NCSoft Stockwatch

[dwturducken]

I gotta back Segev up on this. I was in the navy 15 years ago, and it was "greener" than a Subaru plant claims to be. On the other hand, we parked a dozen nuclear power plants within sight of major metropolitan areas. We had a loaded gun pointed at our own heads, in so many ways, and it would have been collaterally messy if it went off.

The military has a bad rep from the sheer scale of the incidents that do happen when really the day to day is much more benign. It's no Googleplex, by any stretch, but the conservation and "green" policies came out of military and tactical necessity, rather than political correctness.  That said, you would be amazed at the level of technology being used to run those nuclear power plants, but the emphasis is on having reliable equipment, which would not be the case if it were run from, say, a netbook running Windows.

[srmalloy]

LOL. Nice typo. I need to start referring to certain stocks as "sediment".

I'm reminded of the chemistry variant of an old aphorism...

"If you aren't part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate."

[TimtheEnchanter]

It goes right back to the business vs. government policy of blame.

Business is expected to be heartless, while government has to be politically correct.

I know manufacturing plants have gotten flak... but this fiasco about bases in SK seems quite the hypocrisy, and at best, is probably just political propaganda.

[FatherXmas]

See I've had the misfortune to live close to a number of closed bases that later were declared EPA Superfund sites due to the water and soil contamination there.

I'm sure today military bases are the poster child of environmental responsibility but that doesn't magically fix a problem that stemmed from activities and practices from the 50s through 80s where stopping those "Ruskies" was always priority one.

[JaguarX]

See I've had the misfortune to live close to a number of closed bases that later were declared EPA Superfund sites due to the water and soil contamination there.

I'm sure today military bases are the poster child of environmental responsibility but that doesn't magically fix a problem that stemmed from activities and practices from the 50s through 80s where stopping those "Ruskies" was always priority one.

Yeah they had a major issue with the local German EPA equivalent when it was found an old gasoline tank at a fuel point been neglected and was leaking into the soil. That was lot of Euros on the line and alot of backdoor political stuff because part of the agreement of that land was basically to take care of it and not pollute it. You think the US EPA is nuts about stuff, try out the German EPA and it makes the US version look like heavy somking industrialists, at least when it comes to non-local entities.

A lot of military bases have infrastructure that is old as dirt and been around since the 40s-70s. Even here in the states on a base, they tore down housing that still used abestos and mold issues and had people living in it up to it even as recent as 2012. It took them that long to finally fix the problem. The army is now going "green" but lot of stuff hanging around since the old days because the military is basically excempt from many EPA regulations, although now they are more complying with them not out of sheer love for the environment but more so for political and in many cases after hindsight, mission standards.

But I tell you if the fish hit the shampoo, all bets will be off again until things cool down and they get around to it again in 3 or 4 decades.

[Kosmos]

See I've had the misfortune to live close to a number of closed bases that later were declared EPA Superfund sites due to the water and soil contamination there.

I'm sure today military bases are the poster child of environmental responsibility but that doesn't magically fix a problem that stemmed from activities and practices from the 50s through 80s where stopping those "Ruskies" was always priority one.

The issues with pollution on US military bases had almost nothing to do with priorities. It is mostly a result of the military, and everyone else, being ignorant of what sort of long term health hazard certain chemicals posed. Since the US military is huge, has been for 70+ years, uses lots of heavy machinery, and likes to keep that machinery clean, they used lots of degreasers. And those degreasers that were used willy-nilly have subsequently been found to pose long term environmental health risks. As a result of this fact, many bases - particularly old/closed bases - have pollution issues.

[dwturducken]

See I've had the misfortune to live close to a number of closed bases that later were declared EPA Superfund sites due to the water and soil contamination there.

I'm sure today military bases are the poster child of environmental responsibility but that doesn't magically fix a problem that stemmed from activities and practices from the 50s through 80s where stopping those "Ruskies" was always priority one.

Bearing in mind that this was around the same timeframe when you could buy an Erector set with a Geiger counter and a small chunk of Uranium.

http://www.burlingamepezmuseum.com/bannedtoy/fivetoone.html

[Kosmos]

Bearing in mind that this was around the same timeframe when you could buy an Erector set with a Geiger counter and a small chunk of Uranium.

http://www.burlingamepezmuseum.com/bannedtoy/fivetoone.html

That toy is comical. The ignorant fear that caused it to be banned is just sad.

I know of number of people who study radiation effects for a living, and they occasionally bring up that toy when lamenting the ignorance of the general public when it comes to radiation. Here's a link one sent me not too long ago.

If you decide to put granite counter tops in your kitchen you're probably exposing your kids to more radiation than giving each of them one of these sets would. Moving to Denver would increase their exposure to radiation far more than letting them sleep with the Atomic Energy Laboratory under their pillow would. BAN GRANITE! EVACUATE THE ROCKIES!!!

I wish NCSoft would do something equally stupid. I really want to be able to refer to their investor sediment. Too bad we can't convince people exposure to NCSoft is a health hazard.

[dwturducken]

As a former nuclear reactor operator, I'm not gonna be signing any petitions to bring that one back to ToysRUs, but I would be OK with it in a high school physics class. Give it the same security that raw sodium gets.

[MakoMako]

A lot of military bases have infrastructure that is old as dirt and been around since the 40s-70s. Even here in the states on a base, they tore down housing that still used abestos and mold issues and had people living in it up to it even as recent as 2012. It took them that long to finally fix the problem. The army is now going "green" but lot of stuff hanging around since the old days because the military is basically excempt from many EPA regulations, although now they are more complying with them not out of sheer love for the environment but more so for political and in many cases after hindsight, mission standards.

Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi. There's a rather amusing building called "Jones Hall". Within it there's a room called "Air Room" where the ventilation is recycled. Directly on the door? "WARNING: Asbestos." I only wish they would've let me take a photograph of that.

Anyone that claims that Military bases are so incredibly clean can probably only speak for its internal sanitation. They're cleaned religiously. But the crap pumped out of, especially the older, bases is pretty bad.

[malonkey1]

As a former nuclear reactor operator, I'm not gonna be signing any petitions to bring that one back to ToysRUs, but I would be OK with it in a high school physics class. Give it the same security that raw sodium gets.

Word to that, man.

Also, their recent bump from mid-April appears not to be slowing too much. Bummer.

[JaguarX]

Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi. There's a rather amusing building called "Jones Hall". Within it there's a room called "Air Room" where the ventilation is recycled. Directly on the door? "WARNING: Asbestos." I only wish they would've let me take a photograph of that.

Anyone that claims that Military bases are so incredibly clean can probably only speak for its internal sanitation. They're cleaned religiously. But the crap pumped out of, especially the older, bases is pretty bad.

yeah

[FatherXmas]

Word to that, man.

Also, their recent bump from mid-April appears not to be slowing too much. Bummer.

That's because I believe the Magic 8-Ball analysts use is suggesting that their will be no negative surprise when the numbers come out, likely Tuesday I'm guessing.  The report will point out the 3rd closed beta test in China for B&S as well as the first one their for GW2 as an indication that soon those games will bring in money from that vast, untapped (by NCSOFT) market.

You just need to look at Nexon's 2012 China numbers to see the kind of income potential we're talking about here.

But I'm sure someone somewhere will find something they don't like and jump on it and hype that fact to death.  Spin is spin.

[FatherXmas]

Oops, guessed wrong, numbers are out today.

Sales up 31% from 1Q12 numbers (year over year, YoY).

Lineage, up 51.3% YoY , up 1.8% over 4Q12 (quarter over quarter, QoQ).

Lineage 2, down 22.8% YoY, down 13.6% QoQ.

Aion, down 46.6% YoY, up 12.9%QoQ.

B&S, down 38.7% QoQ.  Still only in Korea.

GW2, down 69.4% QoQ.  Still only in NA and EU.

Other, up 16.2% YoY, down 10.8% QoQ.

Total sales from just L1, L2, Aion, down 5.6% YoY, up 2.0% QoQ.

Last 12 months, sales up 34.1%, profits up 96.3%, profit margin 24.3%.

1Q13 profit margin - 28.3%  1Q12 profit margin - 8.8%.

[dwturducken]

Also, all markets are trending upward, lately. It would be perfectly reasonable for NCSoft to just be "riding a wave," rather than rising on its own merits.

[Segev]

Might be worthwhile to check it in inflation-adjusted money, but that's hard to measure accurately due to what is used as a metric and, more importantly, what isn't.

[FatherXmas]

Might be worthwhile to check it in inflation-adjusted money, but that's hard to measure accurately due to what is used as a metric and, more importantly, what isn't.

For a Korean company, what matters to them is sales and profits in Korean currency.  When was the last time you heard of an American company's sales numbers adjusted first to a foreign currency and then compared.  An overseas division yes, an entire company, no.

[FatherXmas]

Other minor notes.

Looking at just the parent company.  Sales of their big 4 MMOs are up 18.1% YoY (up 16,520 million KrW).  So even though in Korea Aion's huge 49.7% decline in sales (down 21,284 million KrW) and Lineage II's 21.2% decline (down 1,821 million KrW), the addition of B&S's 16,504 million KrW and the massive 57.6% sales increase in Lineage (up 23,121 million KrW).

So B&S actually does represent real MMO market growth in the homeland.  Who would have thought it after the previous two quarters where it looked as if it eating its siblings.

NCSOFT's press release spins that B&S will have a new content update shortly and that should improve sales and the uptick in Aion from 4Q12 to 1Q13 shows that the new V4.0 is reinvigorating the game.  Wildstar's release in the west this fall plus B&S finally launching in China by year's end should keep sales up.  Guild War 2 steep decline is solely due to how it's sold in the west, moving from box sales to cash shop as its major source of income so don't panic.

I don't see anything surprisingly bad in these numbers.  Costs are down, in some cases a lot from the previous quarter.

Sales Chart by game

[NecrotechMaster]

it still bugs me to see ncsoft succeeding, although as stated most of those numbers are coming from just korean gamers not much outside that

im just glad im not feeding the beast that killed us by playing any of their games

[FatherXmas]

Korea represents 64.5% of it's 1Q13 sales.

NA+EU represents 21.3%.  GW2 sales makes up 92.3% of that.

Japan represents 7.0%, Taiwan 1.4% and Royalties 5.8%.

So if you ignore GW2, Korea has 39.5x the sales of NA+EU.

Another interesting note.  Even with GW2 transitioning over to Cash Shop as the majority of its sales, it's 2nd in sales only exceeded by Lineage.