NCSoft Stockwatch

[Illusionss]

It has been almost a year since our game closed, and NCSoft's stock has for the most part headed down and down and down. This is not really about the concept of their company not doing well because they hurt us in particular, although that is delicious icing on the cake. This is about the idea that they cannot run a company to save their lives.

This is no flash in the pan, their stock has been trending down for almost a year now.

On top of that, they are plainly telling us that they have learned nothing from the CoX debacle. They still don't care about their customers, nor do they care about their stable of games. They are not really interested in even keeping the customers they have, they want to release the New Shiny, skim those profits then move on. Are they alienating people with this strategy? Too bad so sad. Its all about the immediate buck and to hell with the future.

Delicious. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

[JanessaVR]

Indeed.  I can't help but want to channel Eric Cartman in this instance - "Yes! Yesss!!  Oh, let me taste your tears, NCSoft!  Mmm, your tears are so yummy and sweet.  Oh, the tears of unfathomable sadness!  My-yummy."   

[Illusionss]

See, me I would be all about the "this thing here cost a million dollars to make. So! let's make this pony trot for just as long as he will trot. Then we put him out to pasture - gently - and concentrate on our other ponies which are still trotting fast. This pony served us well and he deserves respect."

Nope, its all "this pony isn't trotting as fast as he used to. Oh well! I'll go get the bolt-pistol and you wrangle him into the killing chute, ok? And never mind about the pony's loving owners I mean customers, lined up along the corral wall watching with tears in their eyes and their jaws on the ground. To hell with them, they don't matter anyway. We can replace them in a minute. No biggie!"

That is just what they did.

WOW.

[JaguarX]

well actually between the closing of COX and now, about 1 year their stock are actually over all, went up. When COX closed, it was at about 156,000 won a share (Nov 16 2012 closing). Right now it's about 215,000 won a share.

It dipped down in the first few days of Dec 2012 to about 147,000 won a share, then went back up to closed at 165,000 Dec 14 2012. It hit it's lowest within the past year Feb 6 2012 at 128,000 and been over all climbing up since then.

5 year trend
Nov. 20 2008, it's stock closed at 39,000won.  Nov 18th 2013 closed at 215,500. (keep in mind it's about Tuesday 4 am odd 19 Nov. 2013 in Seoul, Korea.)

So overall, their stocks haven't been going down since the closing. Their stocks actually started dropping overall in 2011 about oct 24 2011 from 369,000 won a share to 299,000 by nov 25 2011 and down ever since until recently starting uptick overall after going down to 128,000 in feb 2013. Basically the down turn of their stock prices started before the announcement and while COX was well and alive. The down turn is not because of the closing of COX, although it may or may have not have helped. Overall whether COX was alive or dead seemed to have miniscule effect on the stock prices unless it could also be said that  it caused their down turn too way back in 2011 COX did indeed have a major effect and and they are now recovering from the damage.  But more than likely, the case is that COX didn't have hardly any type of effect and the closing didn't have much effect either. Because even their lowest since COX closed is above their lowest when COX was alive and way prior to the announcement.

If someone recently purchased a substantial amount of stock, in feb 7th, now they would have made a decent sized profit for such a short amount of time.

[damo2113]

Yeh, hate to say it but COH was not a big factor in Ncsofts dip in share price. It was their overall performance the year prior, of which Coh was one of the smaller aspects in that poor performance.

You will note that ever since the record figures of GW2 Box sales last year the selling took a sudden halt and since we have been climbing back.

And from what im seeing on the charts currently, the share prices are testing a key reistance level from the fall of 2012 after the initial freakout over lackluster GW2 numbers.
And currently it looks to be making a break to the up side. Could 250 000 krw be on the tables now?

[damo2113]

Stocks Just shot up again. I see no fundamental reason to think the stocks should be gaining momentum. What do you guys think? Are the markets looking forward and seeing the stocks as oversold?

[JaguarX]

Stocks Just shot up again. I see no fundamental reason to think the stocks should be gaining momentum. What do you guys think? Are the markets looking forward and seeing the stocks as oversold?

probably normal fluctuation.

Stocks go down, many investors sometimes buy (unless the fish hit the shan). The prices go up, some collect their profits others hold.

[damo2113]

Maybe, it just seems very interesting that alot of volatility is occuring after such a average quarterly report. I could expect a hold or a sell off, but a consolidated buy signal suggests something more, if you look at the trend over the past year, ncsoft is experiencing unusual buying over the last month. I suspect a sell off soon to pull the stocks back within its trend line, but if that doesnt occur, then i suspect we wont see one any time soon.

Maybe im just naive, but i think this might be the beginning of a proper recovery going into 2013

[JaguarX]

Maybe, it just seems very interesting that alot of volatility is occuring after such a average quarterly report. I could expect a hold or a sell off, but a consolidated buy signal suggests something more, if you look at the trend over the past year, ncsoft is experiencing unusual buying over the last month. I suspect a sell off soon to pull the stocks back within its trend line, but if that doesnt occur, then i suspect we wont see one any time soon.

Indeed.

Don't worry many corporations have volatility after average and in many cases below average quarterly reports. It's not as unusual as it seems on the surface. Sometimes there are big dips and dismal sales and the stock prices still rise and sometimes stock prices drop even though they had record sales and growth.  While sometimes they can affect each other they don't always go hand in hand. Many times they go in opposite directions.

[damo2113]

Heh, seems as if then the price is practically up to chance Maybe its wishful thinking to think there is a method in the madness

[JaguarX]

Heh, seems as if then the price is practically up to chance Maybe its wishful thinking to think there is a method in the madness

There is a method, but lot of chance too.

There will be the basics out there for the method part  but not too advanced because if everyone knew too much, then lot of wall streeters would be out of a job. :p

[FatherXmas]

The reason is Blade & Soul will be going to open beta in China next week and the company running it there announced they are expanding the number of servers from 19 to 33.  Plus this open beta isn't IP blocked.  If you can read Mandarin/Simplified Chinese then you can join in, the game is F2P and accounts will not be wiped when it goes live.

KDB Daewoo pushed out another doc that says this last CB of B&S also opened the cash shop (since it wasn't going to have an account wipe) so they should see some income from B&S in 4th quarter 2013 as well.  Plus they, KDB, says GW2 in China will also be 1Q 2014 and WildStar in 2Q 2014 in NA and EU.  On top of the B&S cash shop royalties, there is a Lineage cash shop event in December so KDB expect 4Q profits to be higher than this miserable 3Q. 

So all this "good" news means buy, buy, buy.

[malonkey1]

There is a method, but lot of chance too.

There will be the basics out there for the method part  but not too advanced because if everyone knew too much, then lot of wall streeters would be out of a job. :p

Which is why I wish they would teach finance in High School.

[LadyShin]

Coming up on the holidays... And I can only imagine what's going on at NCSoft HQ...

hmm...

[healix]

My faves...

[OzonePrime]

My faves...

Love!

[damo2113]

Soo, apparently the Korean Gov is at it again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/south-korea-considers-law-to-classify-online-gaming-as-a-potentially-antisocial-addiction-8998538.html

This goes in front of the parliment early next month (Feb), and is already causing some panic amongst stock holders.

Thoughts?

[JanessaVR]

My thoughts?  Maybe we could pass the plate around and try to bribe...uh, "lobby," yeah, that's it...some Korean politicians to pass this bill.   

Anything that could hurt NCSoft even a little is a good thing.

[Drauger9]

Anything that could hurt NCSoft even a little is a good thing.

Then what if the EU and America follow suit?

From the Article:

However, gaming companies have argued such a bill would be a death sentence for the industry. In a statement, the Korea Internet and Digital Entertainment Association, which represents game companies said: "The 100,000 people employed in the game industry are not drugmakers."

Though I doubt it'd be a "death sentene". I do think companies like NCSoft would be less willing to take risk on "niche" markets like super heroe MMOs.

So if the South Korea does pass this law. Then maybe companies like NCSoft would be interested in the western markets again. Unless the EU and America decide that video games are a virtual Meth lab. LOL!

I know that this probably wont pass but when I see stories like this. I try to look at the big picture, since gamers here are still considered outside the norm.

Wonder what the StarCraft community thinks about this? And didn't South Korea have a government StarCraft team?

[FatherXmas]

On one hand you can say it's a tax grab disguised as a "for the children" protection program.  The current ruling party wants to include online gaming, internet use in general, with alcohol, drugs and gambling addiction.  This way they can insist that game companies must "contribute" 1% of the earnings toward prevention and treatment clinics.  But they don't want to ban it just as they don't ban alcohol.

They also want to restrict youth's access to online play by both increasing the age restrictions (to 21) and forced offline time (to 10p till 8a) in an effort to "keep the youth excelling in school and college" because it's believed that's how South Korea can flourish and it's the fear of the ruling party that the technological growth of South Korea is coming to an end.  It's become their "comic books cause juvenile delinquency" coupled with "look at all that money".

It's funny that the story called out Nexon via Maplestory because even though Nexon started in South Korea, it's now a Japanese company with it's main office in Tokyo, traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and reports it's earnings in yen.