NCSoft Stockwatch

[Merseine]

I don't know about you guys, but I just became a Hanwha Eagles fan.   ;)

As a Cubs fan, I can totally relate.

[FatherXmas]

I don't know about you guys, but I just became a Hanwha Eagles fan.   ;)

NC Dinos have moved into 7th, by one win and one tie.

http://www.sportstats.com/baseball/south-korea/kpb/standings/

As for news, and I don't know why I missed it, there was the big Korean Games Conference going on.  I didn't see any NCSOFT news specifically but maybe the outcry of PC online games are dead, mobile games are the future was talked about and proven ToD was called a tad soon?  If MMOs aren't going the way of the Dodo, or even subscription based games in the west,  then a company like NCSOFT with their portfolio isn't in a bad position for future growth.

I'm grasping here.  Maybe it was just generally positive industry news related to the KGC that raised interest in all the game company stocks there.

[Twisted Toon]

NC Dinos have moved into 7th, by one win and one tie.

http://www.sportstats.com/baseball/south-korea/kpb/standings/

As for news, and I don't know why I missed it, there was the big Korean Games Conference going on.  I didn't see any NCSOFT news specifically but maybe the outcry of PC online games are dead, mobile games are the future was talked about and proven ToD was called a tad soon?  If MMOs aren't going the way of the Dodo, or even subscription based games in the west,  then a company like NCSOFT with their portfolio isn't in a bad position for future growth.

I'm grasping here.  Maybe it was just generally positive industry news related to the KGC that raised interest in all the game company stocks there.

Your guess is as good as the execs' at NCSoft...probably even better.

[FatherXmas]

It's also the end of the quarter so, there could have been some leaks about how they thought the quarter went.

[damo2113]

Isnt the Financial Quarter ending early November? Also i just wanted to point out that i was watching the stocks when Wildstars delay was confirmed which occured i think several days prior to the earning release. Interestingly the stocks didnt move. So honestly not sure how closely investors are even eyeing wild star yet. Same thing when they announced the payment model, no movement. Which for me was the biggest news ever, had it gone free to play i would have thought investors would have gotten nervous.

[JaguarX]

usually investors that get too nervous and worry about day to day movement end up losing the most money instead of focusing on the big picture over all.

[FatherXmas]

Isnt the Financial Quarter ending early November? Also i just wanted to point out that i was watching the stocks when Wildstars delay was confirmed which occured i think several days prior to the earning release. Interestingly the stocks didnt move. So honestly not sure how closely investors are even eyeing wild star yet. Same thing when they announced the payment model, no movement. Which for me was the biggest news ever, had it gone free to play i would have thought investors would have gotten nervous.

Quarter ends Sept 30th, we don't hear about it until mid November.  That's why a leak can be profitable if you get in front of it.

[damo2113]

Oh, ok well that explains alot. Not sure how anyone would get a hold of the leak though, must be high level stuff i suspect.

[FatherXmas]

It could be as simple as an offhanded comment on how things are going, overheard at the conference.  Analysts tea leaf reading popularity numbers at PC Cafes or even web traffic, they find someone from the company that might know something, say a comment in passing like "it sure looks like XYZ did really well this quarter" and gauge the expression on that person.  They could say something negative and a furrow of the brow can imply "what are you talking about, we did great".  Heck even old fashion eavesdropping (or high tech parabolic mike) of those people having lunch can yield hints.

If an analyst can call it then they get more people paying him to get his incites ahead of the curve.

Anywho I expect the stock to drift down as others sell some of their stock to cash in on the rise until mid Nov.

[Kosmos]

If an analyst can call it then they get more people paying him to get his incites ahead of the curve.

Another nice typo; I think NCSoft may well have been paying Daewoo's guy for some incites last year.

[damo2113]

I tend to agree fatherXmas, we should see some pullback before the next earnings release, but after this unexpected rise, and the fact there has been another rise this morning so far leads me to think this quarter could turn out alot better than expected.

Im not even sure blade and souls will be released in china this quarter which i was hoping to support prices. Should be an Interesting 4th Quarter.

[FatherXmas]

I tend to agree fatherXmas, we should see some pullback before the next earnings release, but after this unexpected rise, and the fact there has been another rise this morning so far leads me to think this quarter could turn out alot better than expected.

Im not even sure blade and souls will be released in china this quarter which i was hoping to support prices. Should be an Interesting 4th Quarter.

But this rise didn't have the same spike in trade volume.  So it's more of a traditional rebound after profits taken.

[FatherXmas]

Another nice typo; I think NCSoft may well have been paying Daewoo's guy for some incites last year.

Oops.  I think the first time I typed incest, also an interesting typo.

[Tubbius]

Santa knows about stocks, as well he should.  :)

[FatherXmas]

Missed this a from last week.  KDB Daewoo posted a month ahead of time guesstimate about 3rd quarter numbers as well as how the rest of the year should go.

No real big shifts other than slight tweaks in their L1 and royalty income numbers, down slightly.   They've puffed up the news the B&S is closer to release in China which they say well happen by year's end.  But I wouldn't hold your breath, things always move slower than one expects.

In the end 3Q sales numbers and profits will likely be down year over year which means the stock price will likely drop when the official numbers do.

For 4Q they are expecting a big kick in L1 sales due to the cash shop and B&S recovering a bit in Korea but the expected royalties from B&S in China, poof, mostly gone.  In the end, 2013 sales will be flat but KDB is still expecting higher profits, in the 30% range (optimistic much?).

Most interesting but not surprising fact in the document is how LoL is swamping Korean games in the PC Cafes.  NCSOFT's best game in PC Cafes is Aion with around 9 million hours a month played.  LoL is around 90 million hours.  Meet the WoW of MOBAs.

[damo2113]

Yeh its crazy, if you go to a site called Gametrics(in korean), it gives you a fantastic breakdown of the top 10 games being played. LOL is doing crazy well, wow and SC2/SC1 arnt even on the list anymore interestingly.

Hmm, so you suspect NCSOFT will start losing a bit of ground over the next few quarters huh? Cant say i fault that logic if we dont get B&S in china anytime soon.

What did you mean by "For 4Q they are expecting a big kick in L1 sales due to the cash shop and B&S recovering a bit in Korea" Kick as in bad or good :P?

[FatherXmas]

Have Gametrics site bookmarked but a lot of the details are behind a paywall.  But I find the breakdown of PC Cafe hardware interesting.

[JaguarX]

Yeh its crazy, if you go to a site called Gametrics(in korean), it gives you a fantastic breakdown of the top 10 games being played. LOL is doing crazy well, wow and SC2/SC1 arnt even on the list anymore interestingly.

Hmm, so you suspect NCSOFT will start losing a bit of ground over the next few quarters huh? Cant say i fault that logic if we dont get B&S in china anytime soon.

What did you mean by "For 4Q they are expecting a big kick in L1 sales due to the cash shop and B&S recovering a bit in Korea" Kick as in bad or good :P?

Think SC2/SC1 refers to StarCraft,


StarCraft 1 is on there right below Blade and Soul (5) in the number 6 slot.

[damo2113]

Yeh its a shame about the pay wall thing. Even worse non koreans cant sign up for their services without a citizens code. Kinda lame.

[JaguarX]

Yeh its a shame about the pay wall thing. Even worse non koreans cant sign up for their services without a citizens code. Kinda lame.

Yeah heard about that change. Back when I was in Korea, the game cafes were the hot spot for many soldiers. No citizen code needed then. Times seemed to have changed.