IMO what you're seeing in NCSoft's current share prices is another example of the extreme volatility they've been subject to ever since the massive climb the company's shares had in late 2008. 4 of their 5 MMO closures have happened since then, but you'd be hard pushed to find their whereabouts on the stock graph if you're looking for simple cause and effect.
As far as I can see, the biggest single kick their shares had came from the launch of Aion - the definitive NCSoft grinder. But times have changed since then - the Korean domestic market is beginning to burn out on a the vast glut of hi-tech they've been swamped with. Not so long ago, mobile phone internet in Korea was sneered at as a joke - why should a customer use an i-device when they have lightning fast cable both at home, and in practically every shop they wander into on the high street?
And yet, here we are just a few years later and 2/3 of Koreans have just such an i-device, and are
already burning out to the point where news stories are popping up about people rediscovering a desire for analogue and things they can actually hold in their hands instead of simply see on a screen. Remember too that NCSoft CEO Kim's wife is somewhat of a tech egghead and was pioneering mobile communication technology in Korea before she joined NCSoft and married Kim in 2007.
Life and culture and technology in Korea is changing rapidly - and that is reflected in the country's stockmarket, and especially in tech companies like NCSoft. It's very tempting to wonder if the high they enjoyed in October 2011 (the highest peak in the company's history) may well be their last.
Guild Wars 2 gave the shares a decent hike, but now the share price is back to what it was at the beginning of August, way before GW2 came out. Will the launch of Blade and Soul in the west kick the shares up? I very much doubt it...even if they got a rush from the 'one-handed playstyle' neckbeard community rushing out to buy it, the whole game is just too...Korean for the western market. Even if it wasn't full of grotesque women, the underlying feel is too culturally adrift to bridge the gap. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it failed in exactly the same way and for the same reasons that "City of Hero" failed in Korea.
Which is ironic really - I swear that man never learns from mistakes. I'm coming to believe Kim's entire motivation for the company is
Teh Shiny!!!1. And once something's lost its shiny, he just doesn't give a stuff.
Trouble is for him, there may not be many shinies left. He can only realign the focus of his company so far before it either ends up back where it started, or he just breaks the focusing knob entirely.
Sure, they may want to focus on mobile platforms, especially since the government in Korea has actually started passing laws to curb the time children are allowed to play online games, but who's to say Korea's insanely fast consumption of technology isn't already predicting a decline in i-device games and a move back towards people actually...god forbid...
talking to each other - in person! And reading...books! And listening to vinyl!
(apologies for WALL OF TEXT CRITS FOR 500!" - I'm old, I tend to ramble a lot
)
NC-Softcore
LOL!! Quote of the Month! Dare I incorporate that into my next cartoon panel I wonder?
