Author Topic: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!  (Read 3628 times)

dwturducken

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Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« on: July 09, 2013, 06:41:33 PM »
http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/07/09/world-of-warcraft-is-definitely-getting-an-in-game-store/

There it is! Proof that WoW is on the verge of going F2P!

[/foilhat]
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Rust

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2013, 07:58:08 PM »
The truth actually is a lot more terrible.

Activision Majority Stakeholder Vivendi wants to squeeze cash from the publisher.

Basically, Vivendi's telecom business model is failing, but Activision (And by extension Blizzard) has four billion dollars in the black. So Vivendi is pushing Activision to literally give them money to prop up their own balance sheet - likely by taking out a five billion dollar loan...of which Activision will be left holding the bag.

I may not be a huge fan of Blizzard any longer, but even I don't want to see them get the Bain Capital Treatment.
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FlyingCarcass

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2013, 09:25:07 PM »
I wouldn't mind it if WoW went free to play with the three tier system many free-to-play MMOs seem to be using (and that CoH used, with subscription, premium, and freebies). Sometimes I consider returning to WoW when I feel the urge to level a character or do some PvP, but paying for a monthly subscription seems silly these days when I could pick up a game or two for the subscription price. Or some hamburgers.

FatherXmas

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2013, 10:45:34 PM »
I may not be a huge fan of Blizzard any longer, but even I don't want to see them get the Bain Capital Treatment.

That's not "the Bain Capital Treatment".  Bain Capital takes poorly run or financially troubled public companies private, does what's necessary to make them profitable and then take them public again.  Or sell them to another company for profit.  And sometimes they get stuck with them like Toys R Us.

Vivendi on the other hand is the majority stock holder in Activision Blizzard (true majority as in over 50% plus 1, not like the 15% ownership of NCSOFT by Nexon) with controlling seats on the board of directors and can do what they want now that the 5 year special veto rights of the "council of three" is over.
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Rust

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2013, 11:08:03 PM »
That's not "the Bain Capital Treatment".  Bain Capital takes poorly run or financially troubled public companies private, does what's necessary to make them profitable and then take them public again.

Uh huh. Accuride, American Pad & Paper, Dade International, GS Industries, and Stage Stores all surely benefitted from Bain using their credit line to pay out huge dividends to themselves, often selling them for huge profits while the seller and the selle get stuck holding the bag.

Explain how what Vivandi is likely doing right now to Activision is any different. "They can do whatever they want" is true, but why ransack a successful business venture to prop up a failing one?
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dwturducken

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2013, 11:31:10 PM »
Well, it is almost 9 years old. Time to shut 'er down.  ;D

*crickets*

Too soon?  ???
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Rust

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2013, 11:46:30 PM »
It would definitely cement WoW place as being the "Ultimate MMO". Unkillable by its competitors, it is only brought low by Corporate Idiocy.
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FatherXmas

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2013, 11:57:59 PM »
Yes, sadly the 1990s was a time of consolidation through leveraging assets.  Same thing happened to the company I worked at in the 1990s.  The founder who was very debt adverse died.  New management came in and immediately leveraged our assets to go on a buying spree of similar companies.  The burden of that debt forced them to eventually sell off there original building from the 60s and led to the company being taken private by a private equity group some 15 years after this mess started so the debt can be finally cleaned up without analysts second guessing every move.

Companies did it because at the time the stock market wanted to see top line growth and acquisition was looked at as growth.  It was the only thing analysts looked at and rewarded.  Large chunks of the cost of acquisitions could be written off, offsetting the debt with "goodwill".  Then accounting rules changed and companies balance sheets went from looking great to terrible overnight, stock prices plummeted and the management responsible got sacked.

In the case of AMPAD, Bain bought them in 92 and took them public again in 95 or 96.  When the company went bankrupt in 2000 Bain still owned a 1/3rd of the company and lost quite a bit of money.  But AMPAD survived bankruptcy and is now owned, after a string of owners to Esselite, a private company who owns a number of office supply companies.

And same is true with the other companies you listed.  Over leveraging for acquisitions in the 90s led to major problems when accounting rules changed which led to their downfall.  But you got to look at the good with the bad.  Success stories with Staples, Dunkin Donuts, Burger King.  Toys R Us would be gone without Bain Capital and KKR buying them in 2005.
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Rust

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2013, 12:02:49 AM »
I understand all that as well as any layman of economy can. What I don't understand is Vivandi's reasoning in this instance. Vivandi - from my research and the article I linked to - is generally phasing out of the Telecom market and into the Multimedia Market. So the move to gut Activision by forcing a dividend payout to prop up their waning telecom section...makes no sense.
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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2013, 12:05:54 AM »
The articles at the various stock sites aren't talking about this, just Vivendi desperately looking for someone to take their telecom business.
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JaguarX

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2013, 12:26:03 AM »
Yes, sadly the 1990s was a time of consolidation through leveraging assets.  Same thing happened to the company I worked at in the 1990s.  The founder who was very debt adverse died.  New management came in and immediately leveraged our assets to go on a buying spree of similar companies.  The burden of that debt forced them to eventually sell off there original building from the 60s and led to the company being taken private by a private equity group some 15 years after this mess started so the debt can be finally cleaned up without analysts second guessing every move.

Companies did it because at the time the stock market wanted to see top line growth and acquisition was looked at as growth.  It was the only thing analysts looked at and rewarded.  Large chunks of the cost of acquisitions could be written off, offsetting the debt with "goodwill".  Then accounting rules changed and companies balance sheets went from looking great to terrible overnight, stock prices plummeted and the management responsible got sacked.

In the case of AMPAD, Bain bought them in 92 and took them public again in 95 or 96.  When the company went bankrupt in 2000 Bain still owned a 1/3rd of the company and lost quite a bit of money.  But AMPAD survived bankruptcy and is now owned, after a string of owners to Esselite, a private company who owns a number of office supply companies.

And same is true with the other companies you listed.  Over leveraging for acquisitions in the 90s led to major problems when accounting rules changed which led to their downfall.  But you got to look at the good with the bad.  Success stories with Staples, Dunkin Donuts, Burger King.  Toys R Us would be gone without Bain Capital and KKR buying them in 2005.

Yeah wasnt Burger King at one point in time not long ago on the brink of being nonexistant? I remember the stories of them not knowing if Staples was going to survive or not. And cops everywhere would have been very unhappy if Dunkin Donuts tanked :p

Rust

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Re: Obligatory Wild Speculation Thread: WoW Store Edition!
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2013, 01:01:07 AM »
The articles at the various stock sites aren't talking about this, just Vivendi desperately looking for someone to take their telecom business.

That may explain it though. "Cook the books" with a quick cash infusion to make the Telecom Business a more attractive acquisition.

Kinda like putting wallpaper over the holes in the wall.
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