the new project is for a nameless company, or at least one that does not want to be named yet.
So what does the timing tell me? the project started somewhere /around/ the beginning of 2012. I.E. about 1 year before CoH was put on closing notice.
Realizations;
NCSoft knows City of heroes is not marketable to asia. so why would they take the time and resources to develop a sequel in a korean company? simple they wont.
if NCSoft wanted to make a sequel to CoH why would they fire paragon? because paragon was barely able to make additions to the original game, obviously creating a sequel would have been too much for them to handle, they were fired because it could be legally objected by paragon if NCSoft were to seek outside help to develop the sequel rather than resorting to the staff at paragon who were supposed to be in charge of that and had the IP leased to them.
in the business world an IP can only be legally leased to 1 company at a time. I found that out with nintendo, they had a game being developed by a lame duck developer who was doing nothing and squating on the IP, they had thier hands tied and couldn't lease the IP to anyone else till the current lease expired.
Also for many who didn't know this; after some really indepth talks with Aeria games I learned that NCSoft is merely a publisher they have no actual ability to edit/make the games they hire other companies to do that.
yes I'm saying what you think I'm saying; this 'secret project' is actually: CoH 2
I don't know who initiated the contact first, but I'm certain that NCSoft and Cryptic have been talking about creating a CoH 2 for months before we were put on notice, thats right NCSoft is turning to a seasoned developer of MMO's and the creator of CoH inorder to get the sequel made. First they had to discuss all the nitty gritty business formalities which took a few months though the project had been put up on cryptic's page. next they needed to make it official they needed the IP lease back from paragon.
when you take away a lease from a company that subsequently gives them no right to even run the product linked to that lease. in effect Paragon would have been left with nothing to do,
So this is an interesting theory (Sorry for truncating it in my quote) and you clearly put some thought into it, but this is where it falls apart for me. NCSoft is typically a publisher but they can and have owned development studios, including Paragon Studios. Paragon wasn't an independent company they leased the IP to, Paragon Studios was a subsidiary wholly owned by NCSoft and had no "Lease" for the IP since it was NCSofts IP.
Further, NCSoft bought the IP from Cryptic outright so they could "re-invest" in the IP and spent the years after the buy out (November 2007 I believe) building up Paragon Studios into a sizeable development studio, which is why we got things like Going Rogue, power customization, Freedom etc, that was all done by Paragon doing their own development, and up until Paragon got closed down they were working on a whole other project, never named though they had said it wasn't CoH related at some point.
So if NCSoft wanted to make a CoH2, they would have been in a better position to simply give PS a bigger budget and allow them to expand some more and build A CoH2, since they already had a team there that had a ton of experience with the IP, a team that had experience developing the ongoing CoH and were developing an entirely new project and since they owned PS they would have kept entire control of the IP, instead of having to have another company involved and having to share the profits and money of the game with that studio.
Not to mention that if they wanted CoH2 to be made, they'd not want to piss off the entire player base by cancelling CoH, which was still making money and developing new content very actively, long before any kind of CoH 2 was even announced, much less ready to play.
Really Paragon Studios would have been the ideal place to develop CoH2, a development team they fully own, complete control over the property, a development team with experience making the CoH game, a working studio already with many resources in place, and further continuing the development of CoH, keeping that audience interested and paying bills at NCSoft until they could get the audience to switch to the sequel.
I just don't think NCSoft would have gone back to Cryptic to develop a CoH2 when they spent so much money and energy buying the IP to re-invest in it in the first place.