NCSoft Stockwatch

[LadyShin]

"Right now they have seen the best GW2 is ever going to do.  BS is tanking.  Wildstar is nowhere to be found.  Would you buy their stock based on that?"
-- DarkCurrent

Yeah, lemme answer that this way...

Today's stock ticker...

Funny, 2013 looks a lot like 2012!!!

Edit: Looks like the last bit going up and down is showing investors are scrambling to salvage their earnings, however they simply don't have enough capital to make a difference ... Few options now, do investors hang on to their stocks and go down with the company or do they cut their losses and move on to another investment?

I'll be over here while they debate, listening to the Top Gun Anthem.   

[Colette]

Well, the problem with selling a crashing stock is finding a buyer. So the Derpster up there is trying to help them out by encouraging people to buy. Isn't she sweet?

[Illusionss]

I know people are saying not to read too much into fluctuating stocks.

I just know that if I owned a company with a graph like that attached to its performance, I would be none too pleased. Just saying.

[JaguarX]

Hmmm depends on how big my "parachute" is.

If it's not big at all, I'd be pissed. If nice sized and the size that the old GM CEO got for being booted, I probably wouldnt give a damn.

Nah, my heart is too big. I'd be upset at myself for failing and letting the workers that depended on that work down. I'd give up  "parachute" if it means people still can keep their jobs and start from top down instead of bottom up if I have to cut people out. Why? The bottom rings probably have a lot riding on their paycheck while the higher ups problems are more in the lines of "oh well, no new Maserati this week. MY WORLD IS ENDING!!!" That's just me, and probably would be kicked (voted out if public corporation) out if I tried that and the bottom ring people probably will still lose their jobs.

[TonyV]

Boom, now under ₩130,000.  That's over 60% off their 52-week high.  Father Xmas makes some valid points about companies not being run according to stock price, but you can't deny that it does have an effect.  If I were a stockholder right now, I'd be VERY pissed off and demanding that the company do something to stop the bleeding of my money.  I'm just sayin'...

[JaguarX]

Boom, now under ₩130,000.  That's over 60% off their 52-week high.  Father Xmas makes some valid points about companies not being run according to stock price, but you can't deny that it does have an effect.  If I were a stockholder right now, I'd be VERY pissed off and demanding that the company do something to stop the bleeding of my money.  I'm just sayin'...

Yep. Short term investors (aka ones that invested the past1-3 years) are probably very upset.

I think it has to reach a it lower to affect the long-term and usually large stake holder's anger threshold. But even with the prices slipping they have to do something. Although I havea feeling I wont like what they probably will do to try and stop the bleeding (i.e laying off more workers).


Still waiting for it to reach just a little lower and seeing if there might be a chance of an upswing. I might be waiting a while.

[DarkCurrent]

128.5

I'd say Carbine Studios is getting really nervous right about now.

[Colette]

Oh dear! It's continuing the dive from yesterday. Even if it levels, that's a drop of 10 in a single day.

[TimtheEnchanter]

[JaguarX]

lol. It seems so with alot of casualties. Except inthis case doubt the Captain will go down with the ship. Probably will be on the first life boat out of there.

[SerialBeggar]

Does it offer a dividend at least?

[Axonius]

 Do we know how their stock is doing relative it's countries economy? (Or relative to its most financially dependent country?) Relative to it's peers?

Just trying to get the whole picture to keep us from making too many assumptions.

[TimtheEnchanter]

Do we know how their stock is doing relative it's countries economy? (Or relative to its most financially dependent country?) Relative to it's peers?

I'd guess the nuclear test threats aren't helping any.

[DarkCurrent]

It's like a limbo tournament.

How low can you go?

125K so far today.  51% loss in the last year.  Those Nexon fools are probably kicking themselves.

[Blue Pulsar]

Oh, it will go lower... Mhh mhh... Muh Muah! Hah! Hah! hah hah ha ha....

Toldya....

Edit: Currently w126,000. Up 1k from it's daily and yearly low.

[Illusionss]

128.5

I'd say Carbine Studios is getting really nervous right about now.

They'd better be thinking about the best way to GTFO. I would be, anyways.

Carbine is probably next on the chopping block, then I WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED to see another of NCSoft's older games get the axe. Which one? Dunno, but profitability alone will not save it. If they want it gone its gone, and be damned to the money. We dont need money, and dont ask why we're closing! Let's just only remember the good things, shall we?

What a bunch of dyed-in-the-wool geniuses. LOL!

[Perfidus]

They'd probably take Lineage 2 out of the western market like they did the first one, if anything. Or cancel B&S coming here or something.

[Twisted Toon]

Hmmm depends on how big my "parachute" is.

If it's not big at all, I'd be pissed. If nice sized and the size that the old GM CEO got for being booted, I probably wouldnt give a damn.

Nah, my heart is too big. I'd be upset at myself for failing and letting the workers that depended on that work down. I'd give up  "parachute" if it means people still can keep their jobs and start from top down instead of bottom up if I have to cut people out. Why? The bottom rings probably have a lot riding on their paycheck while the higher ups problems are more in the lines of "oh well, no new Maserati this week. MY WORLD IS ENDING!!!" That's just me, and probably would be kicked (voted out if public corporation) out if I tried that and the bottom ring people probably will still lose their jobs.

In your defense, you would probably have never let your company get that bad in the first place.

[JaguarX]

In your defense, you would probably have never let your company get that bad in the first place.

yeah.

[FatherXmas]

Boom, now under ₩130,000.  That's over 60% off their 52-week high.  Father Xmas makes some valid points about companies not being run according to stock price, but you can't deny that it does have an effect.  If I were a stockholder right now, I'd be VERY pissed off and demanding that the company do something to stop the bleeding of my money.  I'm just sayin'...

They announced some management changes (including new CPO).  I guess investors didn't like the sound of that.  Or the chorus of "just wait unit B&S and GW2 get to China" was getting old.  They are also saying they are going to be rolling out a lot of mobile games this year as well as well as just wait for Wildstar.  They also said there will be a GW2 paid expansion later this year.

What the quarter boiled down to, ignoring GW2, is that NCsoft's best game from a sales standpoint is their oldest, which is 15 years old.  Lineage II is more popular outside of Korea than in it.  Aion is showing a boom/bust cycle (sales off 36.5% in Korea from 2011 to 2012).  B&S numbers are down in it's 2nd full quarter and it's only available in Korea plus it only seems to draw players from NCsoft's other games.  So is NCsoft at it's core a one hit wonder.

Never looked at this before but here's a breakdown of game income by game from just Korea.

Lineage - 92.9%
Lineage II - 40.3%
Aion - 75.5%
B&S - 100% (only in Korea)
GW2 - 0% (not in Korea or anywhere in Asia ... yet)

According to the weekly charts in Korea, NCsoft still has the number 2, 3 and 4 MMORPG in Korea last week.  It's possible that the MMORPG market in Korea is now saturated.  That's probably why they are so hot about getting into China.

It also looks like several more analysts lowered their sales guestimate for NCsoft for 2013 and 2014.  But they haven't changed from their Buy or Outperform rating for the stock.

Back when Aion came out, NCsoft became the new hot girl all the guys wanted to hook up with and now it looks like word got out that she's psycho ex-girlfriend material and everyone to trying to flee.