NCSoft Stockwatch

[Victoria Victrix]

NCSoft would advertise premium sushi as "cold raw fish on rice mixed with vinegar".

[Zerias]

NCSoft would advertise premium sushi as "cold raw fish on rice mixed with vinegar".

You forget to mention that they would insure we knew it came from the Breast Breed of Fish.

(nope, not sorry)

[FatherXmas]

No stock news today, last day of their 3 day Seollal holiday, aka Korean New Year, aka Chinese New Year, aka Lunar New Year.

[DarkCurrent]

Magic 8-Ball Says:

Big Drop This Week

Cause:

During a weekend of partying with business friends and investors, drunken NCSoft execs let slip that they really have no clue what they're doing.

[malonkey1]

Magic 8-Ball Says:

Big Drop This Week

Cause:

During a weekend of partying with business friends and investors, drunken NCSoft execs let slip that they really have no clue what they're doing.

+1 Internets

[Absolute]

it's League of Legends by a nearly 3:1 margin.

Now our PvP at the time, late 2005/early 2006, pre IO, had very asymmetrical one on one.  Tank Vs Scrapper tended to be a draw.  Someone who could move quicker than their opponent tended to have an upper hand.  Blaster Vs Melee was a match in avoiding.  Balance was better on teams of course but even then gameplay and powers were very different between PvE and PvP.

Plus there was rooting.

I just thought I'd comment on this while I'm here.

League of Legends PvP is extremely close to what CoH was.

Both are team based
Both have "roles" that need to be filled (Damage/ADC, Support etc.)
Both involve a lot of movement and kiting
Both were simplistic (PreIO/Incarnate age) - Funny enough, CoH PvP builds typically consisted of 4 main attacks, same as LoL
Both have rooting
Both have tons of options for gameplay style/character
Both involve a base with drones, winning is pushing your foe back (As was zone wars)
Both have advanced tactics of ambushing/baiting/deceiving/tricking

Biggest of all, both have fast gameplay. Fights can end in seconds. You need good reflexes. You need to be paranoid and think things through. Both have an excellent competitive scene. What do games like GW2 lack in their PvP? Movement and speed. LoL has that, so does CoH.

The only big difference I can think of is skill shots that take aiming, but that's not too far from timing your attacks with teammates for burst damage. Both include timing.

The LoL meta game is essentially the same as the old PvP. A lot of CoH PvPers have walked into LoL and risen through the ranking system fast.
I think the execution of CoH PvP was lacking, but the PvP itself wasn't the problem.

The problem?

-Gated behind 50 levels of PvE per character
-Subscription based
-Never advertised as a PvP game
-Some balance problems
-Lack of objectives/incentive

As someone stated earlier, the Korean video of CoH seemed like a bait and switch. That's definitely not the game I played.

While it can be argued that the popularity of Super Heroes isn't as high in Asia, there's no doubt we had something they would have loved (Our PvP system).

(Last note: PvP and PvE powers worked relatively the same until i13. Definitely at 2006)

[Colette]

Well, they appear to have stabilized, at roughly 135. Not a good week for us.

[NecrotechMaster]

i dont think we will really see them hurting until the next quarters numbers are out and showing that gw2 has dropped off a cliff due to only relying on in game purchases

[FatherXmas]

i dont think we will really see them hurting until the next quarters numbers are out and showing that gw2 has dropped off a cliff due to only relying on in game purchases

Except that's been forecast already.  The current analyst consensus for the 1st quarter is around 185 for sales (range 153-211).  4th quarter 2012 was 283 (thousand million KrW).  Consensus profit for the 1st quarter is about 45 (range 21-74).  Book value is around 61,000 per share.  That puts Price to Book at 2.2.  Prior to the stock rise due to the success of Aion, the book value was 2.1 at the end of 2008.  At the end of 2010, off from it's first peak it was 4.3.  At the end of 2011, off from it's all time high, it was 5.9.

It's when a stock misses the consensus or when analysts change their guesstimates downwards or downgrade their buy/sell recommendation is when you get big selloffs.

As I've been saying, the super high stock price in 2010-2011 simply weren't supported by the companies fundamentals, it was predicated, somewhat like Apple, that NCsoft's next titles would significantly grow sales much like Aion did.  Except unlike Apple where new product announcements are like clockwork and that we could expect a "revolutionary" new product every few years, the over hype finally ran dry 3/4 the way though 2011 and much like an avalanche the stock price collapsed.  Of course it rallied a few times as investors decided it was cheap enough followed by another selloff from investors who missed the first one and then the second.  However when finally B&S came out, after hyping it since Aion, and it didn't bring in "new" sales like Aion did.  Finally reality set in and analysts are actually looking at the actual numbers than trying to correlate unique page views on MMO sites to determine projected sales of B&S, using Aion as a baseline.

[FatherXmas]

Someone posted on the GW2 forum the reported news that GW2 would be going to China this year and that there will be a paid expansion for NA/EU out the 2nd half of 2013.  This is the reply posted by ArenaNet's Head of Global Community, Martin Kerstein.

The information in this report is not correct.

It is true that Kongzhong is our Chinese publisher and that we are working with them to release Guild Wars 2 into the Chinese market. But like with the release in North America and Europe, we will do extensive beta testing, and the feedback of those tests will determine the time when we will release the game in China.

It is also true that we have said in the past that we will do an expansion at one point. But currently we are fully committed to expand the world of Guild Wars 2 through our Living Story (you can read more about it in this blog post by narrative designer Angel McCoy)

Sounds like another case of wishful thinking on whoever was the mouthpiece for NCsoft on the Investors Conference Call.

[Blue Pulsar]

Except that's been forecast already.  The current analyst consensus for the 1st quarter is around 185 for sales (range 153-211).  4th quarter 2012 was 283 (thousand million KrW).  Consensus profit for the 1st quarter is about 45 (range 21-74).  Book value is around 61,000 per share.  That puts Price to Book at 2.2.  Prior to the stock rise due to the success of Aion, the book value was 2.1 at the end of 2008.  At the end of 2010, off from it's first peak it was 4.3.  At the end of 2011, off from it's all time high, it was 5.9.

It's when a stock misses the consensus or when analysts change their guesstimates downwards or downgrade their buy/sell recommendation is when you get big selloffs.

As I've been saying, the super high stock price in 2010-2011 simply weren't supported by the companies fundamentals, it was predicated, somewhat like Apple, that NCsoft's next titles would significantly grow sales much like Aion did.  Except unlike Apple where new product announcements are like clockwork and that we could expect a "revolutionary" new product every few years, the over hype finally ran dry 3/4 the way though 2011 and much like an avalanche the stock price collapsed.  Of course it rallied a few times as investors decided it was cheap enough followed by another selloff from investors who missed the first one and then the second.  However when finally B&S came out, after hyping it since Aion, and it didn't bring in "new" sales like Aion did.  Finally reality set in and analysts are actually looking at the actual numbers than trying to correlate unique page views on MMO sites to determine projected sales of B&S, using Aion as a baseline.

Okay, I'm sure other people know but I don't and am SUPER curious. I've been reading a lot of your posts in this thread and others... How the hell do you know so damn much about NCSoft, their stocks, and their financial situation? No, this is not at all sarcastic. You seem to know as much about them as they do, dare I say, enough that you seem to be an expert on it. I'm guessing you are.

[JanessaVR]

I'm guessing he works in the finance industry, he certainly seems to know his stuff, and therefore he knows where to go to get information that may not be obvious to members of the general public (and how to interpret it properly).

[FatherXmas]

Okay, I'm sure other people know but I don't and am SUPER curious. I've been reading a lot of your posts in this thread and others... How the hell do you know so damn much about NCSoft, their stocks, and their financial situation? No, this is not at all sarcastic. You seem to know as much about them as they do, dare I say, enough that you seem to be an expert on it. I'm guessing you are.

I watch a lot of CNBC (or I slept in a Holliday Inn Express, one or the other).    I was also a credit shy for a minor in economics back in college (they didn't count the practical Engineering Economics course I took senior year  ).

Ratios are easy to compute and you just need to rummage through NCsoft's quarterly reports, which you can get off of NCsoft's website, for half of the raw data while getting the stock price for the period in question is available from Yahoo/Google finance pages.  Relatively recently I was pointed to one of NCsoft's analysts sites who post their analysis for free and it can be a funny read.  Every so often they would try to anticipate the impact of a new MMO by some of the most created methods of inference to other MMOs that had been released that I could imagine.

Once you calculate some of these ratios you take a look at other companies in their industry and known successful companies and see where they are relative to each other.  I've been looking at Nexon, Activision/Blizzard, and EA as comparison companies.

Also over time I've been finding more and more Korean gaming sites to try to glean insights on how NCsoft's games are doing there.  Gametrics is interesting because from what I can tell it looks only at the PC cafe numbers and while a lot of the data is gated for a fee, enough is available to get an idea of what's being played and in what numbers.  Since I was one of the hardware recommendation guys on the old forums what I found interesting was something like the Steam survey of hardware that's found in PC cafes.  And since video games are a big business in Korea, actually a surprisingly sizable exporter, Korean business sites like Money Today actually break out the gaming company news on a separate tab.  Sure reading Google translated articles will toast your mind due to the translation gibberish it ofter produces but you can find headlines about NCsoft that isn't on NCsoft's own website.  Also THISISGAME, both the beta global version and the native Korean version also have articles on NCsoft that aren't found in Massively or other western MMO sites.

Lastly it just annoys me that the majority of people don't actually understand what the price of stock actually means to a company and how often it isn't related to the relative financial strength or weakness of that company.

Also way back when the closing was first announced, I loaded up a spreadsheet with all the data I was able to pull from all the quarterly reports from NCsoft and updated it as the 3rd and 4th quarter numbers came out.  For CoH and GW I also bothered to pull the currency exchange rates for every quarter since CoH and GW were developed here in the USA so I could relay their numbers in $ and not thousands of KrW.  It's why I can throw together a quick chart of all the games NCsoft breaks out in their quarterly reports.

[DarkCurrent]

Someone posted on the GW2 forum the reported news that GW2 would be going to China this year and that there will be a paid expansion for NA/EU out the 2nd half of 2013.  This is the reply posted by ArenaNet's Head of Global Community, Martin Kerstein.

Sounds like another case of wishful thinking on whoever was the mouthpiece for NCsoft on the Investors Conference Call.

So what you're saying is that ArenNet is on the chopping block.

[JWBullfrog]

So what you're saying is that ArenNet is on the chopping block.

You know, I would see that as a good thing; provided that A-net can go independant. I would be more willing to try out their games.

[Victoria Victrix]

Honestly if ArenaNet can go idie, I will run out and buy a copy of something just to help support them.  I've talked to people who have friends working there, and a lot of the stuff that is.....less than customer friendly....is being mandated by edicts from NCSoft. 

But ArenaNet, fortunately for them, has a mandated buy-out clause in their contract.  None of the other studios NCSoft bought or created has that.  I feel REALLY sorry for Carbine.

[Taceus Jiwede]

I watch a lot of CNBC (or I slept in a Holliday Inn Express, one or the other).    I was also a credit shy for a minor in economics back in college (they didn't count the practical Engineering Economics course I took senior year  ).

Ratios are easy to compute and you just need to rummage through NCsoft's quarterly reports, which you can get off of NCsoft's website, for half of the raw data while getting the stock price for the period in question is available from Yahoo/Google finance pages.  Relatively recently I was pointed to one of NCsoft's analysts sites who post their analysis for free and it can be a funny read.  Every so often they would try to anticipate the impact of a new MMO by some of the most created methods of inference to other MMOs that had been released that I could imagine.

Once you calculate some of these ratios you take a look at other companies in their industry and known successful companies and see where they are relative to each other.  I've been looking at Nexon, Activision/Blizzard, and EA as comparison companies.

Also over time I've been finding more and more Korean gaming sites to try to glean insights on how NCsoft's games are doing there.  Gametrics is interesting because from what I can tell it looks only at the PC cafe numbers and while a lot of the data is gated for a fee, enough is available to get an idea of what's being played and in what numbers.  Since I was one of the hardware recommendation guys on the old forums what I found interesting was something like the Steam survey of hardware that's found in PC cafes.  And since video games are a big business in Korea, actually a surprisingly sizable exporter, Korean business sites like Money Today actually break out the gaming company news on a separate tab.  Sure reading Google translated articles will toast your mind due to the translation gibberish it ofter produces but you can find headlines about NCsoft that isn't on NCsoft's own website.  Also THISISGAME, both the beta global version and the native Korean version also have articles on NCsoft that aren't found in Massively or other western MMO sites.

Lastly it just annoys me that the majority of people don't actually understand what the price of stock actually means to a company and how often it isn't related to the relative financial strength or weakness of that company.

Also way back when the closing was first announced, I loaded up a spreadsheet with all the data I was able to pull from all the quarterly reports from NCsoft and updated it as the 3rd and 4th quarter numbers came out.  For CoH and GW I also bothered to pull the currency exchange rates for every quarter since CoH and GW were developed here in the USA so I could relay their numbers in $ and not thousands of KrW.  It's why I can throw together a quick chart of all the games NCsoft breaks out in their quarterly reports.

Ohhhh I get it....your a witch!  Seriously though Father Xmas I love reading your posts I always learn something new.

[FatherXmas]

So what you're saying is that ArenNet is on the chopping block.

If you were concerned about being shut down, why aggravate the situation by publicly disagreeing with your "bosses".  Especially if it might affect the stock price.

Ohhhh I get it....your a witch!

But I don't weigh the same as a duck?

[Twisted Toon]

If you were concerned about being shut down, why aggravate the situation by publicly disagreeing with your "bosses".  Especially if it might affect the stock price.

But I don't weigh the same as a duck?

A duck prepared for dinner doesn't weigh the same as a duck roaming free on a pond either.

Just sayin' 

[Lucretia MacEvil]

A duck prepared for dinner doesn't weigh the same as a duck roaming free on a pond either.

Just sayin' 

But the whole point is to weigh as much as something that floats (as proof a witch is made of wood, which also floats), so if he weighs the same amount as a dinner duck that does not float, it has no bearing on the argument.

... what's with all the funny looks?