NCSoft Stockwatch

[houtex]

TSW is free to play. Kinda sorta just happened a couple weeks or so ago. Just FYI.

It's not. You don't pay subscription fee, but you still need to buy a copy of the game. Just like Guild Wars.

No, I'm still right, it's *free to play.*  That whole buy the game part is just not what I said or meant.  Duh. 

/Gah.  I'm wrong, and I know it, so... my bad. 
//But *technically*.... Oh, ok, yeah, I'm still wrong.

[Merseine]

//But *technically*.... Oh, ok, yeah, I'm still wrong.

http://youtu.be/hou0lU8WMgo

[FatherXmas]

And I missed this earlier.  One of the analysts following NCSoft put out another prediction for 4Q and next year.

They are stating that Operational Profits, which just offsets the cost of running their games and not take into account development, marketing and other overhead costs, will be at an all time high for the company due to GW2 and Lineage I sales.  They don't expect Aion, L2 or B&S sales to grow from their 3Q numbers.  They expect quarterly sales overall of 275,000 million KrW and an OP of 101,000 million KrW.  They also mention that the baseball team is costing them 15,000 million KrW.

B&S will be rolled out in China 3Q 2013 and GW2 in 4Q 2013.  They expect B&S to earn 60,000 million KrW for 2013 from China but don't have an estimate for GW2 since they aren't sure how it will be packaged and sold there (unlikely just a disk).

They still says the stock is a buy but are lowing their 2013 stock price estimate to 280,000 KrW from 310,000 KrW due to increase marketing and  labor costs eating into the profits.

[Terwyn]

And I missed this earlier.  One of the analysts following NCSoft put out another prediction for 4Q and next year.

They are stating that Operational Profits, which just offsets the cost of running their games and not take into account development, marketing and other overhead costs, will be at an all time high for the company due to GW2 and Lineage I sales.  They don't expect Aion, L2 or B&S sales to grow from their 3Q numbers.  They expect quarterly sales overall of 275,000 million KrW and an OP of 101,000 million KrW.  They also mention that the baseball team is costing them 15,000 million KrW.

B&S will be rolled out in China 3Q 2013 and GW2 in 4Q 2013.  They expect B&S to earn 60,000 million KrW for 2013 from China but don't have an estimate for GW2 since they aren't sure how it will be packaged and sold there (unlikely just a disk).

They still says the stock is a buy but are lowing their 2013 stock price estimate to 280,000 KrW from 310,000 KrW due to increase marketing and  labor costs eating into the profits.

Isn't it currently close to half that value?

[FatherXmas]

Yes as the stock is in the 150,000-160,000 range.  Might be the point of labeling the stock as a BUY if it is predicted to nearly double by the end of the year.

Of course last year many analysts thought the stock was going to hit 450,000 so what do they know.

[JaguarX]

Yes as the stock is in the 150,000-160,000 range.  Might be the point of labeling the stock as a BUY if it is predicted to nearly double by the end of the year.

hmmmm.
buy now and it might go up soon in the mid-run. Buy now it might sink lower and never go up. risk risk risk. Buy now or get even better price tomorrow. Always risk. I'll mull it over a glass of Dalmore 15, and then decide again and this time ensuring no delays.

[dwturducken]

And, three years ago, CNBC said Bear Stearns was a sound and safe investment.

[Victoria Victrix]

Yes as the stock is in the 150,000-160,000 range.  Might be the point of labeling the stock as a BUY if it is predicted to nearly double by the end of the year.

Of course last year many analysts thought the stock was going to hit 450,000 so what do they know.

So far, if I recall correctly, FatherXmas (you have been paying better attention to this than me, the stock market makes my head hurt) these Korean analysts have pretty much been wrong on the predictions of where the stock was going?  The only time they were right was the big bump following the release of GW2, then the fall when it sold 2 million boxes instead of the predicted 6 million (a fall the analysts did not predict).

[TimtheEnchanter]

hmmmm.
buy now and it might go up soon in the mid-run. Buy now it might sink lower and never go up. risk risk risk. Buy now or get even better price tomorrow. Always risk. I'll mull it over a glass of Dalmore 15, and then decide again and this time ensuring no delays.

Stork Market = Lottery, with research having a slightly better chance of improving your odds.

[JaguarX]

Stork Market = Lottery, with research having a slightly better chance of improving your odds.

basically.

[FatherXmas]

So far, if I recall correctly, FatherXmas (you have been paying better attention to this than me, the stock market makes my head hurt) these Korean analysts have pretty much been wrong on the predictions of where the stock was going?  The only time they were right was the big bump following the release of GW2, then the fall when it sold 2 million boxes instead of the predicted 6 million (a fall the analysts did not predict).

GW sold around 7 million copies, split between the original game and the various expansions (and combo editions), world wide including Asia.  This is why I can't believe anybody would have suggested that GW2 would sell 6 million just in NA and Europe in it's first month.  Therefore the market couldn't have been disappointed by it's 46,000 million KrW sales numbers for that 1 month in 3Q.

Of course that said I took a walk down memory lane at KDB Daewoo Securities and found this release from Sept 3rd 2012 where it's mentioned a prediction of 5-6 million units sold in 2012 (I think they meant to say 2013).  However in the very next paragraph they specifically state that they expect the game to sell 3.12 million units in 2012 with another 1.54 million in 2013 with roughly 10% of the owners spending $15 USD a month in the store.

Going back even further these guys had the stock hitting 510,000 () before they started to lower estimates almost with every release relating to NCSoft. 

Going back even further to July, they had an interesting tidbit about Blade & Soul in Korea.  31% of the accounts were to women.  They also stated that the population distribution relating to age was 39% in their 20s, 29% in their 30s and 24% in their 40s.  That's 92% there with over 50% age 30 or older.  Why am I more crept out now that I know this? 

[Victoria Victrix]

GW sold around 7 million copies, split between the original game and the various expansions (and combo editions), world wide including Asia.  This is why I can't believe anybody would have suggested that GW2 would sell 6 million just in NA and Europe in it's first month.  Therefore the market couldn't have been disappointed by it's 46,000 million KrW sales numbers for that 1 month in 3Q.

Of course that said I took a walk down memory lane at KDB Daewoo Securities and found this release from Sept 3rd 2012 where it's mentioned a prediction of 5-6 million units sold in 2012 (I think they meant to say 2013).  However in the very next paragraph they specifically state that they expect the game to sell 3.12 million units in 2012 with another 1.54 million in 2013 with roughly 10% of the owners spending $15 USD a month in the store.

Yes, that is the article I remember.  If people were skimming and saw the expectation of 6 million units sold in 2012, sales of 2 million would certainly disappoint.

Going back even further these guys had the stock hitting 510,000 () before they started to lower estimates almost with every release relating to NCSoft. 

I want what these guys are smoking.  I wouldn't need the game or even a computer, I could just lie there with a smile on my face and play in my head.

Going back even further to July, they had an interesting tidbit about Blade & Soul in Korea.  31% of the accounts were to women.  They also stated that the population distribution relating to age was 39% in their 20s, 29% in their 30s and 24% in their 40s.  That's 92% there with over 50% age 30 or older.  Why am I more crept out now that I know this? 

Creeps me out too. 

[TimtheEnchanter]

31% of the accounts were to women.  They also stated that the population distribution relating to age was 39% in their 20s, 29% in their 30s and 24% in their 40s.  That's 92% there with over 50% age 30 or older.  Why am I more crept out now that I know this? 

Hmm... does Korea share Japan's unexpected taste for perverse animation? A lot of the "Hentai" culture, and even a lot of the more innocent Anime owes its popularity not to hormonally-insane teenagers, but mature, responsible, successful adults, who live in a world so cutthroat, that there is literally no time to bother with personal relationships. We're talking about people who will hire prostitutes, literally just to have a friendly ear and a shoulder to cry on.

[FatherXmas]

[Kosmos]

Of course that said I took a walk down memory lane at KDB Daewoo Securities and found this release from Sept 3rd 2012 where it's mentioned a prediction of 5-6 million units sold in 2012 (I think they meant to say 2013).  However in the very next paragraph they specifically state that they expect the game to sell 3.12 million units in 2012 with another 1.54 million in 2013 with roughly 10% of the owners spending $15 USD a month in the store.

Going back even further these guys had the stock hitting 510,000 () before they started to lower estimates almost with every release relating to NCSoft. 

When I read the Daewoo reports a month or so ago I thought they must be either incompetent or crooked. And the projections are just so far out there that I had a hard time giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming the former.

[FatherXmas]

When I read the Daewoo reports a month or so ago I thought they must be either incompetent or crooked. And the projections are just so far out there that I had a hard time giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming the former.

Except they do jive with many other analysts.  Of course their collective track record makes chemical engineering look like an exact science (friends who were ChemE majors in college had shirts made up with "2+2=5 for very large values of 2" due to the difference between theoretical and actual results during labs).

[Kosmos]

Except they do jive with many other analysts.  Of course their collective track record makes chemical engineering look like an exact science (friends who were ChemE majors in college had shirts made up with "2+2=5 for very large values of 2" due to the difference between theoretical and actual results during labs).

They were all high (however you want to read that), but Daewoo was an outlier nevertheless. In the period, and for the analysts I looked at, they were consistently the highest estimate and often by a wide margin.

[srmalloy]

[HarvesterOfEyes]

A friend of mine I commented to about Blade & Soul referred to him as 'Hyung-Tits Kim'; apparently his character design predilections are well-known...

Having seen the video linked in another thread I'd say his style was developed without ever actually seeing a real girl.

[saipaman]

With all the .... 'reference material'... available on the Internet, you'd expect something more realistic.