I'd have to disagree with you on a couple points, but I would love to hear your thoughts and if you can counter what I know.
I'm sure that you have as much of an adoration for language as I do - particularly the English language, and how it lends itself to all sorts of creative play on words. I love the quirks of the language.
I'm minded of this because of two perfect examples of these quirks. I have always been amused that 'common sense' is generally good sense that is anything but common, whilst 'common knowledge' is usually very common, and not knowledge at all.
The points you raise are all what I call 'conventional wisdom' which is very much akin to comon knowledge. It tends to be much more conventional than it is wise.
Yes, there is a massive growth in portable computing, but in large part this is in the capabilities rather than the divisions of market. Smart phones and tablets are getting smarter, and more capable of handling software that formerly only actual computers could possibly have managed. At the same time, realising that there are far more people with phones than with computers, companies have been striving to create leaner code that is better for this market - streaming video, java games, cloud hosting, and so on.
However, there are not actually any less desktop and laptop computers than there were. There are more. Its simply that people won't be as keen to upgrade their PC or laptop because, right now, they are just itching for the iPads and smart-phones a bit more. There are more PCs than ever, but people are making them last a bit longer.
Go into any gamers forum, facebook group, etc, and you'll find people showing off pictures of their latest gaming PC. Not their iPad or cell phone. Gamers like gaming rigs. Those are desktops, or better yet, full towers with lots of lights and fans. Something that can run for 48 hrs straight without needing to reboot, and certainly without overheating. Laptops are a little more casual, and for those who don't have the dedicated space for a gaming machine.
Yes, in the long term, the future of computing is about having it with you everywhere. I'd certainly suggest you have a look at Google Glass and other projects - mainly focused on making smart-glass and devices that are portable but hook into everything, giving everyone a sort of HUD aspect to information anywhere. But mainly the portable devices rely more than ever on a central hub somewhere. A Home PC server at the core that acts as the center and server for everything.
Meanwhile, the PC market isn't standing still either. Graphics are getting better and better, and customers expectations of graphics are rising. We expect our games to be full multi-media experiences now, with almost film-realistic quality visuals, great soundtracks, and professional actors. This is why a lot of investment has moved from PC games and console games into mobile/java app games. They have far lower expectations and are far, far cheaper to develop.
The PC gaming industry is fast becoming the new Movie Industry, with big budget productions that take years to complete. And if some are speculating that mobile is the end of the PC era, please remember back to when Betamax was claimed to be the end of cinema, and that within a few years all movies would be straight to home video. Don't hold your breath.
The 'truism' of the gaming industry regarding MMOs being over is just the final realisation that just because they all
wanted to be the next WoW, never ever meant that every game
could be WoW. One of the best things about CoH is that it predates WoW. It was a game made before the only motive for making an MMO was to be as successful as WoW. Instead, it was a game made to be a great game, a game made by and for people that love games. A game that won awards and pioneered and innovated. It was perhaps the last quality production made without investors basing the whole thing on mass-market appeal and a need to compare itself with WoW.
As you so rightly say, even WoW doesn't compare with WoW anymore. Its become a cliche of itself, playing its own cameo role of the worlds greatest geek MMO. Market share has declined largely because there is so very much choice competing for that same market. There's always a new shiney MMO that is attracting not new customers, but players of the other MMOs.
But here's what they don't say. Great games are what matters. And gameplay trumps graphics. Seriously, how many games other than an MMO has ever maintained player interest week after week for more than a year? Other than a group of guys gathering for Poker Night, not a lot.
Modern marketing and business is increasingly short-term. Ridiculously so. Everything is about the short term, and long term vision is no longer than a 5 year plan. Noone builds businesses thinking of empires to hand to their children anymore. Yes, this short-sightedness has caused the current economic woes, and it still hasn't changed. And this same 'big business' mentality is now what steers gaming too. What point in a game that lasts longer than the CPU that runs it? No game should be expected to have a life expectancy greater than the current technology, right?
They do not understand that some of us still enjoy firing up the original Sid Meirs Civillization and relishing that it had terrible graphics and superb gameplay. That we still are delighted to sometimes play the old games on a PS1, or even consider finding older games.
None of those pundits can tell you what we all know. That CoH is better today, after 8 years of play and development, than it was when it was first out. They cannot possibly comprehend that City is a game built on pride and passion for what could be built, not the desire to make a fast buck.
Remember that the intellectual property of City is not just the current game. City of Heroes is so much more than just its code. City of Heroes for the mobile is only possible with that IP. The CoH movie many people in the forums said they'd love to see? Only possible with the IP. More City of Books? Spin-off games of the PPD SWAT team, The game of the last days of the Kheldians? ALL dependant on that IP.
That's why I say the value of such is largely about what one wants to do with it. And what parts of it one is buying. Most buyers might want the lot even though they are only thinking of one part of use. NCsoft have a board of directors who's job it is to consider all possible uses and values of their IP. Right now, that's why I think they value it more highly than others do.
As for IP dating and degrading ... well, recently Robert Downey Junior made 2 films in a series that had nothing to do with Iron Man. There's a TV show called Elementary starring Lucy Liu that's also based on the same IP as the films I was mentioning. And an absolutely brilliant British TV show based on the same much used and ancient IP has been a massive success. So, tell me how much the value of Sherlock Holmes has decreased with time.
How about the current series of Red Dwarf X in the UK?
Was the Christian Bale batman worth less than the Keaton one, and less still than the Adam West version?
As a writer, you more than anyone are aware that great ideas last forever.
(And as an aside, that's a perfect moment to tell you how much I adored MZB ever since I first read my very first Darkover story)