Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 722944 times)

LadyShin

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1640 on: February 07, 2013, 08:02:25 PM »
Just a curiousity, would it save NCSoft to go the way of Dell computers, and buy off 100% of their public stock from their shareholders and go 100% private?
"Frank! It's the love boat to Cuba! Shuffle board and pineapples filled with rum. Know what they do? They put little paper umbrellas sticking out the top so that when it rains, it don't thin out the liquor."

Illusionss

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1641 on: February 07, 2013, 08:06:41 PM »
???

Watchya talkin about Willis?  What shell game?  What cloak and dagger means.

They're attempting to draw attention away from mistakes like closing very popular MMOs/tanking stock prices with New Shinies. Only the new shinies are having some problems.

They're also being very disingenious about all this [hope that is spelled right]. Its either fudging the truth, shoving some stuff under the rug or an outright Wall of Silence.

Ironwolf

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1642 on: February 07, 2013, 08:13:19 PM »
Cloak and dagger means they are flashing demo's of Wildstar and slapping a random release date on it - knowing the game won't make that date just to try and bloster slipping stock prices. The company isn't going bust........yet, but they are bleeding investors like crazy and so they are shuffling deck chairs around on the Titanic while the band plays to try and distract from cannibalizing from one game to try and build another.

When overall subs don't increase it just moves from one game to another instead of increasing total sales - you are dying. In sales if you are growing you are dying.

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1643 on: February 07, 2013, 08:16:23 PM »
Please clarify. What is this "nosedive" CoH is/was in?

Sales dropped 57% over the last three years.  You may not think that's a nosedive but it's losing altitude at an alarming rate.
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Hyperstrike

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1644 on: February 07, 2013, 08:20:12 PM »
Lol, that is a seriously morbid joke.

Glad you appreciated it!   ;D

HarvesterOfEyes

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1645 on: February 07, 2013, 08:20:55 PM »
Just a curiousity, would it save NCSoft to go the way of Dell computers, and buy off 100% of their public stock from their shareholders and go 100% private?
Not if they're run by morons, no.

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1646 on: February 07, 2013, 08:23:14 PM »
Cloak and dagger means they are flashing demo's of Wildstar and slapping a random release date on it - knowing the game won't make that date just to try and bloster slipping stock prices. The company isn't going bust........yet, but they are bleeding investors like crazy and so they are shuffling deck chairs around on the Titanic while the band plays to try and distract from cannibalizing from one game to try and build another.

When overall subs don't increase it just moves from one game to another instead of increasing total sales - you are dying. In sales if you are growing you are dying.

Well we'll see if the game is released at the end of the year or not.  It's true however that they do have a history of overestimating when the product will be done.  Much like any senior management at any software company I've ever worked at.  Writing software is like writing a novel, some days you a chapter done, some days only a few pages and some days you have to scrap a chapter because it sucks on a second reading.  That's why most developers follow Scotty's rules of estimating when they talk to senior management.
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HarvesterOfEyes

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1647 on: February 07, 2013, 08:27:13 PM »
Sales dropped 57% over the last three years.  You may not think that's a nosedive but it's losing altitude at an alarming rate.
No that's not good. I guess we differ on how to use various aviation euphemisms. I would tend to call something bad by a different name than something else approximately 3 times worse, but that's just me.

I am curious though, how many times bigger were Aion's sales at their peak than CoH's at its peak.

I ask that, because without that information the 8-9X comparison of recent sales lacks context.

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1648 on: February 07, 2013, 08:34:22 PM »
Just a curiousity, would it save NCSoft to go the way of Dell computers, and buy off 100% of their public stock from their shareholders and go 100% private?

The purpose of taking a company private is to keep shareholders from interfering with what has to be done to restructure a company.  It doesn't help when every decision is dissected and commented on by pundits (analysts) ad nauseum, much like politics today.  When management can't do anything significant because of fear of how it may affect the stock price negatively you eliminate that fear by eliminating the stockholders.  Now you're free to do whatever is necessary to right the ship without all the "helpful" second guessing by outsiders.
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FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1649 on: February 07, 2013, 08:46:02 PM »
No that's not good. I guess we differ on how to use various aviation euphemisms. I would tend to call something bad by a different name than something else approximately 3 times worse, but that's just me.

I am curious though, how many times bigger were Aion's sales at their peak than CoH's at its peak.

I ask that, because without that information the 8-9X comparison of recent sales lacks context.

About 6x, 89,846 vs 15,706 million KrW.  Here have a chart.



It's possible that some of Aion's and Lineage II sales are now counted as royalties since NCsoft licensed the running of the games in the EU to third parties.
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Blue Pulsar

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1650 on: February 07, 2013, 08:57:15 PM »
So, CoX has been outselling Guild Wars since late 2008 and it's still around? Guild Wars, that is.
Blue Pulsar - 50 nrg/kin def - first toon - Liberty
Bane of Lanur - 52 nec/dark MM - Main vill - Liberty
Destan H. - 53 SS/FA brute - Farm/PvP hybrid - Freedom
Destan's Fury - 53 StJ/Regen brute - PvPer - Freedom
Destan's Shadow Gang - 53 Thug/Dark MM - PvPer - Freedom

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1651 on: February 07, 2013, 09:22:48 PM »
So, CoX has been outselling Guild Wars since late 2008 and it's still around? Guild Wars, that is.

Yes, but ArenaNet was working on GW2.  Why shut down GW1 since at the very least it's advertising for GW2 and you don't tick off potential customers for it's sequel.  Plus GW1 still outsold CoH over it's lifespan, they had the cash to do the development work.

Chart of cumulative sales over lifetime, CoH (blue) Vs GW1 (orange/red).

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Blue Pulsar

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1652 on: February 07, 2013, 09:27:07 PM »
Am I seeing that right? CoX only made 180k for it's entire run?
Blue Pulsar - 50 nrg/kin def - first toon - Liberty
Bane of Lanur - 52 nec/dark MM - Main vill - Liberty
Destan H. - 53 SS/FA brute - Farm/PvP hybrid - Freedom
Destan's Fury - 53 StJ/Regen brute - PvPer - Freedom
Destan's Shadow Gang - 53 Thug/Dark MM - PvPer - Freedom

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1653 on: February 07, 2013, 09:34:09 PM »
Am I seeing that right? CoX only made 180k for it's entire run?

Sorry, didn't label the Y, that's million USD.  And I converted each quarter from KrW to USD using the average exchange rate for that quarter.

The previous chart are the actual game sale numbers reported in KrW from each quarterly report.
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Blue Pulsar

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1654 on: February 07, 2013, 09:36:22 PM »
Sorry, didn't label the Y, that's million USD.  And I converted each quarter from KrW to USD using the average exchange rate for that quarter.

So, 180,000,000?
Blue Pulsar - 50 nrg/kin def - first toon - Liberty
Bane of Lanur - 52 nec/dark MM - Main vill - Liberty
Destan H. - 53 SS/FA brute - Farm/PvP hybrid - Freedom
Destan's Fury - 53 StJ/Regen brute - PvPer - Freedom
Destan's Shadow Gang - 53 Thug/Dark MM - PvPer - Freedom

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1655 on: February 07, 2013, 09:46:52 PM »
So, 180,000,000?

Yes, the game in it's lifetime, at least up to when NCsoft stopped reporting it's sales numbers, had total lifetime sales of about $183 million dollars US.  In KrW it's 194,915 million based on the sum of quarterly reports.  There was a time from 4Q 2008 to 3Q 2009 where the exchange rate favored the dollar heavily so more KrW for the buck.

Edit: In contrast, GW2 just made 164,854 million KrW in it's first 4 months.  However analysts are predicting that next quarter, now that the initial sales rush is over, GW2 is expected to earn around 20,000 million KrW a quarter until the expansion comes out 3Q.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2013, 09:53:29 PM by FatherXmas »
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HarvesterOfEyes

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1656 on: February 07, 2013, 10:10:28 PM »
About 6x, 89,846 vs 15,706 million KrW.

Thanks.

How do sales compare to expenses for these two?

Quote
  Here have a chart.
No thanks. Just the numbers if you please.


JaguarX

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1657 on: February 07, 2013, 10:16:50 PM »
Yes, but ArenaNet was working on GW2.  Why shut down GW1 since at the very least it's advertising for GW2 and you don't tick off potential customers for it's sequel.  Plus GW1 still outsold CoH over it's lifespan, they had the cash to do the development work.

Chart of cumulative sales over lifetime, CoH (blue) Vs GW1 (orange/red).



Why am I getting the feeling that those decision makers merely looked at these charts and made decisions?

While numbers dont lie, I think it dont account for potential and many other factors like player satisfaction, and realization the super hero MMO market is about as bare as the EL Paso/New Mexico desert. They had the run of the market to themselves to grow without much competition, if any depending on who is asked. While many probably wouldnt have switched to GW2 as quick as GW1 players, we were still there. They think many of us will switch to GW2 now? I highly doubt most of us will and I hope they didnt it would work like that. Looks like quantity over quality. But hey, that is how buisness sometimes works I understand. COX had the potential to go further with a little bit of cash. There was nothing like it on the market.

But looking at these charts being presented to the board, and if something had to be cut, it would be the something from the lower lines. Since GW2 was coming, GW1 got a pass so the playerbase of the GW franchise wont be pissed and try to ensure success of GW2.

Like a 1980s Saab. Quirky, different and wouldnt be mistaken for anything else. It was a Saab. Then GM got ahold of them, they sold more but it was a Chevy with a Saab emblem. Lost alot of hardcore Saab fans that wouldnt have otherwise bought any other brand. In the end, Saab ended up defuct and non-production. But mention a Saab, many times first thing that comes to mind is the 80s version although the 2000s and up are way newer and should be the one in memory when someone think of Saab.

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1658 on: February 07, 2013, 10:25:41 PM »
Thanks.

How do sales compare to expenses for these two?
No thanks. Just the numbers if you please.

NCsoft does not release expenses or profits on a per game basis, only sales.
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HarvesterOfEyes

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1659 on: February 07, 2013, 10:42:57 PM »
...and from that I suspect people infer the existence of a shell-game.