I feel a little sorry for NCSOFT. They are like some first time author who writes a critically acclaimed and wildly popular novel and then the pressure is on them to do it again, and again, and again.
Before CoH was ever released, way back when NCSOFT first came out with Lineage, that game blew up big time. I don't know if it was the first successful MMO in Korea but it made the company.
Then the company decided to go to full 3D unlike the Diablo style of Lineage for Lineage II, which is actually a prequel. The stock price shot up so much leading up to it's release it was the only time NCSOFT split their stock, three for one, as it was in the 250,000+ a share range. Overall sales nearly doubled between 2003 and 2004 (yes, CoH came out in 2004 but was less than 13% of sales).
Then Guild Wars came out in 2005, did well. Overall sales up 21%.
Then Auto Assault came out in 2006, didn't do well. Overall sales up 10%.
Then Tabula Rasa came out in 2007, didn't do well. At all. Overall sales down 3%. Oops.
2008. Late October 2008. If you had a time machine and wanted to take over the company, that was the time to do it. The stock price closed at a post split low on Oct 27th, 2008 of 24,400 a share. That was below book value, the shareholder's value of a company's assets. Stock quickly rallied after that partially due to reports on Aion's successful beta and buzz generated by it. On Nov 24th, 2008 the stock closed at 41,900. On the 25th Aion went live. By the end of the year the stock was at 52,600. On Aion's first anniversary it was at 151,500.
NCSOFT started big with Lineage. Expanded overseas all over Asia. Invested in several studios in the US. Hit it big with Lineage II. Then hit it really big with Aion. They could do no wrong with their AAA properties.
Overall sales in 2008 was up only 5%, but mostly due to only a month of Aion sales.
In 2009 sales was up 83%, profits up 623%. It was Lineage II's success all over again. The sky was the limit for the stock. Aion brought in sales that were almost as large as Lineage and Lineage II combined in 2009 (89%).
And then ... nothing. For nearly four years. No new MMOs. Lots of talk about B&S and GW2 but nothing to release. It really didn't matter in 2009, they were riding high on Aion's first year.
But sales in 2010 were up only 2%, profits down 6%. No new MMOs.
Sales in 2011 were down 7%, profits down 18%. No new MMOs. And that's when the stock price started to fall. Oct 19th, 2011 the stock closed at it's all time high of 380,500. Almost 3 years after it closed at it's post split low of 24,400.
In 2012 profits kept declining quarter after quarter. And the stock's momentum went from everyone on the party train to outer space to fighting for lifeboats on the Titanic.
And when B&S didn't pull an Aion or Lineage II in terms of sales in the 3Q 2012 numbers. Boom. GW2 didn't matter as much because it's not being played down at the local PC cafe. It's not on their weekly charts. It doesn't matter to Korean investors. What mattered to them was Aion and Lineage II sales taking a dive in 2012 while B&S didn't even pick up the slack to break even.
But still 2012 sales were up 24%, profits by 31%.
Maybe NCSOFT's best days are behind them. They had three big successes in Korea and Asia. But as long as their Asian business is still going strong. And if Wildstar is successful or not, they have at least three or four more AAA MMO titles under development in the upcoming years. As long as they remain profitable as they diversify into Mobile gaming; if GW2 can have the same kind of success in Asia as GW1 had; they aren't going anywhere any time soon.