NCSoft Stockwatch

[General Idiot]

What are those percentages there?

[FatherXmas]

What are those percentages there?

The percentage of income from Korea in Aion Vs overall.  Just showing that the bulk of the game's income is still "local".

The 4Q of 2012, Aion had world wide income of 25,057 million KrW, 15,688 million KrW from Korea (62.6%).

In 4Q of 2010, Aion had world wide income of 65,124 million KrW, 48,333 million KrW from Korea (74.2%).

So in two years Aion saw a world wide drop of income in 4Q of 61.5% and 67.5% just in Korea.  Quite the nosedive.  Korea's percentage drop is higher but that's likely due to the fact B&S only seemed to pull players from other games and B&S was only available in Korea.

[DarkCurrent]

Who wants to start a pool on when the shutters go up for Aion?

Let's see, when's the next American holiday?  Ah, there it is.  Memorial Day.  Monday, 5/27.  So Friday 5/24 would fit the NCSoft motif.

[EDIT: Removed politically- and racially-charged commentary ~Agge]

[Lucretia MacEvil]

They chose poorly

Makes me think of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.

I wonder how long it will take NCsucks to wither and shrivel and die.

[Aggelakis]

Who wants to start a pool on when the shutters go up for Aion?

Aion is still, comparatively, raking in the dough. Just not as much as it used to.



Remember to keep politics and race out of this.

[Ziggy1890]

Aion is still, comparatively, raking in the dough. Just not as much as it used to.



Remember to keep politics and race out of this.

Same could have been said about COH

[Aggelakis]

Same could have been said about COH

CoH never raked in the dough, let's be honest. Aion was a beastly huge MMO - it's still rather more successful than most MMOs.

[UruzSix]

Aion is still, comparatively, raking in the dough. Just not as much as it used to.

True, but I can't say its a good sign when they downsize the community manager.

[Victoria Victrix]

Realistically speaking, if I were looking at NCSoft from the perspective of an investor, I would see a company that is past its prime, and is going down, fast or slow, no way to tell.  They have shuttered games without having replacements for them; shuttering at least two shortly after hatching.  They managed to create a wave of negative press that persists months later far out of proportion to the shuttering of both Tabula Rasa and CoX.  As my father in law used to say of the Army, "It only takes one 'oh shit' to wipe out all of your 'attaboys'" and they've had a page full of "oh shits," from the initial way they handled the shutdown, to the way they treated the players, many of whom still have not gotten their refunds, to the final dull thud of the last day.  In fact, at this point, they have a huge deficit of "attaboys" and they keep pulling "oh shits."   There is the delay in getting their game into China; there is the delay in finishing Wildstar which is looking a lot more like a comedy clone of Borderlands than an MMORPG.  There are customer complaints galore in GW2; NCSoft announced an expansion of GW2 which was promptly denied by AreaNet which is another huge "oh shit."  And NCSoft has literally nothing cooking for after Wildstar launches.

This is a company in trouble.  It has a fat cushion to carry them for a while, but it won't carry them forever.  It has a HUGE customer problem it refuses to acknowledge.  It has an even bigger market perception problem it refuses to acknowledge.   In fact, it managed to trigger a market-wide tremor that has got the customers of other games taking a hard look at their games and companies and asking themselves how much longer--or even IF--they want to keep themselves invested in those games.   Only time will tell if gamer-goldfish-brains reset themselves and they go back to business-as-usual--or if gamers are going to start to seriously question the entire marketplace and start making demands.  If the latter, well, OTHER companies will know where to place the blame.  And so will the customers.  We already know the kind of arrogance NCSoft uses to respond to customer revolt.  That arrogance to demand might well be the dagger in the heart of the company, which will be hoovered up and absorbed into Nexon.

Sadly, Taek Jin Kim will sit back under his golden parachute and watch his baseball team.

[Mister Bison]

Realistically speaking, if I were looking at NCSoft from the perspective of an investor, I would see a company that is past its prime, and is going down, fast or slow, no way to tell.  They have shuttered games without having replacements for them; shuttering at least two shortly after hatching.  They managed to create a wave of negative press that persists months later far out of proportion to the shuttering of both Tabula Rasa and CoX.  As my father in law used to say of the Army, "It only takes one 'oh pancake' to wipe out all of your 'attaboys'" and they've had a page full of "oh shits," from the initial way they handled the shutdown, to the way they treated the players, many of whom still have not gotten their refunds, to the final dull thud of the last day.  In fact, at this point, they have a huge deficit of "attaboys" and they keep pulling "oh shits."   There is the delay in getting their game into China; there is the delay in finishing Wildstar which is looking a lot more like a comedy clone of Borderlands than an MMORPG.  There are customer complaints galore in GW2; NCSoft announced an expansion of GW2 which was promptly denied by AreaNet which is another huge "oh pancake."  And NCSoft has literally nothing cooking for after Wildstar launches.

This is a company in trouble.  It has a fat cushion to carry them for a while, but it won't carry them forever.  It has a HUGE customer problem it refuses to acknowledge.  It has an even bigger market perception problem it refuses to acknowledge.   In fact, it managed to trigger a market-wide tremor that has got the customers of other games taking a hard look at their games and companies and asking themselves how much longer--or even IF--they want to keep themselves invested in those games.   Only time will tell if gamer-goldfish-brains reset themselves and they go back to business-as-usual--or if gamers are going to start to seriously question the entire marketplace and start making demands.  If the latter, well, OTHER companies will know where to place the blame.  And so will the customers.  We already know the kind of arrogance NCSoft uses to respond to customer revolt.  That arrogance to demand might well be the dagger in the heart of the company, which will be hoovered up and absorbed into Nexon.

Sadly, Taek Jin Kim will sit back under his golden parachute and watch his baseball team.

You gave me a new definition of "assassin words". Thank you.

[JaguarX]

Realistically speaking, if I were looking at NCSoft from the perspective of an investor, I would see a company that is past its prime, and is going down, fast or slow, no way to tell.  They have shuttered games without having replacements for them; shuttering at least two shortly after hatching.  They managed to create a wave of negative press that persists months later far out of proportion to the shuttering of both Tabula Rasa and CoX.  As my father in law used to say of the Army, "It only takes one 'oh pancake' to wipe out all of your 'attaboys'" and they've had a page full of "oh shits," from the initial way they handled the shutdown, to the way they treated the players, many of whom still have not gotten their refunds, to the final dull thud of the last day.  In fact, at this point, they have a huge deficit of "attaboys" and they keep pulling "oh shits."   There is the delay in getting their game into China; there is the delay in finishing Wildstar which is looking a lot more like a comedy clone of Borderlands than an MMORPG.  There are customer complaints galore in GW2; NCSoft announced an expansion of GW2 which was promptly denied by AreaNet which is another huge "oh pancake."  And NCSoft has literally nothing cooking for after Wildstar launches.

This is a company in trouble.  It has a fat cushion to carry them for a while, but it won't carry them forever.  It has a HUGE customer problem it refuses to acknowledge.  It has an even bigger market perception problem it refuses to acknowledge.   In fact, it managed to trigger a market-wide tremor that has got the customers of other games taking a hard look at their games and companies and asking themselves how much longer--or even IF--they want to keep themselves invested in those games.   Only time will tell if gamer-goldfish-brains reset themselves and they go back to business-as-usual--or if gamers are going to start to seriously question the entire marketplace and start making demands.  If the latter, well, OTHER companies will know where to place the blame.  And so will the customers.  We already know the kind of arrogance NCSoft uses to respond to customer revolt.  That arrogance to demand might well be the dagger in the heart of the company, which will be hoovered up and absorbed into Nexon.

Sadly, Taek Jin Kim will sit back under his golden parachute and watch his baseball team.

One day I'll have a golden parachute too. :p

[malonkey1]

One day I'll have a golden parachute too. :p

With...Blackjack! And Hookers! In fact, forget the parachute!

[FatherXmas]

I feel a little sorry for NCSOFT.  They are like some first time author who writes a critically acclaimed and wildly popular novel and then the pressure is on them to do it again, and again, and again.

Before CoH was ever released, way back when NCSOFT first came out with Lineage, that game blew up big time.  I don't know if it was the first successful MMO in Korea but it made the company.

Then the company decided to go to full 3D unlike the Diablo style of Lineage for Lineage II, which is actually a prequel.  The stock price shot up so much leading up to it's release it was the only time NCSOFT split their stock, three for one, as it was in the 250,000+ a share range.  Overall sales nearly doubled between 2003 and 2004 (yes, CoH came out in 2004 but was less than 13% of sales).

Then Guild Wars came out in 2005, did well.  Overall sales up 21%.

Then Auto Assault came out in 2006, didn't do well.  Overall sales up 10%.

Then Tabula Rasa came out in 2007, didn't do well.  At all.  Overall sales down 3%.  Oops. 

2008.  Late October 2008.  If you had a time machine and wanted to take over the company, that was the time to do it.  The stock price closed at a post split low on Oct 27th, 2008 of 24,400 a share.  That was below book value, the shareholder's value of a company's assets.  Stock quickly rallied after that partially due to reports on Aion's successful beta and buzz generated by it.  On Nov 24th, 2008 the stock closed at 41,900.  On the 25th Aion went live.  By the end of the year the stock was at 52,600.  On Aion's first anniversary it was at 151,500.

NCSOFT started big with Lineage.  Expanded overseas all over Asia.  Invested in several studios in the US.  Hit it big with Lineage II.  Then hit it really big with Aion.  They could do no wrong with their AAA properties.

Overall sales in 2008 was up only 5%, but mostly due to only a month of Aion sales. 

In 2009 sales was up 83%, profits up 623%.  It was Lineage II's success all over again.  The sky was the limit for the stock.  Aion brought in sales that were almost as large as Lineage and Lineage II combined in 2009 (89%).

And then ... nothing.  For nearly four years.  No new MMOs.  Lots of talk about B&S and GW2 but nothing to release.  It really didn't matter in 2009, they were riding high on Aion's first year.

But sales in 2010 were up only 2%, profits down 6%.  No new MMOs.

Sales in 2011 were down 7%, profits down 18%.  No new MMOs.  And that's when the stock price started to fall.  Oct 19th, 2011 the stock closed at it's all time high of 380,500.  Almost 3 years after it closed at it's post split low of 24,400.

In 2012 profits kept declining quarter after quarter.  And the stock's momentum went from everyone on the party train to outer space to fighting for lifeboats on the Titanic.

And when B&S didn't pull an Aion or Lineage II in terms of sales in the 3Q 2012 numbers.  Boom.  GW2 didn't matter as much because it's not being played down at the local PC cafe.  It's not on their weekly charts.  It doesn't matter to Korean investors.  What mattered to them was Aion and Lineage II sales taking a dive in 2012 while B&S didn't even pick up the slack to break even.

But still 2012 sales were up 24%, profits by 31%.

Maybe NCSOFT's best days are behind them.  They had three big successes in Korea and Asia.  But as long as their Asian business is still going strong.  And if Wildstar is successful or not, they have at least three or four more AAA MMO titles under development in the upcoming years.  As long as they remain profitable as they diversify into Mobile gaming; if GW2 can have the same kind of success in Asia as GW1 had; they aren't going anywhere any time soon.

[Illusionss]

It does not matter how muuch money Aion rakes in: if NCS wants to shut the game, boomshakalaka! Its going down.

Money does not matter. Customers dont matter, public perception matters not. Whether or not this makes sense to the average person does not matter. If they want to "realign more focus," then by gum they are gonna do it and devil take the hindenmost.

That's how they roll.

[Quinch]

That's how they roll.

Downhill. And by the looks of it, they're gathering no moss either.

[Aggelakis]

It does not matter how muuch money Aion rakes in: if NCS wants to shut the game, boomshakalaka! Its going down.

Money does not matter. .....

On the contrary, money matters more than anything. They are a business.

[JaguarX]

On the contrary, money matters more than anything. They are a business.

Yup.

It's that invisible (to the customer and in some cases the workers) money threshold line that can be a problem. If they set the threshold at Aion better bring in xx amount of millions or else, then if it dont reach that threshold whether a bit too high or low, then they may rid of it like a few people I know get rid of spare change.

[eabrace]

they may rid of it like a few people I know get rid of spare change.

If only NCsoft practiced "take a penny, leave a penny".

[JaguarX]

If only NCsoft practiced "take a penny, leave a penny".

If only...

[FatherXmas]

It does not matter how muuch money Aion rakes in: if NCS wants to shut the game, boomshakalaka! Its going down.

Money does not matter. Customers dont matter, public perception matters not. Whether or not this makes sense to the average person does not matter. If they want to "realign more focus," then by gum they are gonna do it and devil take the hindenmost.

That's how they roll.

Wrong.  Aion, in it's depressed state, had nearly as much sales in 4Q 2012 than CoH had in it's last two years.  Also in Korea Aion is still the number 4 MMORPG in Korea with Lineage being 1 and B&S being 2 (ArcheAge is 3).

It'll be news when NCSOFT shuts down entirely any of their big three Korean grown titles.