New efforts!

[MM3squints]

I'm afraid I can't give partial credit for "don't play the lotto because its rigged by a supercomputer."

At least he didn't say Illuminati so there is that.

[Arcana]

I look at it this way:

Spend nothing on lottery tickets: Chance of losing NOTHING is 100%.

Spend [any non-zero amount, let's call it X] on lottery tickets. Chance of losing X is 100% (rounded to the nearest 1-millionth of a percent).

Seems pretty simple what you should do now doesn't it??

Actually, there are other possible outcomes, because there are other prizes besides the jackpot.  The rate of return on a two dollar powerball ticket is, statistically speaking, probably something like (I'm guestimating) twenty five cents or so.  The odds of winning something are about 25 to 1.  The most likely prize is doubling your money.

[Arcana]

At least he didn't say Illuminati so there is that.

He didn't say who loaned them the supercomputer either.

[darkgob]

I'm afraid I can't give partial credit for "don't play the lotto because its rigged by a supercomputer."

One might argue that refusing to accept even partial agreement (regardless of correctness) is the attitude of an ideologue.  One might further argue that all-or-nothing thinking is the product of a severely closed mind.

;)

[chuckv3]

Actually, there are other possible outcomes, because there are other prizes besides the jackpot.  The rate of return on a two dollar powerball ticket is, statistically speaking, probably something like (I'm guestimating) twenty five cents or so.  The odds of winning something are about 25 to 1.  The most likely prize is doubling your money.

True. So even with this, the problem could be restated as such:

When buying 1 or more lottery tickets, you will almost assuredly lose it all, with a slim chance you will make some of it back, and statistically no chance of coming out ahead.

That's close enough for me.

[MM3squints]

True. So even with this, the problem could be restated as such:

When buying 1 or more lottery tickets, you will almost assuredly lose it all, with a slim chance you will make some of it back, and statistically no chance of coming out ahead.

That's close enough for me.

While in most cases where I never play the lotto because of what you say there really isn't a point. Powerball is 2 dollars if you play once each drawing 2x a week, you spent $104 for what is amount to be no action. I ratter take that $104 and go to a table for better action. However, in certain situation (like when the Jackpot can get you $500+ million lump sum)  2 dollars "investment" (using that very loosely) isn't that bad even though there's better odds from getting murdered during a trip to the Grand Canyon (apparently it is 1 in 8,156,000)

http://time.com/4171474/powerball-lottery-more-likely-win/

[Taceus Jiwede]

People say playing the lottery is a waste of money and to an extent it is.  Until you look at your fiances and realize you waste money every single day. Only difference is this time you have a 0.000000000000000000000000001%(Guessing, save the corrections) of wining 1.3 billion dollars. At some point or another some one in here will waste money. 4-5 dollars on Starbucks Coffee. Going out to eat. Buying a pack of cigarettes.  Buying a soda. Buying a bag of weed. Buying a snack. Buying 91 gas instead of 85 gas.

People waste money all the time on far stupider things then the lotto.  Don't spend more then you can afford.  But people waste less then $10 almost on a daily basis. 

[Taceus Jiwede]

While in most cases where I never play the lotto because of what you say there really isn't a point. Powerball is 2 dollars if you play once each drawing 2x a week, you spent $104 for what is amount to be no action. I ratter take that $104 and go to a table for better action. However, in certain situation (like when the Jackpot can get you $500+ million lump sum)  2 dollars "investment" (using that very loosely) isn't that bad even though there's better odds from getting murdered during a trip to the Grand Canyon (apparently it is 1 in 8,156,000)

http://time.com/4171474/powerball-lottery-more-likely-win/

I have always looked at this way.  I exist. And I continue to exist.  That is far less likely then winning the lottery.  Already won the cosmic lottery.  Why not try for this one that has 1.3 billion in it.  Like you I don't buy it unless the winning's are "lolz" high.

You know, make fun of Joshex all you want, he was right about one thing:

This is the same man.  And I kid you not. Who said he was figuring out a way to resurrect Robin Williams.  100% Serious.

[Codewalker]

You know, make fun of Joshex all you want, he was right about one thing:

don't play the lotto

There's a saying I really like, "the lottery is just a tax on people who are bad at math".

Even though I agree that is true, I still play my state lottery regularly. Why?

First, I look at the odds of winning. If I play, the odds are infinitesimal. If I don't, the odds are zero.

Next, I look at the cost of playing. In order to do that, I have to decide how many tickets to buy. To do that I examine the increase in the odds of winning with each ticket bought in a given drawing.

Tickets	Odds	Increase in odds from buying one less ticket
0	0	N/A
1	Cosmically small	Infinity%
2	2*(Cosmically small)	100%
3	3*(Cosmically small)	50%
4	4*(Cosmically small)	33%
5	5*(Cosmically small)	25%

Clearly, the increase in chances of winning is greatest when going from 0 tickets to 1 ticket. After that it's all diminishing returns. As the odds are very low in any event, 1 ticket is the sweet spot for me, no need to waste money on a bunch of extra tickets that won't increase my chances that much. That is also the lowest cost -- low enough that even cumulatively over a year it won't have a significant impact on my finances.

Finally, if I accept that I probably won't win, where does the money that I lose go? Some of it goes into the pockets of other people playing the lottery. Maybe they really need it (and are hopeless at math if they're that bad off and are spending money on the lottery), maybe they don't. But there's a chance that it will go to making someone's wildest dreams come true, as well as a smaller chance they don't screw it up and go bankrupt, but there you have it.

The rest gets skimmed off the top by the state and goes to fund various things. Education gets the majority of the proceeds from lottery I play. That's a good cause, I'm cool with paying an extra dollar in taxes if some of it goes to education.

I play my state lottery despite lower jackpots -- but still more than enough that I'd be set for life if invested well. I do that to increase the odds that more of the money will remain in the local economy. The state's cut goes to local schools rather than somewhere else. It's also a $1 ticket instead of $2. Occasionally if the powerball gets really big, like right now, I might buy one of those. However, it's rare and mostly I stick to the smaller drawing.

I don't expect to win. The odds are insanely against me. I consider it a donation to education and to people who are bad at math, but really lucky. If every once in a while I win a few bucks back and gain a moment of fun from that, so much the better. And though I know I won't win the big jackpot, a minimal level of participation means that I'm not completely out of the running.

TL;DR: I think a better way to state the original quote would be, "don't expect to win the lotto".

[Shibboleth]

And if you are good at math, you spend a few days wondering why you flushed money down the toilet.

Fortunately I am rational and don't worry about why I flushed lottery money down the toilet when I flush money down the toilet every day doing things that bring me enjoyment.

Its something I tried to point out to my co-workers who were amazed that I would ever spend $15 a month on playing an MMO--"Well I could go see a movie for about $10 and you would not have questioned my spending the money on the movie. The movie provided 2.5 hours of entertainment. By contrast I probably put 80 hours into the MMO. I have to think the MMO provided much more entertainment for the money spent. Oh. . .anyone here play golf? Let's talk greens fees...."

[Remaugen]

Somebody eventually wins, you can't win if you don't play. . .

Yeah, the odds are against you winning if you play, but they are absolute you won't win if you don't play at all!

[Arcana]

Fortunately I am rational and don't worry about why I flushed lottery money down the toilet when I flush money down the toilet every day doing things that bring me enjoyment.

Its something I tried to point out to my co-workers who were amazed that I would ever spend $15 a month on playing an MMO--"Well I could go see a movie for about $10 and you would not have questioned my spending the money on the movie. The movie provided 2.5 hours of entertainment. By contrast I probably put 80 hours into the MMO. I have to think the MMO provided much more entertainment for the money spent. Oh. . .anyone here play golf? Let's talk greens fees...."

I used to pay to play City of Heroes, even after it went free to play.  I did not specifically pay my subscription with an expectation of winning the game.  My return on investment was gameplay.  Similarly, if you buy lottery tickets specifically for the fun of participating in a lottery, then by definition you will always get your money's worth.  Actually winning would be an unexpected, if astronomically enormous, bonus.

The expectation of winning is irrational.  But participation itself is not irrational, if rational material return isn't your goal.

[blacksly]

And if you are good at math, you spend a few days wondering why you flushed money down the toilet.

50% of 1.3 billion (probably 1.5 or so by the time it's drawn) is over 600 million.
Odds of winning are about 1 in 300 million.
At $2 per draw, it would be a break-even proposition, if not for the chance of having to split the jackpot with another winner.

Also, a small amount of disposable income which may cost you that week's entertainment fund, depending on how many tickets you buy, versus a life-changing ticket, is not necessarily a no-brainer avoidance situation.

[blacksly]

At least he didn't say Illuminati so there is that.

I was kind of sorry he did NOT mention the Illuminati. It would have made that post even closer to perfection.

[blacksly]

One might argue that refusing to accept even partial agreement (regardless of correctness) is the attitude of an ideologue.  One might further argue that all-or-nothing thinking is the product of a severely closed mind.

;)

A truly open mind should accept even products of closed minds ;)

[Arcana]

50% of 1.3 billion (probably 1.5 or so by the time it's drawn) is over 600 million.
Odds of winning are about 1 in 300 million.
At $2 per draw, it would be a break-even proposition, if not for the chance of having to split the jackpot with another winner.

The odds are about 292 million to one per ticket**.  The pot being over 1.3 billion means there have been way more than 292 million $2 tickets purchased.  There are lots of different ways to buy a powerball ticket including some bonuses, but a very rough guestimate is that the current jackpot implies about one to two billion tickets purchased.  That means the average number combination has been bought about three to six times, and therefore the average actual jackpot per person is going to be about two to four hundred million dollars.  It is, of course, possible for a single person to have the only matching ticket, but its also possible thirty of them do.

If you think about it, the average statistical return on a *winning* $2 ticket cannot exceed about $580 million, no matter how high the jackpot rises.  That's because a per-person jackpot of $584 million would mean every $2 ticket sold would have a statistical return of break-even.  That's of course mathematically impossible for a lottery in which the operators do not put all of the proceeds into the pot.  Essentially, the moment the total number of tickets exceeded about 300 million, while the jackpot continued to grow the statistical expected jackpot value hit a peak and then remained constant, because of the need to divide the pot among duplicate tickets (and once you pass 292 million tickets, there *have* to be duplicates).  And that peak has to be *significantly* lower than $580 million dollars, to cover operational costs, smaller jackpots, and the cut that the operators give back to the participating states.

Also, a small amount of disposable income which may cost you that week's entertainment fund, depending on how many tickets you buy, versus a life-changing ticket, is not necessarily a no-brainer avoidance situation.

True, but you have to realize that there's no *numerical* argument that makes buying lottery tickets a good idea, because in effect the house always wins and the players collectively lose.  Any numerical argument that compares the low cost verses the high potential gain without considering the statistical likelihood of that gain should work equally well to convince you to buy Rapture insurance.  Subjective arguments can make sense, but they don't (or shouldn't) strictly rely on numerical comparisons directly.



** There are 69 "normal" balls numbered 1 through 69 of which 5 are drawn.  There are 69!/5!64! = 11,238,513 different five ball combinations.  There are 26 different powerballs numbered 1 through 26, and there are of course 26 possible ways for that ball to be drawn.  Total number of different powerball draws = 11,238,513 * 26 = 292,201,338.  Therefore the odds against a particular ticket's numbers matching the draw are 292,201,338 to one.

[Kaos Arcanna]

I wonder would which be easier assuming a COX fan DID win the Powerball?

1. To contract Cryptic and say, "Make me a game like City of Heroes that uses the latest version of your engine (so we could have things like being able to grasp objects and fingers instead of mitten hands)".

2. Buy the rights to COX and the disk image from NcSoft and hire Cryptic and say, "Use this to reverse engineer an updatable version of COX."

[Codewalker]

but a very rough guestimate is that the current jackpot implies about one to two billion tickets purchased.

Psst, I think you forgot about the rollover. The jackpot was what, somewhere around 900 million(?) as of the last drawing that nobody won. So subtract that from the total and then divide by a minimum of $2.

[Waffles]

I am in desperate need for several hundred council to smash repeatedly in the face.

Query: Would the NDA allow them to even announce it on these forums, and not an 'official' source if it went through?

[Power Arc X]

I thought  my chances  of winning  the lottery  were 3,720 to 1 not 292,000,000 to 1.