NCSoft Stockwatch

[FatherXmas]

Stock is sitting at 141.5k at the moment, but apparently dropped as low as 139.0 earlier (52-week low.)

Okay I think I'm seeing why.  The national government is currently looking at multiple bills that affect the gaming industry in a negative way.  One is an up to 1% levy of sales to be put into a fund to help gaming addiction.  Another reduces national subsidies for the gaming industry.  A third will move the ban young players from midnight to 6am from 16 and under to 10pm to 7am for 19 and under.

On a more familiar note, NCsoft shut down a number of smaller games, refunding N Coin purchases in them.  In up news for them they've kicked off a new mobile game group with it's first game sounding a bit like Nintendogs.

[Blue Pulsar]

Okay I think I'm seeing why.  The national government is currently looking at multiple bills that affect the gaming industry in a negative way.  One is an up to 1% levy of sales to be put into a fund to help gaming addiction.  Another reduces national subsidies for the gaming industry.  A third will move the ban young players from midnight to 6am from 16 and under to 10pm to 7am for 19 and under.

So, you're still not thinking that it is because of the bad press they are getting for closing games like CoX down?

[FatherXmas]

So, you're still not thinking that it is because of the bad press they are getting for closing games like CoX down?

I never thought that.  The KT article that quoted VV might have been the first time it was brought to the attention of Korean investors and gamers and that was only a few weeks ago.

Anyways I was looking for why there are sudden sharp drops over the past two days.  That wouldn't be for us.

[NecrotechMaster]

hmm interesting, could it have been possible that due to these things being thrown around in the government that ncsoft may have shut down coh due that?

while the shutting down was still a bad move for them instead of trying to sell, i think this might have been what prompted the sudden shutdown notice

so thinking about it a minute:

1. ncsoft sees that stuff against the gaming industry is up in government
2. ncsoft predicts that this will cause a loss for all games so it wants to chop off "dead weight"
3. ncsoft knee jerkingly chooses coh to shut down
4. coh shutdown prompts massive public backlash
5. ncsoft continually responds to community questioning with lies and incompetence

this could eventually lead to ncsoft selling off the IP to get us off their back while they try to fight this stuff in their government and not lose any more face than they already have, especially with the continual stock drops they have been having

since this is all speculation, still having "wait and see" attitude for the time being

[Little Green Frog]

Okay I think I'm seeing why.

I also woudln't rule out the possibility that someone is speculating over their stock

[FatherXmas]

I also woudln't rule out the possibility that someone is speculating over their stock

Somehow I edited out the part where I said Nexon also took a sharp downturn as well.

[Quinch]

Which other games did NCsoft drop now, by the way?

[JaguarX]

Ooh... someone has a nefarious plan in the works.

nope. not nefarious. Just business and opportunity. Nothing against nor for NCSoft. Just something I would be still doing even if COH was alive and well.

[FatherXmas]

Which other games did NCsoft drop now, by the way?

From what I can make out from the Google Translate, the two Go-Stop and Golden Poker games of their online "board game" series.  All three are card games.

The reason given is to refocus their efforts on their core MMORPG games and the release of Blade & Soul into China and other Asian markets.  I'll also note that they take their sweet time between closure and refund details in Korea as well since this article came out the 9th and they say that the refund info will be disclosed around the 25th.

News Article
NCSoft Board Game series - the three rightmost games.

[Randomvector]

Somehow I edited out the part where I said Nexon also took a sharp downturn as well.

Nexon seems up today though.

[FatherXmas]

Nexon seems up today though.

Yes but they have a much smaller exposure to the Korean market than NCsoft.  Nexon makes almost half of their sales revenue in China since the start of 2012 while Korean sales shrank 20% in 3Q YoY.  A special "tax" on in country games sales would impact NCsoft more than Nexon.  You are also talking the Japan exchange for Nexon versus the Korean exchange for NCsoft.  I imagine the debate on the new "for the children" game laws being discussed is a major news piece in Korea where in Japan it was just factored in once since it's "overseas" news.

And it only made up half it's losses from the day before.

[Artillerie]

This is interesting stuff. Does anyone have any information on other Korean games companies and whether the new legislation is affecting them as well? Could be useful for comparison.

[RandomUnicorn]

hmm interesting, could it have been possible that due to these things being thrown around in the government that ncsoft may have shut down coh due that?

while the shutting down was still a bad move for them instead of trying to sell, i think this might have been what prompted the sudden shutdown notice

so thinking about it a minute:

1. ncsoft sees that stuff against the gaming industry is up in government
2. ncsoft predicts that this will cause a loss for all games so it wants to chop off "dead weight"
3. ncsoft knee jerkingly chooses coh to shut down
4. coh shutdown prompts massive public backlash
5. ncsoft continually responds to community questioning with lies and incompetence

this could eventually lead to ncsoft selling off the IP to get us off their back while they try to fight this stuff in their government and not lose any more face than they already have, especially with the continual stock drops they have been having

since this is all speculation, still having "wait and see" attitude for the time being

The Korean government is the one imposing the bans and curfews, thus out of all of NCSoft's games CoH would be the least effected since it is not sold in Korea and all available information suggests there were no plans to do so.

1. ncsoft sees that stuff against the gaming industry is up in THE KOREAN government
2. ncsoft predicts that this will cause a loss for all games EXCEPT COH.

2a. NCSOFT EXECS PANIC AND GO ON A MASSIVE DRINKING AND DRUG BINGE. This leads them to make bad decisions the following morning when...

3. ncsoft knee jerkingly chooses coh to shut down
4. coh shutdown prompts massive public backlash
5. ncsoft continually responds to community questioning with lies and incompetence

[FatherXmas]

Well this current round of legislation is due to the new President that was elected in Korea a few weeks ago.  He was very aligned with the whole video game addiction climate that has been growing in Korea.  Maybe nationwide test scores are slipping because I haven't heard of any recent players dieing or allowing a family member to die due to gaming but it's a problem that's been in the public eye for a decade now.

[Artillerie]

Just saw this in a post on Save City of Heroes FB, don't think it's been mentioned here yet so...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/markets-korea-stocks-idUSL4N0AE2UK20130109

Some very interesting comments about NCSoft.

[Atlantea]

"We advise cutting losses on NCsoft - we see continued cannibalization of existing games and at best moderate success for new games in China," Morgan Stanley analyst Sam Min wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

THAT - right there - that needs to go viral.

[mikenovember]

THAT - right there - that needs to go viral.

That... already is.  Morgan Stanley advises you cut your losses and all the Korean market advisors in the world will no stave you. 

They gave a bleak picture of NC's current holdings, and closed of prospects for their largest market.  The run on NCSoft stock will be a bleading death by 1,000 cuts. 

[FatherXmas]

As I said in the other thread, that explains today's drop.

So is MS taking the contrarian position going from outperform to underperform since the vast majority of analysts are still bullish on the stock, even though they've been quietly lowering sales and profit estimates.

[TonyV]

So is MS taking the contrarian position going from outperform to underperform since the vast majority of analysts are still bullish on the stock, even though they've been quietly lowering sales and profit estimates.

What the hell does Steve Ballmer have to do with the...

Oh, right.

Personally, I think the financial analysts are finally catching up to what we've known for a few months now.  To which I can only say, booyah.

[Illusionss]

Just saw this in a post on Save City of Heroes FB, don't think it's been mentioned here yet so...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/markets-korea-stocks-idUSL4N0AE2UK20130109

Some very interesting comments about NCSoft.

Nope.... luckily I am not inclined to get to attached to GW2 anyways, but even if I was I'd rethink that in light of these comments at the link.

This company is seriously in trouble, and I can scarcely contain my delight.