I have discussed the state of NCSoft with a few people in game - one thing I didn't realize before is Nexion's part in all of this. It changes things drastically.
If NCSoft is indeed trying to make itself attractive for investment or a buyout, their aim will be to cut costs without harming their portfolio. In other words, they MUST hang on to the City of Heroes IP, because selling it shrinks their portfolio. But operating it costs probably more than any other game they have (due to the semi-independent Paragon Studios in high-salary California) so the IP is more valuable than the game itself. CoH is more valuable to NCSoft dead than alive.
That means getting NCSoft to sell is going to be very difficult to near impossible, UNLESS their investors (Nexion) can be convinced that the company will be just as or more valuable without it. This means a DOUBLE negotiation to make it happen, which is far less likely, and may be the reason Paragon seems to be failing to gain independence.
Interesting. It always puzzles me that a company would be considered valuable for an IP they've actively damaged by shutting down its customer base. But if it's a buy-out NCSoft wants, then there are a number of things one could potentially do.
1) Offer them enough for that IP that the "hit" to their portfolio (and reduction in their cost-to-be-bought) would not be any greater than the amount they'd make from selling the IP.
2) Talk to Nexion or other potential investors in NCSoft, and persuade them to hint that a functioning profit-making IP is more attractive than one that's sitting idle and likely to lose its customer base due to inactivity.
3) Look into finding a buyer for all of NCSoft. This is a huge long-shot, as NCSoft is not going to be inexpensive. It would also not be nearly the profitable maneuver that simply acquiring CoH and all relevant properties would be, since it would involve all the extra "dead weight" if one did not go in with the goal of really owning and running ALL of NCSoft's games. I am not certain that it would be any healthier for NCSoft to be run from America than it is for Paragon Studios to be run from Korea.
4) Attempt to form that company (preferably Paragon Studios's name, at least, and employees and such) independently of NCSoft and license the IP. This is a stop-gap, however, because if NCSoft is bought out, the potential loss of the license could put us right back where we now are. It would, however, at least give us room to be negotiating directly with the end decision-maker that NCSoft is trying to court.
Option 4) seems the most likely to work, to me, though I would prefer 2 or 3, personally. 3) would be a strange one, and may result in putting others in the position CoH fans now face. So, looking at 4), if NCSoft's main concern is having the IP without having to pay to keep it running, a nominal licensing fee should be negotiable.
Licensing is pretty much the only way to go here now. NCSoft that way can show to investors that they still have the IP in their portfolio, and they also don't bear any of the operating cost. The licensing percentage is good for NCSoft, but irrelevant to an investor, so it could be called a fallback measure to keep NC's profits up until it does find investment.
So it's an arrangement highly benificial to NCSoft, with one caveat: It's possible that the family running NCSoft wants out, and that's why they're making it attractive for a buyout. If that's true, they will not want any contracts, licensing or otherwise, tying them down; because everything they're doing is to maximize the amount of cash they walk away with at the end of the buyout process.
In this case, if it's just "the family" that owns it that wants to cash out, buying the IP won't hurt if we can offer enough to cover the 'shortfall' it would cause in the buy-out price.
It's still worthwhile to try, though, and if I could contact the Paragon business team, that's what I would suggest they pitch as well.
One huge caution though: If NCSoft does get bought out, or heavily leveraged, it's highly possible City of Heroes will be shut down way earlier than the Nov 30th ending date - possibly as early as Sep 30th, since it's the end of the quarter. So if we're aiming for an operations licensing deal, we're running out of time.
Side note: I think NCSoft knows what I'm up to. I tried to get the contact info of their Business Affairs contact, and they won't even give that to me. They have effectively tried to turn and blind eye/ear to any offers, but I'll see if I can get through anyway.
Hm. I have also gotten nothing from the people there I've tried to contact, even through highly-regarded business networking methods.
Is their CEO part of the "owning family?" It may be worthwhile to directly contact him if so.
Is there indication that Nexon is likely to buy more of a share in NCSoft, or is this just speculation based on them buying up to nearly 15% in June?