NCSoft Stockwatch

[damo2113]

Must suck for businesses trying to work abroad. No one can by their goods and services! Im sure there is a way around it for those businesses, there would have to be.

[FatherXmas]

The citizen code is so age can be verified since they passed a law that kicks 18 and under off all online games, including consoles,  from midnight to 8am.  And I think the current government is looking to expand it to 21 and under starting at 10pm.  And they were looking to tax online game companies to fund internet addiction centers. 

"Think of the children" works for politicians world over I guess.

[JaguarX]

The citizen code is so age can be verified since they passed a law that kicks 18 and under off all online games, including consoles,  from midnight to 8am.  And I think the current government is looking to expand it to 21 and under starting at 10pm.  And they were looking to tax online game companies to fund internet addiction centers. 

"Think of the children" works for politicians world over I guess.

hey politicians are like soap operas. different language but same plot.

[FatherXmas]

hey politicians are like soap operas. different language but same plot.

But the Spanish ones have so much more cleavage.

[JaguarX]

But the Spanish ones have so much more cleavage.

indeed

[healix]

'Cleavage'...doesn't that mean one of the many phrases coined by June Cleaver"

"Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Beaver last night..."

 
  

[FatherXmas]

3rd quarter numbers are up ... FINALLY!

Short version, down, down, down.  Sales down quarter over quarter and year over year, same with profits.

All titles had lower sales except B&S which had good numbers due to a major update, if I followed Google Translate, was woefully late enough that the devs publicly apologized.

Lineage  - down 26.5% QoQ but up 62.7% YoY
Lineage 2 - down 8.7% QoQ, down 1.8% YoY
Aion - down 2.8% QoQ, down 16.1% YoY
B&S - up 43.5% QoQ, down 37.8% YoY
GW2 - down 15.3% QoQ, down 46.6% YoY
Other - up 26.0% QoQ, up 67.6% YoY
Royalties - down 24.4% QoQ, down 34.0% YoY

Overall sales, down 11.6% QoQ, down 6.8% YoY

They blame the drop in royalties to Lineage in Taiwan and Aion in China.  Also "Other" (I assume mainly their new mobile games) had higher sales than Lineage 2.

That's one half of the equation, the other half, expenses went up.  Culprits include higher royalties to the baseball league, more marketing for Wildstar, costs associated to the new building being finished and relocating to it.

Expenses up 7.1% QoQ, but down 4.4% YoY.

Which combine leads to profits down 23.1% QoQ and down 44.2% YoY.

So since the last report the stock climbed back above 200,000 KrW.  As of this moment the stock price is meandering around 208,500 which is where it closed yesterday.  No real big moves either way yet.

As for company news, the last closed but non-DB wipe closed beta is going on in China with the open beta soon to follow.  They have a Korean female idol group heavily promoting the game in China.  However it looks that the game will be F2P with a F2P style cash shop which I assume they are use to in China.

[DarkCurrent]

You mean their lemonade stand business plan is failing?   

[JanessaVR]

Well, excellent news, FatherXmas.  Thanks for keeping us up to date.  A plague on their house.  I'll sleep well with visions of their sweet, sweet suffering...

[JaguarX]

3rd quarter numbers are up ... FINALLY!

Short version, down, down, down.  Sales down quarter over quarter and year over year, same with profits.

All titles had lower sales except B&S which had good numbers due to a major update, if I followed Google Translate, was woefully late enough that the devs publicly apologized.

Lineage  - down 26.5% QoQ but up 62.7% YoY
Lineage 2 - down 8.7% QoQ, down 1.8% YoY
Aion - down 2.8% QoQ, down 16.1% YoY
B&S - up 43.5% QoQ, down 37.8% YoY
GW2 - down 15.3% QoQ, down 46.6% YoY
Other - up 26.0% QoQ, up 67.6% YoY
Royalties - down 24.4% QoQ, down 34.0% YoY

Overall sales, down 11.6% QoQ, down 6.8% YoY

They blame the drop in royalties to Lineage in Taiwan and Aion in China.  Also "Other" (I assume mainly their new mobile games) had higher sales than Lineage 2.

That's one half of the equation, the other half, expenses went up.  Culprits include higher royalties to the baseball league, more marketing for Wildstar, costs associated to the new building being finished and relocating to it.

Expenses up 7.1% QoQ, but down 4.4% YoY.

Which combine leads to profits down 23.1% QoQ and down 44.2% YoY.

So since the last report the stock climbed back above 200,000 KrW.  As of this moment the stock price is meandering around 208,500 which is where it closed yesterday.  No real big moves either way yet.

As for company news, the last closed but non-DB wipe closed beta is going on in China with the open beta soon to follow.  They have a Korean female idol group heavily promoting the game in China.  However it looks that the game will be F2P with a F2P style cash shop which I assume they are use to in China.

yeah things are down. It was bound to happen. Not the first time not the last time. Things been down from time to  time before with COX alive and probably will be down from time to time after COX.

[healix]

[Randomvector]

just 4-5 more years of this and maybe they will have to sell our game!

Next year in Paragon!

[JanessaVR]

just 4-5 more years of this and maybe they will have to sell our game!

Next year in Paragon!

No, they never will.  The stars will fade and the universe will die of heat death before they ever consider loosing it from their bony grasp.  That's why SCoRE is so important - we will never, ever get the game back except by reverse engineering and community servers.  Count on it.  There is no Option B here.  There are no circumstances under which NCSoft will ever sell CoH.  Because they're evil and uncaring - end of story.

[JaguarX]

possible, but thye probably just simply shrink their expendures first. Only way they probably will sell if they do something stupid like take out a bunch of loans that involve a lot more than the cash they have and income declare bankruptcy and lot of the stuff is disolved. Remember GM had worse and yet Pntiac Hummer, Oldsmobile and etc no longer made but still GM property that if they would have sold it probably would have held off bankruptcy for about a day or two except now they just lost assests.

And there probably are not many people lining up with premium money that is itching to buy an 8 year old defunct game that need a major engine over haul, and hope to make some sort of money from it that during it's time barely made 2 million a quarter in the end and hit peak about 7 years ago and sldie ever since. Then the small companies that probably would do it probably dont have that type of cheddar, the know how, and the inside to get it done. especially in bankrupt preceedings where it isnt like normal people going broke. They take everything and you go sell off stuff at public auction. Many times it's invite only meaning that even if COX end up being sold, it probably will be presented to Asian game makers of the area and a few american big dogs.  Most american big dogs if they wanted NCSOFT and it's stuff they probably would have done it by now in one way or another.  So that most,y leave the asian market hoping that one of them buys a game that didnt even do well at all in that market. Some may just buy it for the name but it's probably a best bet that if that happens, it would be maybe COX in name only if even that. Maybe a mecha online game or something. Seen some pretty bad ass mecha games in my times korea that didnt/dont even exist in the states. Either way the worse possible thing that probably could happen to COX IP is that it sinks with the ship, then things would be even slimmer of it coming back than if NCSOFT is alive. Best thing is for them to do well, then they wont need to hold on to COX IP for a rainy day. Or do well so they make more games and eventually do some house cleaning and probably sell at very good deal. Because even with bankruptcy, as much as many wish for it, doesnt mean they immediately sell everything and anything like normal people do. Normal people go broke, they sell the house and downsize in many cases, the car, and etc. D. Trump declare bankrupcy about every ten years and barely sell a toe nail to make ends meet.

It's like a credit wipe by american standards. Now being Korean company, many times when a korean company goes down, they do not allow foriegn investors come in and buy stuff or part of the company. Meaning in Korea, COX would more than likely stay in Korea if they did sink (more than likely an internal friendly deal loan that never have to be repaid by Nexon). Kind of like what happened to Kia. They had trouble, GM wanted to buy them, Ford was interested. Got blocked, both of the two biggest world giant inthe car industry, and a friendly deal with Hyundai to buy them out for a lot less than what GM and Ford was each offering.  As long as NCSOFT is alive, there is a chance that it can come back to the states. If NCSOFT dies, then might as well forget it coming back. Especially now with the three games coming, the reverse engineer thing. Quite frankly it would be financial suicide to even bring COX back at this point under a big name company. Many people of ex-coxer fame said they dont trust big corporations anymore and thus will bolt as soon as CoT and the other games come out, Then some people that moved on, then some that probably will leave at the slightest change to COX, and with the reverse engineer thing it wouldnt even be worth it to be honest as there is even less of a player base for NCSOFT COX than it was even in it's lowest last days. 

Like JanessaVR said, the reverse engineering is probably the best bet for getting COX back.

[srmalloy]

Apparently NCSoft's financial issues are a big enough deal to be reported on Massively.

[FatherXmas]

It's a matter of putting things in context.  Last 3rd quarter in 2012 they had income for one month of box sales from GW2.

Year over year costs have actually declined.  While old timey Lineage, the WoW of Korea, surged to all time highs last 2nd quarter.

No next quarter, 4Q 2013, if you don't look at context will appear disastrous.  Without a new MMO in the west driving box sales, due to WildStar being delayed, the huge sales influx that GW2 had last year simply won't be there.  Conservatively I expect a 90-95,000 million KrW reduction in sales for GW2 with little to make up for it.  Even if B&S is somewhat successful in China it's still not out yet there beyond beta with 1/2 the quarter gone.  And seeing how Aion sales are off in China it makes me wonder if B&S there will do to Aion as it appeared B&S did to Aion in Korea, pull Aion players into B&S leading to very limited change to overall royalty income from China.  GW2's release is also delayed in China.

So if you think the press thinks it looks bad this quarter, wait until Feb 2014, it'll look as if it is the end times.

[Illusionss]

*snerk*

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, I say.

I am frankly delighted that they are already ticking off GW2 fans by not releasing new content for that game. Way to go! Everyone's like "GW2 needs this, GW2 needs that." Newsflash, people: NCSOFT DONT CARE. They just quite simply do not care! They do not care about GW2 or any game in their stable, or their customers, get used to the idea.

[microc]

anyone read this??
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/game-534492-carbine-people.html
taken a long time and almost 50 million for wildstar and it still not ready.

[damo2113]

Hey guys. Any of you know how to download the conference call for the earnings report?

For the life of me i cant seem to get that damn thing to either download or stream.

Cheers

Im also suprised that the stock prices havnt tumbled yet. We had a worse result than last quarter, and the response to that release was pretty immediate.

Any ideas why investors arnt selling up in anticipation for the likely poor report coming in Feb?

[JaguarX]

Hey guys. Any of you know how to download the conference call for the earnings report?

For the life of me i cant seem to get that damn thing to either download or stream.

Cheers

Im also suprised that the stock prices havnt tumbled yet. We had a worse result than last quarter, and the response to that release was pretty immediate.

Any ideas why investors arnt selling up in anticipation for the likely poor report coming in Feb?

Major professional investors don't panic and sell as soon as they lose a few bucks. Many actually buy more when the price drops. It's about long term. Many of those guys been in it since 2009 and prior. And some of those people are actually still way ahead from when they first started. Many pay attention to business news, trends, past trends, future projections, other professionals, and stuff before making a decision. Right now, it's in "hold" status. Long term is talking about 5-10 years and beyond.   

Then you have some people in it for the short term. Flippers. They probably already sold before they lost money while they are still on top. These guys watch stocks by the minutes live feed usually, and buy and sell with the swings by the hour.

Then you have your amateurs, they sell when they lose money panic and sell and end up losing money. then try to rebuy when the price go up and end up further in the hole.

Right now for some trying to get in, many people wait for the prices to get low then they buy anticipating an upswing in a few quarters.

All stock charts look like roller coaster to experienced stock buyer it's normality. To a newbie, panic sets in and they end up prematurely selling.

Apple stocks also recently dropped a couple of quarters ago even though the new iphone came out and sold like hot cakes.. I think they went up since then. Now those people that got scared and sold, lost out of potential gains. The old investors didn't bother or bought more.

Walmart had a few bad quarters this year too. Facebook (didn't even stay at it's projected opening price for even a day when it went public but still worth billions and still making more money than it was prior to it going public), ATT, GM even though they had record sells), Microsoft, it happen. Experienced stocker expect the less experienced to sell and drive the price down a bit so they can buy.


Remember it's like COH market. Buy low sell high.


When a company is doing truly bad, it usually can be seen from miles away if one know what to look for, which is another skill a lot of amateur stockers don't know how to spot. Usually by then, a straight nose dive, not the usual up and downs, nose dives are spotted. That is sure sign that people are hopping ship and usually there are also a lot of news and red flags even in business publications long before that that says, "Heads up this company is going down."

A friend of mine said it was expected with the drop because NCSOFT isn't really realizing nay games, and with the new consoles coming out and new games getting it in for Christmas season, sales will be lower next quarter report.


Remember stock prices alone are not the heart beat of how well a company is doing. There are many factors to get a good pulse. Stock prices is more like trying to judge a pulse by pressing on the gallbladder.

Plus majority of the stockholders probably never played COX and some probably never heard of it beyond in a financial report. Even here, majority us, actual players, probably don't or never had ncsoft stock even when COX was alive. Thus their decision probably have nothing to do with the plight of COX. Or what they say. But I'm trying to do my part in changing that but don't have much to present that would reach them on their level and mindset. Like I said the heart warming stuff, that is cool, but these stock holders are mostly business and wouldn't give their own mother $10 if it look like bad investment. Not to mention the language barrier of those that control majority of the stuff and power. 

Nexon in 2012 bought 685 million shares worth of NCSOFT stock. That only put them at a little over 14%, the largest single entity owner. Kim owns about 10%, 9% are treasury shares, rest are others. For a sense of how large NCSOFT is.