long shot, but not ludicrously so.

Of course then they start throwing punches and the game really over.  But I believe Seattle didn't think that through to the end, and gave up their last chance to win.

I think this is all logical...and probably exactly what they were thinking.    ...Also known as "over-thinking".

They let thoughts of failure of one option (the run) talk them into another option (the pass).   The problem is, they didn't consider the failure of option 2 in their fear of the failure of option 1.   

At a certain point, you just gotta let your players do what they do best.   If that's not good enough...you lose.   Don't get cute and get away from what you do best.   So if Lynch can't get in with 2 tries from the half yard line....well then the Pats deserve to win.    You certainly don't go home being haunted about it the rest of your life the way they will now.

The one guy who must be loving all this is Lockette.  He's getting off scott free.    We saw how the Seattle receivers were being dominated throughout the game....they aren't exactly elite.    Watch how he runs that route.   Kinda timid.  No aggression at all.   I question whether Wilson was "leading" him or if he was just not running all out.   You can certainly see the difference when you watch Butler coming.   Butler is coming so much harder that he LITERALLY knocks Lockette off his route.   I used to watch Michael Irvin run that route and that wouldn't happen to him.   It's about body positioning.

And Lockette didn't even attempt a fake to an outside route to give Butler something else to think about.  That might have made all the difference.   Any kind of fake would work very effectively in that do-or-die situation.

I put Wilson pretty far down the "blame list".    And Butler certainly deserves more credit for a great play than the others deserve blame.   Sometimes a player makes a great play....there isn't always a "mistake" by the other player.

[Waffles]

Oh god, guys, you changed the topic to something Arcana likes, we're going to drown in text now.

[Arcana]

I think this is all logical...and probably exactly what they were thinking.    ...Also known as "over-thinking".

I read an article after I posted that in which it was said that another factor was that Pete Carroll honestly believed Belichick was going to call timeout after they got to the goal line, to preserve time for the Patriots to do something if Seattle scored.  Its something he's known to generally be very good at - clock management.  Weirdly, this time Belichick decided not to call his timeout, which meant that Seattle now had to either call its last timeout, run a running play that could have burned up almost all the time they had left if they did not score, or call a quick pass that would have either scored or stopped the clock, and Carroll and his coaches had only about ten seconds to make up their mind.  They opted for the quick pass which he believed would have bought them some time.

Also, Belichick apparently thought there was no way Carroll wasn't going to try to run it in, so even when Seattle lined up with wideouts Belichick kept his goal line package in the game assuming it was a fake.  That major mismatch was just too tempting for Carroll to pass up, so he went with the pass rather than changing his mind and switching to a safer run.

So actually, it was a case of both coaches outsmarting themselves, and the Patriots getting lucky on a great defensive play.

[Arcana]

Oh god, guys, you changed the topic to something Arcana likes, we're going to drown in text now.

https://images.weserv.nl/?url=larc.unt.edu%2Fian%2Fart%2Fascii%2Fshader%2Fhires%2FASCII-ukiyowaves2048-gray.png

[Dareon Kale]

If you are going to call a pass in the situation, it needs to be a short out to the front pylon or a fade to the back corner of the end zone. The odds of anyone but your guy catching the ball with those options is dramatically smaller. Then the worse cast is an incomplete and two attempts with the best short yardage back currently playing.

[Excidia]

I raise the question, why didn't they give Marshawn Lynch the ball?

Because he was only there so he won't get fined.

[Minotaur]

I disagree the contact was "way before" the ball arrives: in fact I believe the video evidence shows the opposite.  If you watch the video right at 2:20 the ball is basically right there at the receiver: its so close its unclear if the ball touches the receiver's hand or not (the receiver's arm gets hit by the defender and his hand moves to the right of screen, its impossible to tell if he touches it or not from replay).  If it did, that would make the contact automatically legal by definition.  However, I think even if the receiver did not make contact with the ball, the contact was not defensive pass interference because contact was made by a defender playing the ball and was not made through the back of the receiver (contact was shoulder to shoulder as you mention).

You can also see the pass from (approximately) the QBs point of view at that point in the replay, and he's clearly leading the receiver thinking the receiver has space to move through the pass.  If he had thrown slightly right of that line the ball would have been at the numbers of the receiver and at most it would have been a dropped pass.  I think Wilson sees the defender covering the corner, thinks the pick is there, and doesn't realize the defender isn't waiting for the throw but trying to beat the receiver to the goal line almost immediately and just didn't account for him.

Not saying it was a bad pass per se: leading the receiver coming across is the normal thing to do.  But in this specific situation a direct pass to the receiver would have been the better throw.  The kind of throw Brady, or say Aaron Rogers would tend to throw in that situation would have been more of a bullet to the receiver which would not have been intercepted in that situation.  That was more of a Manning (either) throw, or maybe a Romo throw.  Also, if you're running a pick at the goal line the receiver should have stopped at that spot anyway and not continued across the field.  If the play called for the receiver to stop at the spot and for Wilson to throw a bullet immediately I'm pretty sure it would have been a touchdown.  But I don't think that was what was called.  I think the pick was called but the receiver was called to continue the route to give Wilson time to determine if he was going to be open or not.  It was a throw if open, throw away if not call.  Ironically, I think the safe call indirectly ended up causing the interception.

Not sure which video you're talking about, only replay I've seen is too fast to tell because they haven't slowed it down but the contact sure looks early to me as he seemed to be in perfect position to catch it then suddenly he wasn't.

The first head bob is normal: I'm not sure what the explicit rule is, but that happens literally on every play and its never called.  The *second* head bob is questionable, but by then a Seattle lineman is also clearly not just in the neutral zone but actually into the NE line: at 4:55 on the video a Seattle player has (apparently) already made contact with a NE lineman - #63 jumps forward as the Seattle guy is over him, which is basically always called against the defense as inducement.

Center head bobs are one of those things that aren't called unless considered egregious, and officials just don't call it often.  Whether they should call it more often or not, it did not affect the actual Seattle lineman that actually made contact, and if they did call that then, after not calling it pretty much ever, neutral observers would have considered that highly questionable.

Moreover, it also wouldn't have changed much, because at that point the penalty would not have changed anything.  The officials would have moved the ball back a couple inches, and NE and Seattle would have been right back where they started, and I suspect Seattle would have still been drawn offsides, because they really seemed to think their only chance to win was to somehow cause a fumble.  A half the distance to the goal penalty would only matter if NE had any intention of trying to get out of the endzone with a real play.  I doubt they were going to try.  I think they thought the safety was inevitable unless they could get a defensive penalty and were not going to do something dumb that could cause a fumble in the endzone - the only thing that could have sunk NE immediately.

I disagree, watch NE's go-ahead TD, the first head bob is identical to the one that's part of the snap on that play, it's a deliberate attempt to draw them offside with a quick head bob rather than the slower one which is a normal part of pre snap routine. TBF, a safety probably would have been OK for NE at that point, I'd have half expected Brady to run around a bit taking time off the clock then concede the safety.