Author Topic: MMORPG - COH profitability  (Read 88675 times)

Samuraiko

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2013, 05:33:12 PM »
Part of me wants to believe this... and part of me doesn't trust "anonymous sources" any farther than I can throw them. I just... no. It comes across too much as exactly what they're claiming they don't want to do - 'vilify NCsoft.' And I'm jaded enough as it is to take ANY news article these days without a serious grain of salt.

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TonyV

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2013, 05:34:59 PM »
Oh, and I hope I can say this now, but I feel at least a little bit vindicated.  :)  Some people have floated the notion that I've been making up some of the stuff I've been saying when I invoke the mysterious "insider source."  And to be fair, I hate, hate, hate invoking the mysterious "insider source," precisely because of that reason--because I can't back up what I'm saying, and I'm depending on my reputation instead of facts.  Truth be known, it doesn't make me mad when someone says, "We don't really know for sure that what you're saying is true," because I'm pretty skeptical myself when someone tells me, "Just trust me, I know this."

At least now, hopefully some of those folks will believe that William Murphy at MMORPG.com wouldn't just make stuff up, and that lends some credence to the notion that some of these "insider sources" I've been talking about are, in fact, real.

I'm still hopeful that even more may come out in time, as it's been a pretty durn wild and interesting ride the past several months.

WildFire15

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2013, 05:39:14 PM »
The last bullet point from the source confuses me. It says Paragon wanted to get away from NCsoft as they were becoming more difficult to deal with yet this last point says NCsoft 'really tried' to work with Paragon. Any thoughts on what happened there?

Terwyn

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2013, 05:41:03 PM »
It seems quite likely that NCSoft may well have taken Paragon's attempts to buy itself out as an insult, really.

It had been mentioned to me by those who were probably in a position to know that someone at Paragon, or Paragon itself, did something to seriously irritate/offend/annoy NCSoft, and it may well have been the attempt to buy-out.
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Starsman

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2013, 05:53:02 PM »
Part of me wants to believe this... and part of me doesn't trust "anonymous sources" any farther than I can throw them. I just... no. It comes across too much as exactly what they're claiming they don't want to do - 'vilify NCsoft.' And I'm jaded enough as it is to take ANY news article these days without a serious grain of salt.

Michelle
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Actually, it did not come out as vilifying until NCSoft replied denying it. Well, the 80 million price tag may be a bit vilifying but that would have been it.

It is when NCSoft replies saying it is all a lie that the poster is pit as vilifying NCSoft for it's statement.

I trust some of it, not sure about the 80m thing, but I bet the "anonymous source" is at least verified as a reliable source of information by Rob Lashley (the one that talked to him on the phone.) I doubt he would sacrifice his journalistic integrity by taking anyone's word for granted.
For the sake of the community: please stop the cultural "research" in your attempt to put blame on the game's cancelation.

It's sickening to see the community sink that low. It's worse to see the community does not get it.

I'm signing off and taking a break, blindly hope things change.

TonyV

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2013, 05:57:26 PM »
The last bullet point from the source confuses me. It says Paragon wanted to get away from NCsoft as they were becoming more difficult to deal with yet this last point says NCsoft 'really tried' to work with Paragon. Any thoughts on what happened there?

Paragon tried to work with NCsoft to re-form under their own banner and acquire the property once it became clear that shutting down the studio was a possibility.

dwturducken

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2013, 06:02:38 PM »
I thought Murphy was quoting an anonymous insider at NCSoft. He was working from another writer's notes in making the bullet points. Plus, we kind of now have independent (from Titan, anyway) confirmation that the earnings reports and NCSoft's claims are inconsistent, to say the least.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Perfidus

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #27 on: January 04, 2013, 06:03:20 PM »
This wasn't what I wanted to read this afternoon. I feel sick to my stomach.

To arms, ladies and gents. Whether we like it or not, the average person will believe what NCSoft said over what Paragon's anonymous source said. We have to be the ones to make sure that doesn't happen.

UruzSix

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #28 on: January 04, 2013, 06:14:48 PM »
Part of me wants to believe this... and part of me doesn't trust "anonymous sources" any farther than I can throw them. I just... no. It comes across too much as exactly what they're claiming they don't want to do - 'vilify NCsoft.' And I'm jaded enough as it is to take ANY news article these days without a serious grain of salt.

Michelle
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There's one side, there's the other, and somewhere in the middle is the truth. Can't remember who said that but its pretty a good guideline.

To be honest, the biggest thing in the article was NCSoft flat out saying City was 'unprofitable'.  Not 'not profitable enough', not 'barely breaking even', not 'not in our future plans'.  That's a pretty bold statement to make to the public there. The $64,000 question is: How much did NCSoft invest into City of Heroes over the lifetime of the game, how much money did they get back over that same period, and how much were they planning on getting back over the coming years? For that, though, I'd need Denny Crane and a magical wand of Discovery.

Also, hi. :)

TimtheEnchanter

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #29 on: January 04, 2013, 06:15:42 PM »
So after all that reading, it almost seemed to close by making the point that none of it matters.

Uttering the phrase, "It's just business", needs to become illegal. So sick of it being used to excuse every heinous thing that corporations do.

Ironwolf

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2013, 06:38:13 PM »
Can you possibily imagine the 3 leads at Paragon wanting to buy the studio and continue to run the game if it was losing money?

The thing is someone finally did speak and showed how the game closure may have been a smackdown of the studio for daring to try to form a buyout.

chasearcanum

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2013, 06:44:18 PM »
some things I'd like to relay to the author:

1) The studio was 80 people in size, but the # of people committed to only CoH will be notably less than that, since they were working on anothreturned off the profitability of that product, not a piggybacked burden off the original product.  That also means that they could have just killed off the new project without any risk to the new one.

2) MMO's are expensive to launch and develop, but less so to maintain.  The initial investment costs of CoH had been well paid off.  Outside the costs for the studio maintaining it, there's primarily the NOC and hosting costs (server maintenance & bandwidth) to contend with.  There are many books & articles written by members in the industry explaining the costs of operations and the breakdown, and, while not insignificant, the NOC, hosting, maintenance, and bandwidth are minimal.  The studio's costs really would have been the biggest single expenditure and a decent metric to use for simple discussion.

3) "..., but that profit margin was likely shrinking through Q3 (the game was omitted from that report)..."  Q3 measured from July through October.  The shutdown was announced Mid-late August.  At that time, no new purchases were made.  Also at that time, subscribers stopped paying and the many subscribers that took multi-month promotions were refunded.   Of COURSE revenue is going to go down in Q3 under those conditions. 

4) Yes, revenue went down between Q1 and Q2... by about 1%.  Compare that to the total revenue decline in the EU/NA market that NCSoft experienced (~-40% iirc) and that seems downright ROSY.  Heck, CoH was the one consistent performer in that timeframe.

5) Yes, CoH earnings were small compared to NCSoft as a whole, but compare their earnings to the earnings of NCSoft in the markets where CoH is available (US/Europe).  There, it was often 20-25% of total revenue.  That sheds light on how NCSoft's other properties performed in those same markets.

6) There is some (probably intentional) obsfucation by both sides here.  For example, maybe NCSoft DID pay only $8m for full ownership of CoH, but it was already a partial owner before that, and we have no idea how the ownership proportions were at that point (5%, 10%, 50%?) which would determine what NCSoft valued the property at when launched.

Similarly, the valuation for tax purposes is always going to be much less than the valuation for sale.   For taxation purposes, there are specific metrics for valuation of a property (note, this is the IP PROPERTY, not the earnings- they $$ earnings is taxed differently).  Oftentimes, a property's sale value is based on the potential earnings of that property for the next several years.  Naturally, its going to be considerably higher.  To compare the two like this is trying to portray NCSoft in a hypocritical light to people that don't know better. (ok, they're still hypocritical... just not for this reason.)

7) NCSoft is unsure of the success of a superhero MMO?  I don't doubt it-- but that should be an indicator on how bad of a match NCSoft was for CoH more than anything.  Look at the superhero films in the top-grossing blockbuster movies of the year.  One of them is even custom-catered to CoH (a team of heroes must repel a giant interdimensional/alien army!).   There has never been a better time to tap into the growing public's imagination and fascination with superheros.

Ironwolf

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #32 on: January 04, 2013, 06:53:54 PM »

CG

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #33 on: January 04, 2013, 06:54:43 PM »
There's one side, there's the other, and somewhere in the middle is the truth. Can't remember who said that but its pretty a good guideline.
The Vorlons?  ;)

The outstanding question I have is why not cut staff and let the game continue in a legacy mode.  I feel bad saying this because it throws the devs under the bus, but I think NCSoft skipped a step in the life cycle of an MMO; no further development, but let it run for a while.

Osborn

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #34 on: January 04, 2013, 07:02:57 PM »
From the article, a quote from NCSoft:

What a load of bull.... so they saying they did find interested parties to acquire the game, but none they considered "suitable" enough to make the fans good, so... NCSoft found it was more humane to euthanize the game than let it live in the hands of some one they thought was not worthy????? W... T... F????

The reason I'm more willing to buy the anonymous source's story is because the 'response' to the story in itself contains 2 lies. One, if the game was unprofitable as long as it was, then sun setting the game would have been a lot more gradual and they wouldn't be ramping up production on new Issues like every 2 months, and it also contains the ridiculous lie that nobody 'suitable' tried to buy the game.

At NO point did they try to save money on the game. They didn't cut it down to a skeleton crew or slow down on publishing Issues. That sort of thing a sane person would do to slow down the bleeding of the game, for the supposed several years it was unprofitable?

They're ridiculous.

Little Green Frog

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #35 on: January 04, 2013, 07:07:01 PM »
Perhaps I may be reading too much into it, but NCsoft representative's reply does have a damage control vibe to it. I mean it's whopping two paragraphs! Not even the game closure prompted them to articulate anything more than a couple of smoothed over sentences. And now they effectively argue their point.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2013, 07:53:20 PM by Little Green Frog »

chasearcanum

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #36 on: January 04, 2013, 07:09:45 PM »

dwturducken

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #37 on: January 04, 2013, 07:15:09 PM »
There is something to the spiteful masters theory, if you look at it with the whole Garriot story in mind.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Osborn

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #38 on: January 04, 2013, 07:16:08 PM »
I agree that it becomes increasingly clear that NCSoft and Paragon were a bad match.  merely looking at NCSoft's other product offerings- particularly those in the Asian market- indicates that there were substantial conflicts in philosophy, but this doesn't lead to your conclusion that "peasants dared to negotiate with the Lord."   These kinds of buyouts and business arrangements are rarely hostile and even when they don't work out are more a sign of a healthy workforce. 

I think there were certainly other ways CoH offended the sensibilities of those in charge, but preparing for a studio buyout wouldn't necessarily be one of them.

Yeah, but throw in the culture of NCSoft's home country and it makes a bit more sense.

Businesses like this might change hands all the time in America, sure...

Sounds like a clear case of he said/she said, which is what I've believed all along.  You really have to ask yourself, who do you believe?  A Paragon insider, or NCsoft?  I know that most people here will instantly go to the knee-jerk reaction of, "the Paragon Insider, of course!"  But to be completely fair, you have to acknowledge that both have an agenda: the Paragon insider has recently lost their job thanks to NCsoft, and NCsoft is currently in the midst of trying to staunch a negative publicity campaign against them, striking at the heart of the matter.

The reason I bring that up is because I don't want anyone to think that I'm overly naive or gullible, willing to believe anything that anyone tells me.  I'm well aware of the various politics at play here, and I've spent MANY long nights thinking VERY hard about the possibility that I'm being duped.

Yeah, but so what if you're being duped? It's your money and time on the game, right? Even if CoH was a giant massive failure, then release the code and let it be your problem. If the 'reality' of the situation was that CoH was bleeding cash every second then it makes even more sense for NCSoft to squeeze out a last million or whatever from the property and let people like you bang your head against trying to make it work.

If it turned out that NCSoft is totally legit and they 'tried everything' even though they've turned down every reasonable offer immediately and only then after we had to scream and throw a fit to get them to even answer the phone, and the game was losing money, that would be your problem, not theirs.

They could look like a hero donating the game for only 'tiny' sum of a million dollars to the studio then wash their hands of it.

And in the end, based on the best information I have, I've decided that I believe the people I know at Paragon Studios over NCsoft.  I've met them personally, they don't have as much at stake by simply staying silent (and indeed, some of them have put their reputations and quite possibly financial well-being at stake by coming forward, even as an anonymous source), I've heard very similar accounts from multiple people, they've historically proven to be honest and reliable, and not to put too fine a point on it, their version of events makes more sense to me than a publisher completely shutting down a studio like it did instead of making cuts and layoffs that could have restored it to profitability.

Yeah. It is a case of he-said, she-said, but who gains to lose or gain? Paragon Studios is gone, it doesn't really have much to gain from a hatchet fight with NCSoft. If anything it'd want their resumes be good. So why would Paragon be trying so hard to acquire an IP they know isn't worth squat, willing to throw good money and their careers at it? If it wasn't worth at least something.

Perhaps I may be reading to much into it, but NCsoft representative's reply does have a damage control vibe to it. I mean it's whopping two paragraphs! Not even the game closure prompted them to articulate anything more than a couple of smoothed over sentences. And now they are effectively argue their point.

Yeah, I might be more inclined to believe them if icy silence wasn't their answer to everything for like, months straight. And then their response after that wasn't just complete saccharine political sort of BS.

They didn't even have a response system in place for people who bought things near the closure announcement or for VIP play time and what not until like.. what, a month or so in?

That doesn't scream an awareness of the game being unprofitable. Either that or they're just STRAIGHT UP incompetent. Neither is a very pretty picture for NCSoft to be painted in.

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Re: MMORPG - COH profitability
« Reply #39 on: January 04, 2013, 07:22:09 PM »
Amazing...
Well, now that NCSoft has apparently decided to talk (claiming nonprofitability), maybe some non-anonymous sources may be safe in coming out with their information.
I mean, if NCSoft actually has come out talking numbers... And if those numbers and claims are untrue... Should everyone else feel the need to be quiet about it?
I certainly don't want to see anyone's hire-ability and trustworthiness within the industry be damaged. However, if there are ways and truths that counter what NCSoft had just claimed, perhaps it'll be okay to openly speak about it.

I agree with many of the assessments above in this thread.
The facts that they didn't cut things before simply shutting down entirely...
That they're so UNSURE about a superhero genre!!!
That they claim to have failed to find buyers that would treat us fans well enough (ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? I'm finally angered again by them now)...
That all adds up to some serious doubting about NCSoft's reply to this news.

« Last Edit: January 04, 2013, 10:47:50 PM by Electric-Knight »
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